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SWISS ECONOMY

Index shows Swiss economy slowing further

A key economic indicator for Switzerland suggests that the country lost momentum for the second month running in November, the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) said on Friday.

Blaming "less favourable foreign sales opportunities" for "putting a damper on the development of Swiss industry," analysts from the respected federal institute said its index fell 0.14 points over the month to 1.50.

In October, the barometer "was still as high as 1.64," KOF said in a statement, adding that the figure had been revised down from 1.67.

Researchers at KOF said consumption continued to drive the Swiss economy, but cautioned that its analysis of GDP excluding construction and banking "indicates somewhat gloomier prospects."

Furthermore, the construction sector also appeared to be weakening, while only the banking sector showed positive development, KOF added.

The monthly forecast follows the surprise news on Thursday that Swiss gross domestic product picked up by 0.6-percent in the third quarter compared with second quarter and was up 1.4-percent year-on-year, in contrast with the European Union which has officially entered into recession.

Swiss growth was due to an increase in public expenditure, selected exports and, to a lesser extent, consumer spending, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said.

Economists, meanwhile, have greeted SECO's positive economic data more circumspectly, warning that the export-heavy Swiss economy could be vulnerable to further deteriorating conditions in Europe, its main trading partner.

Switzerland has faced a central macroeconomic problem during the worst of the eurozone debt crisis, because funds seeking shelter from risk flowed into the Swiss franc, pushing it up and handicapping the Swiss export and tourism sectors.

The central bank has responded with an aggressive strategy of currency intervention to hold the value of the franc down.

Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, but its economy is highly exposed to the health of activity in the eurozone and European Union, which is sluggish.

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SWISS ECONOMY

Swiss economic slump is ‘less serious than feared’

Switzerland's economy has withstood the coronavirus pandemic and should be able to return to its pre-crisis level at the end of next year, a government agency said on Monday.

Swiss economic slump is 'less serious than feared'
The forecast for Switzerland's economy is less dire than a few months ago. Photo by AFP

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), after Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed in April, “the Swiss economy started to swiftly recover, with both consumer and investment demand exceeding expectations in the second quarter”. 

“Overall, the first half of 2020 is less negative than assumed in the June forecast”, the agency added.

Swiss GDP will drop 3.8 percent in 2020, the largest decline the country has experienced since 1975, SECO said.

However, this figure is much lower than the prediction made in June, which expected a decline of 6.2 percent.

SECO also expects an average annual unemployment rate of 3.2 percent against a forecast of 3.8 percent in June.

READ MORE: Coronavirus: Switzerland sees economic resurgence despite fears of second wave 

This renewed optimism is based on a solid recovery from the end of April, when containment measures ended.

According to SECO, the first half of 2020 was marked by a strong return to consumption and investments, with limited recourse to partial unemployment.

However, not all economic sectors are out of the woods yet: part of the manufacturing industry, as well as the international tourism and hospitality sector “have experienced a weaker recovery”.

But despite the slow rebound, a recent study shows that he country’s economy remains the strongest in the world. 

Another study also found that Switzerland’s capacity to rebound from the pandemic is among the best in the world.

This is due to the combination of “world class governance with high levels of social capital and high social resilience. The Swiss also have strong financial systems, manageable debt levels and good health system resilience”. 

 


 

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