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What would a second Trump presidency mean for Germany?

As German media turns its focus increasingly on the US Presidential election, The Local takes a look at what exactly a second Trump term could mean for Germany.

Published: 22 July 2024 16:43 CEST
Trump on stage
Former US President and 2024 presidential nominee Donald Trump gestures after speaking during a campaign rally with US Senator and vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

As with major media outlets around the globe, the German media is currently obsessed with the US presidential election.

A glance at the front page of Germany’s leading news outlets on Monday July 22nd reveals that US President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the next presidential election is the biggest news of the day, even in Germany.

At time of writing, the top stories on virtually every German news website are about Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and the US election.

While Biden and Harris have stolen the spotlight for now, perhaps no US character has dominated the German media landscape in recent history quite like former President Donald Trump. Even as of 2021 (following the last election cycle) Trump had been featured on the cover of Der Spiegel, Germany’s best-selling weekly news magazine, 28 times.

More recently, Trump’s presidential election bid has brought him back to Spiegel’s focus. On the cover of the latest issue, published July 20th 2024, a red baseball cap is seen with a splotch of blood dripping off the side – a dramatic visual reference to the assassination attempt that resulted in an injury to Trump’s ear.

But Germany’s nervous obsession with US politics is not without reason. It is widely understood that the US’ next choice of president will have a direct impact on Europe, specifically around international security and trade issues, and Germany in particular is positioned to be strongly impacted.

Here’s a look at how a second Trump term could affect Germany.

Security

Perhaps the most immediate threat to Germany, should Trump take the helm in the US for a second term, is an emboldened Russia at Europe’s doorstep.

Trump’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin is well-known. Shortly after Putin began his invasion of Ukraine, Trump reportedly called the move “genius” and “savvy”.

Trump Putin handshake

US President Donald Trump (R) attends a meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin during the G20 summit. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)

More recently, Trump has criticised the Biden administration for supporting Ukraine with billions in weapons and defence funding. According to reporting by Reuters, Trump’s top advisers have devised a plan to cease weapons deliveries to Ukraine unless the country engages in “peace” talks with Russia.

German top officials, however, are wary of letting Russia achieve victory in Ukraine – fearing that an emboldened Russia is more likely to take its chances pushing further into other European countries.

German defence minister Boris Pistorius has previously warned that Russia may attack a NATO country within “five to eight years”. 

READ ALSO: What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Additionally, NATO itself is threatened by another Trump presidency. Trump has long been critical of the treaty, claiming that the US bears an outsized burden of its cost.

At a campaign rally this year, speaking about NATO countries who have not met suggested defence spending levels, Trump said: “I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want”.

Trump’s recently appointed running mate, J.D. Vance, echoed this sentiment in a recent op-ed published by Financial Times, in which he said that Germany relies on “borrowed military strength”.

Germany is among the NATO countries that has not maintained a defence budget equal to two percent of its national GDP until recent years. In an effort to hit that target, Germany recently allocated a ‘Bundeswehr special fund’ to bolster its defence budget. But significant budget gaps remain.

READ ALSO: How can Germany meet NATO’s two percent defence spending target?

Earlier this month US President Biden and Chancellor Scholz announced a plan to station longer-range US missile systems in Germany. This can be seen, at least in part, as a move meant to bring the US and Germany closer together ahead of a possible Trump presidency.

Trade

Beyond security issues, the US presidential election will be a pivotal moment for the global economy, and for US and European trade relations.

Trump’s ‘America-first’ trade policy is based on import tariffs, which could be expected to increase in a tit-for-tat fashion, pushing the US into a potential trade war with the EU that would also impact the German economy.

Trump’s current plan involves a 10 percent tariff on worldwide imports to the US, and further tariffs from 60 percent or more on all imports from China.

The German Economic Institute (IW) has estimated that these proposed tariffs, combined with Chinese counter-tariffs would cost Germany €150 billion by 2028, which would be enough to cut the country’s annual economic growth by 1.4 percent of GDP and likely bring an economic depression. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit analysed which countries faced the highest risk in the event of a second Trump term, creating a Trump Risk Index (TRI).

According to the TRI, close US partners would be among the most affected, with Germany scoring 3rd highest for overall risk, behind Mexico and Costa Rica.

The report notes that “Germany and Ireland are assessed to be the most exposed geographies in Europe” for negative trade impacts. This is primarily because Germany maintains a high trade surplus with the US, which would likely take a significant hit following the increase of import tariffs there.

Climate

Anyone familiar with Trump’s rhetoric should not be surprised that he and Vance referred to climate change as the “green new scam” in recent speeches, and suggested that prosperity in the US requires more fossil fuel development.

“We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute fortune with its energy,” Trump said in a speech at the Republican National Convention, disregarding the fact that damages due to climate change are already projected to cost $38 trillion (€35 trillion) a year globally by 2050.

While the President of the US doesn’t have the authority to directly interfere with Germany’s own climate policy, another Trump term would be a catastrophic step backward for US climate policy, which would ultimately add to the intensifying climate effects already being felt in Germany.

Fuelling far-right aspirations

Trump’s fans in Germany tend to be from far-right, populist parties. For example, AfD party leader Alice Wiedel recently said she was keeping her fingers crossed for Trump on a ZDF tv show.

Wiedel cited Trump’s promise to end financial support to Ukraine as her main reason for siding with him. 

BLM protest in Berlin

A protester outside the US Embassy holds a sign reading “No Trump, no KKK, no racist USA” during a demonstration in connection with the death of George Floyd on May 30, 2020. In Berlin, as in the US, Trump’s opponents see him as a symbol of far-right, fascist ideologies. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP)

But Trump’s platform has a number of similarities to Europe’s far-right parties, and there is reason to believe that a Trump victory across the Atlantic could bolster support for the AfD or other alt-right parties in Germany. 

