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2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

European elections: What happens next in Brussels after shock results?

The European elections saw drop dramatic results in various countries and some heavy defeats for incumbent leaders. But now the results are (almost) in, it's time to look at what happens next in Brussels?

Published: 10 June 2024 18:03 CEST
European elections: What happens next in Brussels after shock results?
President of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) Manfred Weber (L) looks at as European Commission President and EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen (C) delivers a speech. Photo: JOHN THYS / AFP)

The European Parliament has tilted to the right, although the current pro-European centrist coalition held ground and is likely to form a majority again, following the European elections that took place in EU countries over the weekend.

The vote has dramatic outcomes in some countries. In France, President Emmanuel Macron called for snap parliamentary elections after the opponent far-right National Rally (Ressemblement National) gained 31 percent of the votes and his own party Rennaissance plunged to 14 percent.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo resigned after the defeat of his Flemish Liberals and Democrats party in the European and national elections.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was the second most voted party after the Christian-Democrats CDU/CSU and ahead of Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats.

As the vote count is almost completed, what happens next in Brussels?

READ ALSO: What we learned from the European elections across Europe

Political groups

Current Parliament President Roberta Metsola said on Sunday evening that leaders of European political groups will meet on Tuesday to “set up the roadmap for the constitution of the new parliament”.

The coming weeks will see the formation of the political groups, the ‘families’ of European parties that will sit (and possibly vote) together in parliament.

Based on provisional results available at the time of writing, the European People’s Party (EPP) will be the largest group, with 186 out of 720 seats, 10 more than in 2019. The EPP was the biggest group in Germany, Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Croatia and Greece.

The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) will have 135 seats, 4 less than in 2019, following losses in Germany, but having won in Sweden and come second in Spain.

The liberals of Renew, which include President Macron’s party, are expected to have 79 MEPs, compared to 102 in 2019.

The Greens, despite winning in Denmark and gaining 6 MEPs from previously unrepresented Italy, also recorded significant losses and should gain 53 MEPs compared to 71 in 2019.

The Left will maintain 36 MEPs, compared to the current 37.

The European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR), which include Giorgia Meloni’s party Brothers of Italy, the Sweden Democrats and Poland’s Law and Justice, are expected to obtain 73 seats, from the current 69.

Far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID), with Austria’s Freedom Party, France’s National Rally and Italy’s The League, was on course for 58 seats compared to 49 in 2019.

Non-attached members, which at present include Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party and Italy’s Five Star Movement, should obtain 45 seats. Other 52 elected members are yet to declare their affiliation.

Questions remain over the far right

However, some existing affiliations may change in the coming weeks, especially on the right. Will Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen join forces, as Le Pen suggested before the elections? Will Meloni try to split the EPP to form a hard-right bloc? What will be the affiliations of Germany’s AfD, recently expelled from the ID, and Hungary’s Fidesz party, which is non-attached after leaving the EPP in 2021? All these questions will be answered soon.

The non-attached and other members represent 100 mostly right-wing seats.

The formation of a political group requires at least 23 MEPs elected in at least 7 member states.

‘New’ majority

The current centrist majority formed by the EPP, the S&D and Renew is likely to be confirmed in the new parliament and its first expression will be the confidence vote for the European Commission President.

On Sunday night, incumbent Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission President candidate for the EPP, said she woulmd be looking for a coalition with the S&D and Renew. Candidates from these parties also openly said they would be keen to continue current arrangements and not seek alliances with the far-right.

Von der Leyen needs 361 votes, the absolute majority, to stay in her role. The three largest parties make up for 399, but that may not be sufficient as the confidence vote is individual and secret, and already in the previous term some EPP members voted against.

The Greens on Sunday hinted they would offer their support to maintain the status quo. But this where the ECR could play a role too.

New European Commission

The Commission President will be nominated by leaders of EU countries on June 27th to 28th considering the result of the elections.

The inaugural session of the new parliament will be from July 16th to 19th in Strasbourg, with the election of the Parliament president.

The confidence vote for the Commission president is expected in September.

In the coming months each government, in consultation with the Commission President, will also nominate a Commissioner, to which the President-elect will allocate a policy portfolio.

