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PENSIONS

Why the German pension reform is threatened with further delays

Germany's Free Democrats (FDP) say they may vote against the pension reform if it leads to higher pension contributions for workers.

Why the German pension reform is threatened with further delays
A mobility device stands outside a shop in Bad Wörishofen, Bavaria. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Karl-Josef Hildenbrand

According to a report in the Bild newspaper, a planned vote on Germany’s package of pension reforms in early July could be pushed back by months amid another round of coalition infighting.

The shake-up of pensions – termed the Rentenpaket II – faced numerous delays before being voted through in cabinet in May 29th, with the FDP raising concerns over public spending and early retirement rules.

Following the greenlight from ministers, several FDP politicians have reportedly told Bild they plan to vote against the bill in parliament if the plans would cause a hike in contributions. 

“I will not agree to any pension package that leads to higher pension contributions,” Max Mordhorst, deputy chairman of the CDU’s parliamentary youth group, told the newspaper. “The current package is a kick in the knees for all young working people.”

Bild reports that parliamentary deliberations on the pension reforms won’t begin until after deliberations over the 2025 budget are concluded on July 3rd.

This would effectively delay the discussions until after the summer recess.  

READ ALSO: Why a row has broken out in Germany over pension reforms

“We still have a lot to discuss regarding the pension package,” FDP finance politician Frank Schäffler told the daily newspaper. “One thing is clear: first we have to reach a budget agreement, then we can talk about changes to the pension package. That won’t be the case before autumn.”

A core policy of the traffic-light coalition, the Rentenpaket II aims to shore up Germany’s pension funds in future decades and guarantee a stable rate of 48 percent. 

According to the draft bill that was signed off on in cabinet in May, the proposals could lead to significant increases in the contribution rate and a more state subsidies flowing into pension insurance from 2028. 

Pension contributions in Germany are currently set at 18.6 percent of gross income, split equally between employees and employers at a rate of 9.8 percent each or paid in full by self-employed workers and freelancers.

This could potentially rise as high as 22.3 percent in the coming years, the draft law predicts. 

Germany's Finance and Labour ministers standing side by side

Hubertus Heil (right), Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, speaks alongside Christian Lindner (left), Federal Minister of Finance, during a press statement on the new planned Pension Package. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Uncertain future

In light of Germany’s aging population and longer life expectancies, there are fears that Germany will struggle to bear the weight of ballooning social costs in the future.

With the baby boomer generation entering retirement amid an ongoing shortage of younger workers, the ratio of people paying into the pensions pot compared to those taking out is becoming increasingly unbalanced.

To tackle this issue, the traffic-light’s pension reforms include plans to invest billions in the capital market and pay annual subsidies to the pension insurance from the interest earned starting in the mid-2030s. 

Without this step, pension contributions could rise to 22.7 percent over the coming decades, the government has warned. 

READ ALSO: How Germany plans to stabilise pension contributions

In recent months, social organisations have expressed concern that the proposals to stabilise pensions could become the victim of horse-trading between the three governing coalition partners. 

“The pension package must be passed before the summer break and must not be torn apart in a budget dispute,” Verena Bentele, president of the VdK social association, said in May.

“Without a stabilisation of the pension level, there is a risk that old-age and reduced earning capacity pensions will plummet in future,” she added. 

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POLITICS

Germany’s coalition government in deadlock over 2025 budget

The three parties in the German government are locked in a bitter dispute over the 2025 budget, with experts warning the stalemate could be the final straw for the uneasy coalition.

Germany's coalition government in deadlock over 2025 budget

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal FDP, who came to power in 2021, have until July 3rd, the end of the current parliamentary term, to reach a compromise.

FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a fiscal hawk, is demanding close to €30 billion in savings – which the Greens and SPD have baulked at.

The coalition has faced many rows in the past but some pundits believe this could be the one that finally blows the government apart.

“These talks will decide the coalition’s continued presence in office,” said the Süddeutsche Zeitung daily this week.

While budget discussions have been difficult before, they have never lasted this long.

“It’s much more difficult than usual,” Jacques-Pierre Gougeon, an expert on German politics at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, told AFP.

He pointed to a gloomy backdrop due to Germany’s poor performance in recent times, with Europe’s biggest economy hit hard by high inflation and a manufacturing slowdown.

READ ALSO: Scholz calls on coalition to ‘pull ourselves together’

‘Tax woes’

According to the finance ministry, tax revenues for 2025 are set to be €11 billion lower than originally forecast.

A ruling by the country’s top court in November that the coalition had contravened the constitutionally enshrined “debt brake”, a self-imposed cap on annual borrowing, has also limited room for new spending.

In addition, all three parties are increasingly worried about their own levels of support after doing badly at this month’s EU elections – in which the opposition conservative CDU-CSU bloc came first, with the far-right AfD second.

A key sticking point in discussions centres on unemployment benefits.

Lindner wants to restrict the current payouts, which he believes are too expensive and do not provide enough of an incentive to get people to return to work.

But the SPD won’t accept this. Improving benefits was central to the party’s 2021 election campaign as they sought to win back support of lower-income voters.

“Politically, the Social Democrats cannot afford to give it up,” said Gougeon.

READ ALSO: What the EU elections say about the state of politics in Germany

There is also disagreement about any measures affecting diplomacy and defence, at a time when Germany is seeking to stand up for liberal, European values and overhaul its creaking military in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is calling for an increase in his ministry’s budget, and for military spending not to be covered by the debt brake.

‘Debt disagreement’

“It would be disastrous to have to say in a few years’ time: we saved the debt brake at the expense of Ukraine and the European security order,” said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Greens.

While calls have grown for the debt rules to be relaxed, Lindner and the FDP categorically refuse to countenance any changes.

Maintaining the brake is an “existential question” for the party, according to Gougeon.

READ ALSO: What is Germany’s debt brake and how does it affect residents?

Lindner did however promise on Wednesday not to push for any savings in defence.

Scholz, Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck, from the Greens, are due to meet Sunday in an attempt to make progress.

The aim is to prevent “the budget crisis from turning into a crisis of confidence”, which could lead to new elections, according to the left-leaning daily TAZ.

The parties may ultimately compromise as the alternative — a collapse of the government – will not be in their favour.

They “know that they would be swept aside if there were new elections, and will want to avoid them”, said Gougeon.

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