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Who will be Sweden’s next prime minister? Rivals make their final pitch

UPDATED: Sweden's search for a new government – four months after the election – is approaching the finishing line. But does that mean a new prime minister or a snap election?

Who will be Sweden's next prime minister? Rivals make their final pitch
The speaker of parliament, Andreas Norlén. Photo: Magnus Hjalmarson Neideman/SvD/TT

Incumbent prime minister Stefan Löfven of the centre-left Social Democrats and Ulf Kristersson of the conservative Moderates presented their final reports to the speaker of parliament today, updating him on their progress in government negotiations.

Speaker Andreas Norlén first met Löfven at 10am in his office in parliament, before speaking to Kristersson half an hour later, following weeks of secret talks between party leaders.

Löfven was reticent in a press conference following his meeting, saying: “Discussions are still ongoing.”

He described the talks as “constructive” and said that the focus was on ensuring Sweden had “a viable government as soon as possible”. But the Social Democrat leader said he could not give any comment on how likely it was that he would be the one to form that government.

Kristersson's comments were similar. 

“I can actually only confirm that over the weekend intensive discussions have taken place between the parties of the Alliance, in a good atmosphere. And they are continuing,” the Moderate leader said, referring to the Christian Democrats, Centre and Liberal parties, which together with Kristersson's party make up the Alliance.

The Centre and Liberal parties voted against a government led by Kristersson in an earlier vote, and the two have ended up in a king-maker role since the September 9th election left the country divided. It is likely that both Löfven and Kristersson have focussed on trying to attract their support in recent weeks.

To achieve this, Löfven will have had to move right on issues such as workers' rights and market liberalism, without losing the votes of the Left Party to his left. Kristersson will have had to promise his allies that his government would not be dependent on the Sweden Democrats – without losing the support of the Sweden Democrats.


Löfven is the leader of the biggest centre-left party, and Kristersson of the biggest centre-right party. Photo: Anders Wiklund/TT

Norlén has already named January 16th as the date when the next prime ministerial candidate will face a parliamentary vote. Two such votes have already been held, with both Löfven and Kristersson failing to gain enough support from parliament.

By far the most likely scenario is that one of these two would be proposed for the role a second time. Norlén is expected to name his candidate on Monday.

A prime ministerial candidate does not need a majority of parliament to vote in their favour in order to be accepted, but if a majority vote against, the proposal will fail. This system, called 'negative parliamentarism', allows minority governments to rule thanks to abstentions or 'passive support'.

If this third vote is unsuccessful, a fourth vote would happen on January 23rd, Norlén has said. If one of these votes is successful, the new prime minister will officially take on the role and name their cabinet within a matter of days.

But if neither vote is successful, Sweden will need to hold a second election, which must then happen no more than three months after the fourth and final vote. Swedish elections are always held on Sundays, so the latest date this could happen would be April 21st.

This means that Sweden is in wholly untested waters. Previously, parliament has always accepted the first proposed prime minister.

To catch up with everything that has happened since the election, The Local's timeline offers a handy overview. And if you have any questions about the process, please log in to comment below.

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POLITICS

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

Sweden has won the fight against inflation and expects GDP to grow next year, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson proudly proclaimed as she presented the government's budget bill for 2025.

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

“Going forward, the task will be to ensure that high inflation does not return, and at the same time to implement reforms and investments that build a more prosperous, safer and more secure Sweden for generations to come,” said Svantesson in a statement on Thursday morning.

The government predicts that Swedish GDP will grow 2.5 percent next year followed by 3.2 percent 2026.

Unemployment, however, is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3 percent in 2025, only beginning to drop in 2026 (7.9 percent, according to the government’s predictions, followed by 7.6 percent in 2027).

Svantesson told a press conference that a strong focus on economic growth would create jobs.

The 2025 budget, worked out in collaboration between the right-wing government coalition and far-right Sweden Democrats, is far more expansionary than the restrained budget Svantesson presented last year when Sweden was still fighting high inflation: 60 billion kronor towards new reforms rather than 39 billion kronor for 2024. Almost half, 27 billion kronor, will go towards funding lower taxes.

ANALYSIS:

Svantesson highlighted three areas in which new reforms are prioritised:

  • Strengthening household purchasing power after several years of the high cost of living putting a strain on household budgets, with reforms set to push the tax burden to its lowest level since 1980, according to the government.
  • Reinstating the “work first” principle, meaning that people should work rather than live on benefits. Some of the measures include language training for parents born abroad and increasing the number of places in vocational adult education.
  • Increasing growth, focusing on investments in research, infrastructure and electricity supply.

In the debate in parliament on Thursday, the centre-left opposition is expected to criticise the government for lowering taxes for high earners and not investing enough in welfare. 

Investments in healthcare, social care and education are significantly reduced in this budget compared to last year: down from 16 billion kronor to 7.5 billion kronor. 

Meanwhile, the hike of the employment tax credit (jobbskatteavdraget) – a tax reduction given to people who pay tax on their job income – is expected to lead to a 3,671 kronor tax cut for people on the median salary of 462,000 kronor per year.

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