SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

‘The AfD have taken the place of Merkel’s CDU on the right of German politics’

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) caused an earthquake in the German political landscape by taking 12.6 percent of the vote in the national election on Sunday. The Local spoke to Germans who see the party as a force for good.

'The AfD have taken the place of Merkel’s CDU on the right of German politics'
AfD supporters in Hamburg in 2015. Photo: DPA.

“Honestly speaking, on several occasions I reviewed my conscience and asked myself whether this party was actually radically right-wing before I decided it wasn't,” Berlin native Martin admits.

He says he has concerns that extremists might take over the party and adds that he doesn't like it when their supporters “go too far and start screaming for asylum seekers to get out.”

Nonetheless, refugees were at the forefront of his mind when he entered the polling booth and put a cross next to the AfD. He describes the government's decision to open German borders to refugees in the late summer of 2015 as leading to “uncontrolled migration” that has allowed “terrorists, murderers and rapists” into the country. He also states his belief that many people who came to the country weren't really fleeing from persecution.

“Merkel should have at least got authorization from the German parliament before opening the border,” he says. “Instead she did her thing without any debate or coordination with German citizens. The controlled and orderly distribution of migrants to all EU countries from the outset subsequently didn’t happen.”

It is dangerous to make generalizations about what makes a typical AfD voter. Studies show that stereotypes about them being poor or badly educated don't bear much relation to reality. 

READ ALSO: Why Israel doesn't really know how to deal with the AfD

But a clear trend is that the far-right party are much more popular in east Germany than in the west, and that they are more popular among men than women. Indeed, if east German men had decided the outcome of the election alone, the AfD would now be forming the government as Germany's largest party.

Martin himself grew up in east Germany. But the 29-year-old doesn't fit the rest of the stereotype of an AfD voter. A young Berliner, he works in the media industry and says he has a multicultural groups of friends.

He refers to his east German roots when talking about an AfD campaign poster which encouraged Germans to have more kids with a picture of a heavily pregnant white woman.

“I grew up in east Germany in the 90s when we had a demographic problem and Germans needed to have more kids,” Martin explains, adding that he can’t understand why bringing up this issue twenty years later is racist.

An AfD campaign poster spotted in Berlin before the election in September. It reads: “'New Germans?' We'll make them ourselves.” Photo: Shelley Pascual.

‘They are the new CDU’

While the AfD performed most strongly in former East Germany, they are far from a phenomenon that can simply be blamed on “backward Ossis.” Across the former west they increased their vote share in comparison with the last election in 2013.

In Lower Saxony, they won 9.1 percent of the vote, beating the Greens, a party with a much longer tradition of support in the former west. 

Jan, a lawyer in his 40s based in Lower Saxony, says he had previously voted for Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for 20 years, but couldn't bring himself to do so this time because that would be “putting Germany as a whole in danger.” 

“The CDU moved far to the left, leaving an open space on the right. This space has now been filled by the AfD,” he said. 

Like Martin, the refugee policy pursued by the Merkel government was clearly the decisive factor that led him to desert her CDU party.

The refugees who arrived in late 2015 were primarily “not the clever and well-educated Syrians who had already left Syria for attractive countries like the US, Canada or Australia before the migrant wave,” he claims.

“It’s almost impossible to get rid of people who come here and don’t want to support German society. So I thought there was a need for a movement that spoke up against this.”

Jan stresses that, after thinking long and hard about it, he didn't end up voting vote for the AfD, but he calls them “good for democracy.”

There are two groups of foreigners in Germany, he says: “those who damage the state by doing things like selling drugs or taking advantage of social benefits and those who come to Germany intending to work hard and to contribute towards the state.”

“If the other parties had listened to what their voters and their party members were telling them, and if people had been allowed to voice their concerns critically about migration, the AfD wouldn’t exist today,” he argues.

SEE ALSO: Petry, co-leader of far-right AfD, to quit party altogether as strife deepens

‘Not a big fan of globalization’

Ramon D’Avila, a German-American communications consultant based in Braunschweig, Lower Saxony, stresses that he isn't against immigration per se. He has himself lived in countries such as Slovakia and Vietnam.

“What I am against however is migrating to a country with the expectation to benefit from social welfare,” said the 32-year-old, who gave his first and second vote to the AfD.

He states that when people from certain parts of the world bring with them cultures and religions that clash with German society, this is “not good for western values in general. People who are Muslims are welcome in Germany, but their ideology isn't.”

An asylum seeker arriving in Munich in September 2015. Photo: DPA.

But he makes clear that it isn't just immigration policy that struck a chord with him. He also likes the AfD's emphasis on national sovereignty.

“I'm not a big fan of globalization. In general I am a supporter for each country to be able to govern its own affairs whether here in Europe or on another continent,” he says.

The AfD courted controversy throughout the election campaign, with their campaign leader Alexander Gauland calling for a left-wing politician with Turkish roots to be “dumped” in eastern Turkey. He also said that Germany should “be proud” of the achievements of its soldiers in the Second World War.

But D’Avila doesn’t think a party entering the Bundestag that had provocative campaign posters and represented by politicians such as Gauland reflects badly on Germany.

“Germany occupies a special place in history, but a lot of people kind of exploit this to their advantage. No other countries have a clean slate,” he states.

For D'Avila, the AfD has opened up discussions that have been taboo for far too long; he considers the party to be a beacon of change.

“The result of this election provides the chance to actually see what a new party is able to do. [Let's] see how they’re going to act in parliament and let their actions prove what they really think and want to do.”

With Jörg Luyken

SEE ALSO: What we learned from the German national election

For members

POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

SHOW COMMENTS