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Merkel: People’s parties are ‘in danger’

In light of falling poll results, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sees the status of the Christian Democrats (CDU) as a people's party in danger. Is there hope before the elections in Hesse this Sunday?

Published: 22 October 2018 10:36 CEST
Merkel: People's parties are 'in danger'
The CDU's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hesse Minister President Volker Bouffier on Sunday. Photo: DPA

If Germans continues to dwell on what could have been done differently with the refugee policy in 2015, rather than focusing on the party’s current agenda, “then we will lose the character of a people's party,” the party leader warned on Saturday at the state party conference of the Thuringian CDU.

The Chancellor further warned against “left experiments” before the state elections in Hesse next Sunday.

Both the CDU and SPD currently fear severe losses in the Hesse election this upcoming Sunday. According to the latest polls, the CDU stands to receive 26 percent of the vote, the Greens 20 to 22 percent, and and the SPD 20 to 21 percent.

The FDP and the Left are each estimated to reach about 8 percent of the vote, while the AfD would receive 12 percent of the votes. The Greens, SPD and Left could possibly achieve a majority together.

Like Merkel, Hesse's Minister President Volker Bouffier warned against such a set-up in the state parliament: “Those who refuse to vote for the CDU now will wake up with a left-wing majority,” he said after a meeting of the CDU federal executive in Berlin on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Hesse follows Bavaria into crucial state election

“The last thing we need in Hesse would be a left-wing government,” said Bouffier, whose CDU has formed a coalition with the Greens since the 2013 state elections. “That would be catastrophic for this economically strong state. That would cost us thousands of jobs. That would reduce investment in our country and would cause immediate damage.”

CDU Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer also believes there’s “a very real danger” that there will be a left-wing government. Similarly as to when the CSU lost their ruling majority in the October 14th Bavarian election, Merkel could come under considerable pressure in the event of a loss of power in Hesse.

Low results nationwide

Nationwide, the Union and the SPD together only account for about 40 percent of the vote, according to the new “Sunday trend” by Emnid for the “Bild am Sonntag”. The CDU/CSU is at 25 percent while the the SPD stands at 15 percent – both all-time lows. The main winners are likely to be the Greens, who achieved 19 percent in the poll.

This weekend, SPD chairwoman Andrea Nahles defended the controversial grand coalition – threatened by an election shake up in Hesse –  pointing out that the SPD is the party most committed to affordable housing and stable pensions.

“We make politics for the many and not for the few,” she told “Bild am Sonntag”.

SEE ALSO: Germany's ruling parties hit all time low, Greens on the up

Federal Family Minister Franziska Giffey (SPD) told Deutschlandfunk radio that “when things get difficult, you can't run away.The CDU/SPD coalition agreement included so many good points for the country which the two parties are still working to implement, she added.  

An election quake in Hesse – possibly a Green prime minister – could also call into question Merkel's renewed candidacy for the CDU presidency at the party conference in December.

Merkel stressed that party chairmanship and chancellorship belong in one hand; otherwise power could crumble. For the SPD in particular, there are hardly any alternatives in nationwide surveys of 14 percent; in a new election it could only end up in fourth place behind the Greens and the AfD.

“For a year now, we have been dealing far too much with whether we should be offended or not,” Merkel said in view of the inner-party quarrels between the CDU and CSU following the poor results of the 2017 Bundestag elections (32.9 percent). “We should rather look to the future with optimism”.

The embattled SPD leader Nahles called on her party not to give up. “I am determined to roll up my sleeves and fight,” she said on Saturday at a European party conference of the Rhineland-Palatinate SPD. She remained optimistic that party leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel could become Minister President in Hesse on October, Nahles said.

The Green politician Cem Özdemir spoke in the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” of a “tectonic shift of plates in the party landscape” in view of Greens’ upward swing.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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