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Merkel vows to ‘win back trust’ after Bavaria poll debacle

German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Monday to "win back trust" from voters after squabbling within her three-party coalition was blamed for severe election losses in the state of Bavaria.

Merkel vows to 'win back trust' after Bavaria poll debacle
Angela Merkel on Monday. Photo: DPA

Looking back at a turbulent year since 2017 general elections, which saw painful coalition talks followed by harsh infighting on immigration, she conceded that “a lot of trust has been lost”.

Her lesson from Sunday's Bavaria polls, where her governing partners the CSU and the SPD suffered heavy losses, was that “I as the chancellor must do more to ensure that this trust is there”.

Her own Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the CSU “can be expected to act in a united way,” she said, pointing to her deep rift with the CSU's hardline Interior Minister Horst Seehofer.

The governing parties were in shell-shock after Sunday's regional election, where the CSU took a 10-point dive to 37 percent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s.

Merkel's other national coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), dropped to 9.7 percent, halving their support in their worst-ever result in any state poll.

'Brutal losses' 

The biggest winners Sunday were the opposition Greens, who surged to become Bavaria's second strongest party with 17.5 percent, drawing support especially in big cities like Munich.

SEE ALSO: The winners and losers – 7 things you need to know about the Bavarian elections

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has railed against Merkel's 2015 decision to keep open German borders to a mass influx of refugees and migrants, scored 10 percent.

Their success was cheered by right-wing leaders including Marine Le Pen of France and Italy's Matteo Salvini, who said that “in Bavaria, change has won”.

The AfD's Alice Weidel jubilantly declared that Merkel's government “is not a grand coalition but a mini coalition” and demanded she “clear the way for new elections”.

The poll debacle cast a dark cloud over Merkel's troubled grand coalition, dubbed the “GroKo”, said Der Spiegel.

“The Bavaria election has made an early end to the GroKo much more likely,” it said.  “Two of three partners in the GroKo have suffered brutal losses. The third, Angela Merkel's CDU, fears the consequences.”

Shattered certainties 

The Bavaria poll result shattered old certainties for the CSU, which has ruled almost single-handedly for decades in the southern state known for its fairytale castles, Oktoberfest and crucifixes on classroom walls.

Since the mass migrant arrivals, in which Bavaria was Germany's frontline state, the CSU has adopted far tougher anti-immigration and law and order positions.

Nonetheless, they and other big parties took heavy losses in 2017 federal elections to the AfD, which became the first right-wing extremist party to enter the German parliament in significant numbers.

The CSU's Seehofer has harshly criticised Merkel and the SPD over their more liberal stance on immigration, twice bringing their alliance to the brink of collapse.

The political battles, one centred on securing German borders against asylum seekers, have distracted Merkel's fourth-term government and angered voters.

After Sunday's election, Seehofer, 69, insisted he would stay on as minister, even as a poll for news weekly Focus said 46 percent of Germans blame him and his brinkmanship for the CSU's historically-poor result.

Merkel's 'litmus test' 

The Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily said,  following what it labelled a new milestone in the decline of German mainstream parties, Merkel's coalition now has a stark choice: a return to “common sense, or new elections”.

The SPD's deputy leader Ralf Stegner told Phoenix TV that “the citizens delivered a resounding slap” to the governing parties and that, unless they change, “the grand coalition won't last much longer”.

In Berlin, the GroKo leaders are now nervously looking ahead to another landmark regional vote at the end of the month.

Voters go to the polls on October 28 in central Hesse state, home to the financial hub Frankfurt, where polls say Merkel ally Volker Bouffier will face an uphill battle to stay on as state premier.

Die Welt daily said the regional vote will be “the litmus test” for Merkel, who is running for re-election as CDU party chief in December, stressing that “Merkel's future could be decided in Hesse”.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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