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Survey: Swiss optimistic about Brexit effect

Most Swiss now think Brexit will have a positive effect on Switzerland, according to a new survey.

Survey: Swiss optimistic about Brexit effect
Many Swiss reportedly now see Britain as an ally. Photo: Chris J Ratcliffe/AFP

The survey of 1,010 people, conducted by research institute gfs.bern on behalf of Swiss bank Credit Suisse, found that 55 percent of respondents think economic benefits are likely following Britain’s decision to leave the EU, with some even seeing “major benefits for the Swiss economy”.

Meanwhile 54 percent think Brexit will have a positive impact on the negotiations between Switzerland and the EU over Switzerland’s self-imposed requirement to implement immigration curbs by February 2017.

“Optimism is not only apparent among those who are fundamentally critical of the bilateral agreements, but also among those who support the agreements,” said Credit Suisse in a statement.

By contrast, under 30 percent of respondents thought Britain’s exit would have economic and political disadvantages for Switzerland, with less than ten percent fearing “major disadvantages”.

Only very few – under ten percent – had no opinion about Brexit’s affect on Switzerland, showing that the topic was “of high interest” in the country, said Lukas Golder, co-head of the gfs.bern institute.

Speaking to The Local, Golder said he was initially surprised by the level of optimism but then became “convinced that this result really represents what is happening in Switzerland”.

The survey was conducted over a three-week period following the Brexit referendum and showed optimism growing as time passed, he said.

“We saw that optimism was really rising and insecurity and pessimism were really reducing from week to week, first in the economic and [then] in the political context.”

While the survey did not question people about why they were optimistic, Golder said he thought the British decision was increasingly seen by many Swiss as vindicating Switzerland’s own position outside the EU.

Since the financial crisis “there was a high level of uncertainty in the identity of Switzerland,” he said, but that has strengthened in the last two years and now “we are quite convinced that our independent way is very successful”.

The country now feels it has “a real ally” in Great Britain, he added.

“[Initially] there was uncertainty because of Brexit and then people really formed their own opinions and this was more guided by their own optimism that Switzerland is on the right [path].”

Golder also said confidence was high among the Swiss public regarding the country’s negotiations with the EU, despite the fact they have been complicated by Britain’s decision to leave the bloc.

Switzerland has until February 2017 to find a way to implement the principle of immigration quotas, approved in a 2014 public vote, without contravening its bilateral agreement with the EU over the free movement of people.

The EU froze its negotiations with Switzerland while Britain decided its future, and since the shock result of the British referendum the alpine country has been unable to find a deal.

Many fear the EU is so preoccupied with the British question that Switzerland may not be able to find a mutually satisfactory deal before the February deadline, forcing the country to implement a unilateral solution which could then jeopardize Swiss-EU relations.

However the survey showed the “high level of self confidence the country has at the moment,” Golder told The Local.

“It’s not that they [the public] are not aware that there is a problem of negotiation, and maybe that these negotiations are even harder to have than before. People know that, but they still think that it needs both parties and that we have enough to offer so that the EU may really be ready to negotiate still.”

The Brexit opinion survey forms part of the wider Credit Suisse Worry Barometer, which collates annual data on the biggest worries of the Swiss population. The full survey will be published in November.

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IMMIGRATION

‘Shift to the right’: How European nations are tightening migration policies

The success of far-right parties in elections in key European countries is prompting even centrist and left-wing governments to tighten policies on migration, creating cracks in unity and sparking concern among activists.

'Shift to the right': How European nations are tightening migration policies

With the German far right coming out on top in two state elections earlier this month, the socialist-led national Berlin government has reimposed border controls on Western frontiers that are supposed to see freedom of movement in the European Union’s Schengen zone.

The Netherlands government, which includes the party of Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, announced Wednesday that it had requested from Brussels an opt-out from EU rules on asylum, with Prime Minister Dick Schoof declaring that there was an asylum “crisis”.

Meanwhile, new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the left-wing Labour Party paid a visit to Rome for talks with Italian counterpart Georgia Meloni, whose party has neo-fascist roots, to discuss the strategies used by Italy in seeking to reduce migration.

Far-right parties performed strongly in June European elections, coming out on top in France, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call snap elections which resulted in right-winger Michel Barnier, who has previously called for a moratorium on migration, being named prime minister.

We are witnessing the “continuation of a rightward shift in migration policies in the European Union,” said Jerome Vignon, migration advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute think-tank.

It reflected the rise of far-right parties in the European elections in June, and more recently in the two regional elections in Germany, he said, referring to a “quite clearly protectionist and conservative trend”.

Strong message

“Anti-immigration positions that were previously the preserve of the extreme right are now contaminating centre-right parties, even centre-left parties like the Social Democrats” in Germany, added Florian Trauner, a migration specialist at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, the Dutch-speaking university in Brussels.

While the Labour government in London has ditched its right-wing Conservative predecessor administration’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, there is clearly interest in a deal Italy has struck with Albania to detain and process migrants there.

Within the European Union, Cyprus has suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrian applicants, while laws have appeared authorising pushbacks at the border in Finland and Lithuania.

Under the pretext of dealing with “emergency” or “crisis” situations, the list of exemptions and deviations from the common rules defined by the European Union continues to grow.

All this flies in the face of the new EU migration pact, agreed only in May and coming into force in 2026.

In the wake of deadly attacks in Mannheim and most recently Solingen blamed on radical Islamists, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government also expelled 28 Afghans back to their home country for the first time since the Taliban takeover of Kabul.

Such gestures from Germany are all the more symbolic given how the country since World War II has tried to turn itself into a model of integration, taking in a million refugees, mainly Syrians in 2015-2016 and then more than a million Ukrainian exiles since the Russian invasion.

Germany is sending a “strong message” to its own public as well as to its European partners, said Trauner.

The migratory pressure “remains significant” with more than 500,000 asylum applications registered in the European Union for the first six months of the year, he said.

‘Climate on impunity’

Germany, which received about a quarter of them alone, criticises the countries of southern Europe for allowing migrants to circulate without processing their asylum applications, but southern states denounce a lack of solidarity of the rest of Europe.

The moves by Germany were condemned by EU allies including Greece and Poland, but Scholz received the perhaps unwelcome accolade of praise from Hungarian right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Moscow’s closest friend in the European Union, when he declared “welcome to the club”.

The EU Commission’s failure to hold countries to account “only fosters a climate of impunity where unilateral migration policies and practices can proliferate,” said Adriana Tidona, Amnesty International’s Migration Researcher.

But behind the rhetoric, all European states are also aware of the crucial role played by migrants in keeping sectors going including transport and healthcare, as well as the importance of attracting skilled labour.

“Behind the symbolic speeches, European leaders, particularly German ones, remain pragmatic: border controls are targeted,” said Sophie Meiners, a migration researcher with the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Even Meloni’s government has allowed the entry into Italy of 452,000 foreign workers for the period 2023-2025.

“In parallel to this kind of new restrictive measures, they know they need to address skilled labour needs,” she said.

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