In a recent interview, Club of Rome co-President Sandrine Dixson-Declève told The Local that the more right wing governments take power, the more they feel emboldened to step toward authoritarianism.

READ ALSO: INTERVIEW – ‘Failed climate policies are fuelling far-right politics in Germany’

Of populist politicians and upcoming elections in Europe Dixson-Declève said, “They talk like Trump. They walk like Trump…It’s absolutely fundamental to vote, so that we don’t slide to the right across Europe.”

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READER INSIGHTS

‘Told to leave the country’: How foreigners in Germany face xenophobia and racism

In a recent survey, the majority of The Local readers said they felt xenophobia and racism was on the rise in Germany, but personal experiences varied dramatically. Here's what readers said.

Published: 5 September 2024 16:42 CEST
'Told to leave the country': How foreigners in Germany face xenophobia and racism

The word xenophobia comes from the Greek words xénos (foreign) and phóbos (fear), and is defined as the dislike of anything foreign or strange. 

It tends to stem from the perception of a conflict between an in-group and an out-group, and often is related to the fear of losing a national, ethnic, or racial identity.

While xenophobia itself refers primarily to the fear experienced by someone, the danger is that xenophobic sentiments lead to racist behaviour–and sometimes violence.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has promoted xenophobic rhetoric for years.

In an investigation into the party earlier this year, Germany’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) identified numerous statements made by AfD officials that questioned if foreign nationals belonged to the German nation, regardless of their level of integration, or even German citizenship.

Partly due to their propensity for promoting xenophobic ideas, the BfV labelled the AfD as an “suspected extremist” organisation – and in the state of Saxony, the local AfD branch was found to be a “confirmed extremist” organisation.

READ ALSO: Germany labels Saxony branch of far-right AfD as extremist

Given the AfD’s strong showing in the recent state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, some are concerned that xenophobia and related racist acts could be on the rise in Germany. 

In a recent survey, we asked our readers if they have experienced a rise in xenophobia or discrimination towards foreigners in Germany.

Of the readers who immediately responded, 58.3 percent said they had noticed a rise, whereas 41.7 percent said they had not.

xenophobia graph

What does xenophobia look like?

In its most raw and ugly form, xenophobia manifests as grotesque acts of racism.

A 35-year-old from Kenya who chose not to share their name told The Local that they were called a racial slur and “shown the Hitler salute” recently while on a boat ride in Lübbenau.

For the record, demonstrating a Hitler salute (also called a Nazi salute or Hitlergruß) is illegal in Germany, along with hate speech, and is punishable by up to three years in prison.

READ ALSO: FACT CHECK – Are people punished for using Nazi slogans in Germany?

But xenophobia is also often expressed with more subtlety.

Jamey, 45, from the US described a situation while camping in Saxony where the campground hosts talked down to him and those he was with, implying they were stupid because they were not German.

Another reader from India explained that xenophobia doesn’t always lead to direct confrontations, but can lead to a palpable sense that people are avoiding you: “Be it at a grocery store, a bus stop or a walk in the neighbourhood,” they said. 

The reader estimated that in their experience roughly 25 percent of people might avoid them or engage in some form of evasion, but that it was enough to make them feel uncomfortable and unwelcome.

Many respondents who said they felt xenophobia was increasing cited indirect acts like this, or otherwise verbal altercations, as being the primary example of racism they had experienced.

“It is mostly about smaller things so far,” said a 35-year-old from the Balkans, “But I’ve heard people shout hostile things at foreigners in the street a couple of times in the past year, which I personally didn’t experience before.” They added that they’ve lived in Germany for six and half years.

You might not notice it if you ‘look German’

A number of respondents who said they had not observed a rise in xenophobia or racism directly also noted that they might not immediately be perceived as foreigners themselves.

One respondent who told The Local that she had “not experienced any racism myself,” added that she’s a “white American” with German heritage.

For his part Ali, 56, from London said, “Only once or twice have I ever felt negatively treated as a foreigner here. But it’s not obvious I’m foreign until I open my mouth.”

Another respondent from Finland said that “as a white immigrant” that experience xenophobia “far less than people of colour”.

How does xenophobia affect work and day to day life?

Of those who had experienced xenophobia or racist acts in Germany, quite a few cited experiences in the workplace.

Elvis, who didn’t offer details about his age or location, said that one of his co-workers had referred to him as a “bush man”, and another had reacted with obscenities after seeing him with his wife.

He added that he’s worried rhetoric used by AfD leaders is increasing fear and intolerance of foreigners.

In less severe instances–though still hurtful and problematic–xenophobia in the workplace can come in the form of indirect comments. In some cases people might not even realise that their comments are rooted in xenophobic ideologies.

Carla, 47, from Portugal told The Local that “In the early days at my job, it was common to hear that ‘it was cheaper to hire a southerner than a German for my position’ and ‘I don’t understand why [the company] would hire someone that doesn’t speak German’”.

She added that she has since learned to speak German.

Beyond the workplace, some readers reported experiencing prejudice or racism in other public spaces.

“In the hospital some nurses were behaving in an openly racist manner”, said Hilary, 77, from the UK. Fortunately in her case, others stepped in “to ‘correct’ them”.

Erdi, 35, from Turkey, was also the victim of racist speech recently. He told The Local, “After my two-year-old son had a conflict with a German kid, their parents threatened us, telling us to leave the country if my son would continue to behave like this.”

READ ALSO: ‘I’m worried for my kids’: Foreigners in Germany fearful over rise of far right

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