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FINANCE

Cabinet backs wider ban on naked short trading

Germany's cabinet on Wednesday approved a draft law expanding a ban on naked short selling which angered its international partners to include all stocks traded in Germany.

Cabinet backs wider ban on naked short trading
Photo: DPA

The ban “concerns securities that are registered on a regulated German market,” a Finance Ministry spokesman said.

It also encompasses certain trades on currencies that are not used for hedging purposes, although this can be implemented in times of crisis, not as a permanent measure – a slight watering-down of the original proposals.

A previous version of the draft law had envisaged a complete ban on short selling currency derivatives.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on Wednesday said naked short selling had been used on a “no longer controllable scale” during the recent eurozone financial crisis sparked by Greece’s debt problems.

“That’s why were are banning them,” he said.

Last month, Germany rocked its European partners and roiled markets worldwide by unveiling, out of the blue, a ban on naked short selling of sovereign bonds and credit default swaps.

The surprise move, by Germany’s financial regulator, was introduced unilaterally and without informing other G20 countries.

Naked short selling is effectively a bet that a certain stock or government bond will go down on the markets. But unlike conventional short selling, a trader does not even borrow the stock or bond before it is traded.

The practice came under fire as the Greek debt crisis escalated. Many analysts said that such trades artificially inflated Greece’s funding costs.

Critics of the practice also say it can create highly damaging volatility on financial markets.

However, most short selling takes place in London and it is not a common practice in Germany.

Defending the ban at the time, Berlin said it wished to “send out a clear signal to the markets that we want to act where we are able to … in order to tackle excessive speculation.”

The draft bill now passes to the German parliament, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right coalition holds a clear majority.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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