The relevant Parliament committees will hold hearings to evaluate and vote the nominees suitability for the roles. The Parliament will then vote its consent to the entire Commission, probably in the autumn.

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2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

What does Meloni’s EU election success mean for foreigners in Italy?

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party triumphed in this weekend's European elections, but what are the domestic implications of her soaring popularity, particularly for foreigners in the country?

Published: 11 June 2024 17:33 CEST
What does Meloni’s EU election success mean for foreigners in Italy?

As Meloni’s party took almost 29 percent of the Italian vote, headlines early this week have focused on the success of the far right in the European parliamentary elections and Meloni’s growing political clout both at home and in the EU.

It was a remarkable result, considering that in European Parliament elections in 2019 her post-fascist Brothers of Italy (FdI) party secured just six percent of the vote.

At the European level, Meloni’s party is now the biggest in the ECR grouping in parliament, and she is one of few European leaders to have emerged stronger from the weekend’s vote.

The results were also telling in Italy at national level: Italian voters told pollsters before the election that they intended to vote along the same lines as in domestic elections. Meloni had meanwhile pitched the EU vote as a referendum on her leadership, asking voters to write “Giorgia” on their ballots.

FdI took two percent more of the vote this time than at general elections in 2022, a result which seemed to confirm what polls have long told us: Meloni’s party enjoys strong and growing support.

Headlines about a swing further to the right in the polls however may suggest growing public tolerance for increasingly extreme policymaking in future.

READ ALSO: What we learned from the European elections across Europe

So does this mean Meloni’s growing popularity is a potential cause for concern for foreigners in Italy, who risk being targeted by, or otherwise losing out to, nationalist policies?

Meloni has been in power for more than 18 months already, and so far her ruling coalition hasn’t been quite as hostile to Italy’s foreign residents as some had initially feared. She is keen for her administration to present itself as relatively moderate, while tough on illegal immigration.

Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni speaks following the results of the European Elections in Rome on June 10, 2024. Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP.

And far from there being simply an overall shift rightwards, a closer look at the EU election results in Italy reveals a more nuanced picture.

There was also a good result for Meloni’s main opposition, the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), which secured 24 percent of the EU vote in Italy – higher than expected.

PD leader Elly Schlein on Monday said that her party had seen more growth than any other, and she has since begun renewed efforts to unite Italy’s left, calling for an end to divisions between parties and a push to take on Meloni’s coalition.

Schlein’s invitation was enthusiastically accepted by the smaller Left and Greens Alliance (AVS), which also saw an increase in support, though it was less clear whether PD and the Five Star Movement would reunite in future after their candidates stood separately this time around.

KEY POINTS: Who are the winners and losers of Italy’s EU election?

Overall, increased support for both PD and FdI is expected to mean a less fractured political landscape in future, replaced by a battle between two larger and more moderate forces appealing to the broader political left and right.

Meloni is not expected to revert to more extremist positions anytime soon, as her ongoing success in Italy depends on her ability to appeal to voters across the right-wing spectrum.

Her continued success in Europe and at home will also rest on her ability to maintain her carefully cultivated image as a serious politician able to wield influence at the European level.

By contrast, her coalition partner Matteo Salvini’s lurch further rightwards in an attempt to attract the anti-immigration, anti-EU protest vote saw his League party slump dramatically in the EU polls and has left him potentially facing a leadership challenge.

For now, Meloni maintains that her election success was a victory for her entire coalition government, as she aims to present a strong front on the world stage.

But the reality is that her allies, Salvini’s League and the more moderate right-wing Forza Italia (FI), each received a far smaller nine percent of the vote, and overall their popularity has waned since the 2022 elections.

League and FI voters are increasingly defecting to support Meloni, polls show. As such, there is speculation that Meloni could decide her party no longer needs the support of these allies and make a bid for greater power at – or before – the next election.

This scenario, along with Meloni’s plans to bring in unprecedented powers for prime ministers in future, would allow a future Brothers of Italy-led government to enact more extreme policies with little impediment, should they choose to.

While this is thought by some analysts to be Meloni’s long-term ambition, it’s far from guaranteed, or even particularly likely, to play out. In the world of Italian politics, the fate of any one party, politician or government can change in a remarkably short space of time.

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