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BREXIT

A no-deal Brexit is now ‘the most likely scenario’ say French officials

A no-deal Brexit is becoming the most likely scenario for Britain's departure from the European Union, a French presidential aide said on Wednesday, the day before Boris Johnson holds his first face-to-face meeting as premier with President Emmanuel Macron.

Published: 21 August 2019 16:22 CEST
A no-deal Brexit is now 'the most likely scenario' say French officials
Britain's current Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo: AFP

“The scenario that is becoming the most likely is one of no deal,” said the official, who asked not to be named. 

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Boris Johnson is due to meet Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Thursday for a working lunch. Photo: AFP

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, rejected Johnson's demand that the so-called “backstop” mechanism to avoid border checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland be scrapped.

And he also contradicted Johnson's claim that if Britain leaves the EU without a deal it would not have to pay a €43 billion divorce bill that has already been negotiated.

“The scenario that is becoming the most likely is one of no deal,” the official said ahead of the first meeting between Macron and Johnson since the  British premier took office a month ago. 

“The idea of saying 'there's not a deal, so I won't pay' does not work,” the official said.

“We cannot imagine that a country like the UK would back  out of an international commitment.”

The official added: “There's no magic wand that makes this bill disappear.”  

The French official said that a letter sent by Johnson to EU Council President Donald Tusk on Monday asking for what he called the “anti-democratic” backstop to be withdrawn “posed a problem” for the whole EU. 

The backstop is a mechanism to avoid border checks between EU member Ireland and Northern Ireland, part of the UK, with checkpoints there removed as part of a 1998 peace deal on the divided island.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Wednesday of the economic impact of a chaotic no-deal Brexit, hours before she was to receive Johnson on his first foreign visit.

The current Brexit day is October 31st and Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that the UK will be leaving on that date, with or without a deal.

Brexit has previously been scheduled for March 29th and April 12th, but was postponed as previous Prime Minister Theresa May attempted to get British MPs to back the Withdrawal Agreement she had negotiated with the EU, but with no success.

The official added that France did not expect Johnson to seek an extension to the October 31st deadline, but the EU would be ready to grant one in case there were new elections called.

And he dismissed any notion that there were differences between Macron and Merkel on the issue of Brexit, which he said would cause economic harm to the EU and Britain, but mostly for Britain.

“There is not the width of cigarette paper between Paris and Berlin on these issues,” he said.

Member comments

  1. BoJo seems to be living in his own London Bubble of cloud cuckoo land, and being influenced by an unelected ‘aide’. It’s time he started to appreciate the realities of most of the UK’s citizens who have to do ‘real’ work for much less money than MPs and Ministers earn.

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BRITS IN FRANCE

Thousands of Brits still move to France despite post-Brexit paperwork

Moving to France has become a lot more complicated for Brits since Brexit, but latest French immigration data shows that thousands of them still move here.

Published: 1 August 2024 12:37 CEST
Thousands of Brits still move to France despite post-Brexit paperwork

The days of EU freedom of movement are over for UK nationals (unless they also have the passport of an EU country) and now moving to France requires first getting a visa and then requesting a carte de séjour residency card once here.

Getting a visa comes with a raft of requirements including proof of being able to be financially self-sufficient via either a job, a pension or savings.

READ MORE: EXPLAINED: How to apply for a visa to France

However it seems that these requirements are not putting off everyone – and around 9,000 Brits made the move to France in 2023.

French statistics

The French interior ministry has published its provisional immigration data for 2023, which provides the first clear post-Brexit picture of how many Brits move to France.

Although the Brexit transition period ended at the end of 2020, figures on residency cards from 2021 and 2022 include British long-term residents in France being issued with a residency card under the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The figures from 2023 therefore provide the first clear indication of how many Brits move to France since Brexit.

And thousands did – 9,261 UK nationals were issued with a first-time carte de séjour residency card in 2023. Although this number may include a small number of family members of British residents who were resident before Brexit, the great majority of these are people moving to France for the first time.

READ MORE: 10 things to do before moving to France

It is not possible to compare this with pre-Brexit patterns since before the UK left the EU Brits were not required to get a visa or residency card to live in France, and there is therefore no comparable data.

How many Brits live in France now?

The interior ministry data does, however, give an idea of the total number of Brits living in France – prior to Brexit, this was difficult to estimate due to EU freedom of movement. 

In 2023, French authorities noted that there were 166,314 Brits holding residency cards in France, a 2.5 percent increase from 2022, when there were 161,194.

The real figure is probably slightly higher because it does not include Brits who have dual nationality with an EU country – eg British-Irish or British-French dual nationals – since they are not required to have a residency card. 

In 2020, a study by the French national statistics body, INSEE used pre-Brexit data and estimated that there were 148,000 Britons in France. This also found that a large number of Brits in France were in western and south-west France, particularly in départements of Charente, Dordogne and Haute-Vienne.

READ MORE: Which part of south-west France is the top ‘dream destination’ to move to?

Brits becoming French

In 2023, 1,522 Brits gained French nationality, with 767 going via décret (by residency) while another 755 gained French nationality via déclaration, the category for those who are either married to a French person or can prove family ties (eg parent of a French child).

In comparison, in 2022, 2,206 Brits became French, and in 2019, 3,557 did.

Acquiring French citizenship is a long process – the application takes an average of between 18 months and two years, while those applying through residency need to have lived in France for five years (cut to two years if they have completed higher education in France).

The post Brexit period saw a spike in Brits applying to become French – many had lived in France for many years but had never considered it necessary before since they already had the right to live in France.

What Brits do in France

Unfortunately, the data did not specify the types of residency cards given to Brits in 2023. 

However, Eurostat data from 2022 did break down first time residency permits into four categories; work, study, family reunification or ‘other’ – which includes retirees and others who don’t intend to work or study in France.

READ MORE: ‘Not all gin-swilling pensioners’ – What are Brits in France really doing?

While their data differs slightly form the interior ministry numbers, they found that a little under half (3,182 out of 7,927) of first-time residency cards for Brits were work-related.

After that, students came in second place, with 1,901 came to study in 2022.

France has been working hard to market itself as an international study destination and around 400,000 foreign students come here each year. It is the fourth most popular country for foreign students – and the top non-English speaking country.

Although Brexit has made studying in France more complicated for British students, the fact that French is still widely taught in British schools makes it a natural destination for those who want to study abroad.

READ MORE: How easy is it to move to France if you don’t speak French?

The third biggest group of Brits was the ‘other’ category which includes retirees and had 1,760 people. Meanwhile, 1,084 people came via family reunification – ie joining a spouse, partner or parents already resident in France, according to Eurostat.

How do Brits compare overall?

In comparison to general immigration data, Brits are somewhat different and are more likely to move to France to work than to study.

In 2023, the interior ministry data for all non-EU nationals moving to France showed that the largest group were students. After that, the second largest category was ‘family’ related residency cards, and the third was work-related.

Brits reverse that trend being most likely to move to France to work.

As for the number of Brits moving to France, there are fewer Britons coming here than Americans. In 2023, 12,153 Americans were issued a first-time residency card – although that number includes a significant number of students doing a study abroad programme who don’t actually intend to make France their home.

Brits come in 10th place for the largest nationality represented in new residency cards issued, behind Indians who made up 9,819 first-time cartes de séjour. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, China and the United States were the top five (in order).

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