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ELECTIONS

Paris stock exchange sinks amid France’s political turmoil

The Paris stock exchange sank more than two percent Friday, erasing its gains for the year, as traders fret over the fallout from French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap elections.

Paris stock exchange sinks amid France's political turmoil
France's stock exchange the CAC 40 sank amid the French political turmoil. Photo by ERIC PIERMONT / AFP

The CAC 40 of French blue-chip stocks shed 2.4 percent to 7,519.78 points at around midday compared to the previous day’s close. It has now fall six percent for the week.

Macron on Sunday stunned France by calling snap legislative elections for June 30th, with a second round on July 7th, after Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party scored more than double the number of votes of his centrist alliance.

Paris’ benchmark CAC 40 stocks index tanked by more than two percent around the half-way stage on Friday.

Milan sank 2.8 percent while Frankfurt shed 1.2 percent. Outside the eurozone, London lost 0.5 percent. The euro fell to $1.0684 from $1.0746 the previous day.

XTB trading platform analyst Kathleen Brooks said “more volatility” could be in the offing in the lead-up to the first round of the French elections.

“The risk of a win for Marine Le Pen and a shift in parliamentary power in France to the hard right is fuelling the selloff in French stocks, and the selloff in French banks in particular,” she said.

Meanwhile French business leaders have sounded the alarm over what they describe as the ‘vague and uncosted’ economic plans of Le Pen’s party.

The move has sparked a period of political uncertainty in Europe’s second-biggest economy and across the European Union as voting elsewhere saw a shift away from the centre.

French left-wing star Raphaël Glucksmann on Friday threw his weight behind a new coalition of the left in the runup to the historic elections, while Le Pen pledged a national unity government if her party wins.

“Soaring borrowing costs are already hitting the French government, as the perceived risk attached to a potential victory for the far right pushed the cost of sovereign debt higher,” warned Shore Markets analyst Joshua Mahony.

In Asia on Friday, the yen dropped against the dollar and Japanese shares rose as the Bank of Japan said it would trim its vast hoard of government bonds as it cautiously steps away from its long-running ultra-loose monetary policy.

The central bank also kept interest rates unchanged after a two-day meeting.

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ELECTIONS

Will Macron resign in case of a French election disaster?

The polling is not looking good for president Emmanuel Macron's party in the snap elections that he called just two weeks ago. So will he resign if it all goes wrong?

Will Macron resign in case of a French election disaster?

On Sunday, June 9th, the French president stunned Europe when he called snap parliamentary elections in France, in the wake of humiliating results for his centrist group in the European elections.

The French president has the power to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections – but this power is rarely used and in recent decades French parliaments have run on fixed terms. Very few people predicted Macron’s move.

But polling for the fresh elections (held over two rounds on June 30th and July 7th) is looking very bad for the president’s centrist Renaissance party – currently trailing third behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National and the combined leftist group Nouveau Front Populaire.

Listen to the team from The Local discussing all the election latest in the new episode of the Talking France podcast. Download here or listen on the link below

The election was a gamble for Macron – but if his gamble fails will he resign?

What does the law and the constitution say?

Legally, Macron does not need to resign. In France the presidential and the parliamentary elections are separate – Macron himself was re-elected in 2022 with a five-year mandate (until May 2027).

His party failing to gain a parliamentary majority does not change that – in fact the centrists failed to gain a overall majority in the 2022 parliamentary elections too (although they remained the largest party). Since then, the government has limped on, managing to pass some legislation by using constitutional powers.

The constitution also offers no compulsion or even a suggestion that the president should resign if he fails to form a government.

In fact the current constitution (France has had five) gives a significant amount of power to the president at the expense of parliament – the president has the power to dissolve parliament (as Macron has demonstrated), to set policy on areas including defence and diplomacy and to bypass parliament entirely and force through legislation (through the tool known as Article 49.3). 

In fact there are only three reasons in the constitution that a president would finish their term of office early; resigning, dying in office or being the subject of impeachment proceedings.

Since 1958, only one president has resigned – Charles de Gaulle quit in 1969 after the failure of a referendum that he had backed. He died 18 months later, at the age of 79.  

OK, but is he likely to resign?

He says not. In an open letter to the French people published over the weekend, Macron wrote: “You can trust me to act until May 2027 as your president, protector at every moment of our republic, our values, respectful of pluralism and your choices, at your service and that of the nation.”

He insisted that the coming vote was “neither a presidential election, nor a vote of confidence in the president of the republic” but a response to “a single question: who should govern France?”

So it looks likely that Macron will stay put.

And he wouldn’t be the first French president to continue in office despite his party having failed to win a parliamentary majority – presidents François Mitterand and Jacques Chirac both served part of their term in office in a ‘cohabitation‘ – the term for when the president is forced to appoint an opposition politician as prime minister.

But should he resign?

The choice to call the snap elections was Macron’s decision, it seems he took the decision after discussing it just a few close advisers and it surprised and/or infuriated even senior people in his own party.

If the poll leads to political chaos then, many will blame Macron personally and there will be many people calling for his resignation (although that’s hardly new – Macron démission has been a regular cry from political opponents over the last seven years as he enacted policies that they didn’t like).

Regardless of the morality of dealing with the fallout of your own errors, there is also the practicality – if current polling is to be believed, none of the parties are set to achieve an overall majority and the likely result with be an extremely protracted and messy stalemate with unstable governments, fragile coalitions and caretaker prime ministers. It might make sense to have some stability at the top, even if that figure is extremely personally unpopular.

He may leave the country immediately after the result of the second round, however. Washington is hosting a NATO summit on July 9th-11th and a French president would normally attend that as a representative of a key NATO member. 

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