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ELECTIONS

Far-right AfD becomes ‘strongest force in state of Brandenburg’ for first time

Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the strongest force in Brandenburg, the neighbouring state to Berlin, for the first time, according to a new poll. But the Greens are also on the up.

Published: 12 June 2019 12:34 CEST
Far-right AfD becomes 'strongest force in state of Brandenburg' for first time
A man wears an AfD cap in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt. Photo: DPA

Ahead of a state election on September 1st, the survey, by Infratest dimap on behalf of regional broadcaster RBB 24, saw the AfD score 21 percent of the vote. That’s an increase of two percentage points compared to the last poll in April. 

In second place is the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who currently lead the state government in a coalition. A total of 18 percent of respondents said they would vote for the SPD, a drop of four points since the last poll.

The Greens also increased their share of the vote by five percentage points in the poll, reaching 17 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) also scooped 17 percent in the survey, a drop of three points.

Meanwhile, The Left (Die Linke) won 14 percent (minus two points), while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) would make it into the parliament, according to this poll, as they reached five percent.

The Freie Wähler (Free Voters) received four percent in the survey, missing the parliament threshold of five percent.

Yet despite the downward spiral of the Social Democrats, the poll also showed most people (48 percent) would like State Premier Dietmar Woidke of the SPD to remain head of the government.

His CDU challenger Ingo Senftleben received 11 percent of the vote, while eight percent of respondents would like to see the AfD's top candidate, Andreas Kalbitz as head of government.

READ ALSO: Why can't Germany's Social Democrats pull themselves together?

A total of 1,000 voters in Brandenburg were surveyed from June 3rd to 6th.

So what does it all mean?

Brandenburg state government is currently run by a coalition between the SPD and The Left, who have governed together since 2009.

In the last election in 2014, the SPD scooped 33 percent of the vote and The Left 27.2 percent.

If the elections were to produce similar results to the newest poll, this coalition would not reach a majority, signalling there could be some major changes afoot in the eastern German state. 

It comes after AfD won the largest share of the vote in Brandenburg in the European elections, with 19.9 percent.

The east/west divide

As The Local has reported, there are three eastern state elections in Germany this year: in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony. In all of these votes, the AfD is expected to win a lot of votes.

However, it must be noted that the AfD was established in 2013 and the last state elections in these areas took place in 2014 when the party was yet to make a big impression. 

It has grown exponentially since then – gaining seats in the Bundestag after snagging 12 percent of the vote in the 2017 federal elections. 

The party could also get its first mayor: voters in the eastern German city of Görlitz go to the polls for the second time this Sunday. 

READ ALSO: Is Germany one step closer to getting its first AfD mayor?

In the first vote last month,  AfD candidate Sebastian Wippel, 36, took 36.4 percent of the vote, followed by Christian Democratic Candidate Octavian Ursu, 51, who won 30.3 percent of the vote.

SEE ALSO: Meet the East German Greens candidate offering another alternative

However, because none of the candidates won an absolute majority, there will be another round of elections on June 16th. On Sunday, 58.6 percent of the city's 56,000 residents voted.

What are the important issues in Brandenburg?

For voters, infrastructure and traffic were the hot topics. Next on the agenda was education, including schools and apprenticeships.

The topic of environmental protection and climate change was taken much more seriously than in the last survey in April: a total of 19 percent of the respondents consider it an urgent issue, compared to 12 percent in the last poll.

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EUROPEAN UNION

Norway flirts with the idea of a ‘mini Brexit’ in election campaign

On paper, Norway's election on Monday looks like it could cool Oslo's relationship with the European Union but analysts say that appearances may be deceiving.

Published: 11 September 2021 14:08 CEST
Norway flirts with the idea of a 'mini Brexit' in election campaign
The Centre Party's leader Slagsvold Vedum has called for Norway's relationship with the European Union to be renegotiated. Photo: Gorm Kallestad / NTB / AFP

After eight years of a pro-European centre-right government, polls suggest the Scandinavian country is headed for a change of administration.

A left-green coalition in some shape or form is expected to emerge victorious, with the main opposition Labour Party relying on the backing of several eurosceptic parties to obtain a majority in parliament.

In its remote corner of Europe, Norway is not a member of the EU but it is closely linked to the bloc through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement.

The deal gives Norway access to the common market in exchange for the adoption of most European directives.

Both the Centre Party and the Socialist Left — the Labour Party’s closest allies, which together have around 20 percent of voter support — have called for the marriage of convenience to be dissolved.

“The problem with the agreement we have today is that we gradually transfer more and more power from the Storting (Norway’s parliament), from Norwegian lawmakers to the bureaucrats in Brussels who are not accountable,” Centre Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum said in a recent televised debate.

READ ALSO: 

Defending the interests of its rural base, the Centre Party wants to replace the EEA with trade and cooperation agreements.

However, Labour leader Jonas Gahr Store, who is expected to become the next prime minister, does not want to jeopardise the country’s ties to the EU, by far Norway’s biggest trading partner.

“If I go to my wife and say ‘Look, we’ve been married for years and things are pretty good, but now I want to look around to see if there are any other options out there’… Nobody (in Brussels) is going to pick up the phone” and be willing to renegotiate the terms, Gahr Store said in the same debate.

Running with the same metaphor, Slagsvold Vedum snapped back: “If your wife were riding roughshod over you every day, maybe you would react.”

EU a ‘tough negotiating partner’

Initially, Brexit gave Norwegian eurosceptics a whiff of hope. But the difficulties in untangling British-EU ties put a damper on things.

“In Norway, we saw that the EU is a very tough negotiating partner and even a big country like Britain did not manage to win very much in its negotiations,” said Ulf Sverdrup, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

While Norwegians have rejected EU membership twice, in referendums in 1972 and 1994, a majority are in favour of the current EEA agreement.

During the election campaign, the EU issue has gradually been pushed to the back burner as the Centre Party — which briefly led in the polls — has seen its support deflate.

The nature of Norway’s relationship to the bloc will depend on the distribution of seats in parliament, but experts generally agree that little is likely to change.

“The Labour Party will surely be firm about the need to maintain the EEA agreement,” said Johannes Bergh, political scientist at the Institute for Social Research, “even if that means making concessions to the other parties in other areas”.

Closer cooperation over climate?

It’s possible that common issues, like the fight against climate change, could in fact bring Norway and the EU even closer.

“Cooperation with the EU will very likely become stronger because of the climate issue” which “could become a source of friction” within the next coalition, Sverdrup suggested.

“Even though the past 25 years have been a period of increasingly close cooperation, and though we can therefore expect that it will probably continue, there are still question marks” surrounding Norway’s future ties to the EU, he said.

These likely include the inclusion and strength of eurosceptics within the future government as well as the ability of coalition partners to agree on all EU-related issues.

Meanwhile, Brussels is looking on cautiously. The EEA agreement is “fundamental” for relations between the EU and its
partners Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, according to EU spokesman Peter Stano.

But when it comes to the rest, “we do not speculate on possible election outcomes nor do we comment on different party positions.”

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