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AfD drops in popularity, Greens and Christian Democrats on the up: Poll

The popularity rating of Alternative for Germany (AfD) has fallen after Germany’s intelligence agency stepped up surveillance of the party, a new poll shows.

Published: 22 January 2019 16:03 CET
Updated: 22 January 2019 17:52 CET
AfD drops in popularity, Greens and Christian Democrats on the up: Poll
An AfD stand during a recent European election meeting hosted by the party in Riesa, Saxony. Photo: DPA

This is a German language learner article. The words in bold are translated at the bottom of the article.

On Monday an Insa opinion poll by Bild newspaper showed the anti-immigration AfD at 13 percent – a drop of 1.5 percentage points – the party’s worst figure for about a year, and fourth place in the current party ranking.

The survey results came after Germany’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) last week declared that it had officially designated the AfD a “review case”, meaning it will step up monitoring of political extremism within the group.

The winners of the poll, which asks a sample of voters who they would vote for if an election was held this week, were the centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Socialists (CDU/CSU).

The CDU/CSU gained two points bringing them to 31 percent. The Greens remain the second strongest force with 19.5 percent (+1.5 points), followed by the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who were placed at 13.5 percent, just ahead of the AfD.

SEE ALSO: In depth: Is the AfD becoming too extreme?

Survey would make two coalitions possible

According to the Bild survey, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) remain at 9.5 percent. After a slight drop, the Left Party (Die Linke) is now also at 9.5 percent.

The current poll shows two government coalitions would be possible: an alliance between the CDU/CSU and the Greens, which would account for a total of 50.5 percent of voters. With a total of 54 percent, a coalition between CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP would also be possible.

Germany’s intelligence agency shied away from immediate full surveillance of the entire AfD, including phone and email taps, the use of undercover informants and the collection of personal data on MPs.

But it was also to start full surveillance of the party's youth organization Junge Alternative (JA), which is suspected of having ties with the extremist Identitarian Movement.

And it was to place under surveillance the AfD's most far-right grouping “The Wing” (Der Flügel), led by nationalist Björn Höcke, reported the Tagesspiegel last week.

SEE ALSO: Germany's intelligence agency to step up surveillance of the AfD

German vocab

ein Rückgang (masculine) um 1,5 Prozentpunkte – a decrease of 1.5 percentage points 

das Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz – the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution 

erklären – to declare

der Prüffall – the test case or review case

politischer Extremismus – political extremism

das Parteienranking – party ranking

gewinnen/erreichen – to gain or increase

bleiben – to remain

die zweitstärkste Kraft – the second strongest force

Umfrage würde zwei Koalitionen ermöglichen – Survey would make two coalitions possible

aktuellen – current

das Bündnis – the alliance

sofortige vollständige Überwachung – immediate full surveillance

verdeckte Informanten – undercover informants

verdächtigt – suspected



 

Member comments

  1. It would be better if the bold words in the article are in German. At least then we could try to understand them before looking up the translation at the bottom of the article.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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