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BREXIT

No-deal or no impact: What do the French think of Brexit?

It's the question from friends and relatives that many Brits in France find themselves trying to answer - what do the French think of Brexit?

No-deal or no impact: What do the French think of Brexit?
France has spent €40 million on its own no-deal Brexit preparations. Photo: AFP

And, of course, the answer is – not much. While Brexit has dominated the British press for three long, weary and mostly screamingly tedious years, most lucky French people barely give it a thought from one season to the next.

When the subject is raised in bars, coffee shops and offices, we find that the general attitude is one of pity, incomprehension and mild mockery.

Fortunately, some proper scientists have now come along to conduct an in-depth opinion poll on French people's views on Brexit.

The Kantar Centre on the Future of Europe, which brings together a pan-European team of researchers with expertise in political and opinion polls, has conducted an online poll of 1,000 French adults to ask what they think of Brexit.

The results were then compared with similar polls in Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and Poland, and produced some surprising variations between countries.

When asked to predict what will happen on October 31st (the current Brexit date), 29 percent of French people polled replied that the UK will not leave after all, 30 percent said Britain will leave with a deal, 16 percent said Britain leave without a deal and the remaining 25 percent said Je ne sais pas (presumably while shrugging in classic Gallic style).

READ ALSO LATEST: The ultimate no-deal Brexit checklist for Britons in France


Will the UK really go this time? The French are unsure. Photo: Kantar

Moving on to the question of whether or not Brexit is such a great idea, 40 percent of the French people surveyed said it was either a bad or very bad idea, 26 percent were undecided, while just 20 percent thought it was either a good or very good idea.

Asked about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK, 59 percent of French people thought it would have an adverse impact on the country. And, on this topic, the French took the most optimistic view. In Germany, a full 82 percent of people thought that a no-deal Brexit would be bad for the UK, while in the Netherlands, Ireland and Spain, more than 70 percent of people thought it would have an unfavourable impact on the UK.

The French also took an optimistic view of the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the rest of the EU, with 35 percent saying they thought it would make no difference and 10 percent saying they think it will improve things for the rest of the bloc. France was again notably more optimistic on this matter than the other countries surveyed, with Germany and Spain leading the doom-mongers in saying that things would be worse for the EU in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

The survey also asked French people whether they would like a referendum on the subject of membership of the EU. The idea of leaving the EU had at one point gained some political currency in France, with the far right Rassemblement National advocating it for several years. However, after losing heavily in the 2017 election – and seeing the chaos across the Channel – it now seems to have been quietly dropped from Marine Le Pen's party manifesto, with the RN favouring reforming the institution from within instead.

But, when asked “Would you be in favour of France holding a referendum on its membership of the EU?”, 37 percent of people said they would be totally or partially in favour. A total of 30 percent were strongly or partly against, while 23 percent were neither for nor against and 10 percent of people didn't know.


An EU referendum in France looks like it would be a more decisive affair than the 48:52 nightmare that has plagued Britain

While opinion seemed a little vague on whether they want a referendum or not, there was at least one decisive vote – just 24 percent of people said they would vote to leave while 54 percent wanted to remain. Of the others, six percent wouldn't vote while the remaining 18 percent didn't know.

And France was the most Eurosceptic of the countries polled. Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and Poland polled leave votes of respectively 17, 19, 12, 13 and 13 percent.

Boris Johnson, not a hugely popular figure in France anyway due to his long history of 'French bashing' did not come out well of the poll, with 42 percent of French people saying that they believed he played a negative role in the ongoing negotiations between the UK and the EU, compared to just 24 percent who believed that about his predecessor Theresa May.


Boris Johnson is not seen as playing a positive role by the French

If you live in France, or just spend time here, and are unsure what Brexit means for you, head to our Preparing for Brexit section for all the latest practical information.

 

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BRITS IN FRANCE

Thousands of Brits still move to France despite post-Brexit paperwork

Moving to France has become a lot more complicated for Brits since Brexit, but latest French immigration data shows that thousands of them still move here.

Thousands of Brits still move to France despite post-Brexit paperwork

The days of EU freedom of movement are over for UK nationals (unless they also have the passport of an EU country) and now moving to France requires first getting a visa and then requesting a carte de séjour residency card once here.

Getting a visa comes with a raft of requirements including proof of being able to be financially self-sufficient via either a job, a pension or savings.

READ MORE: EXPLAINED: How to apply for a visa to France

However it seems that these requirements are not putting off everyone – and around 9,000 Brits made the move to France in 2023.

French statistics

The French interior ministry has published its provisional immigration data for 2023, which provides the first clear post-Brexit picture of how many Brits move to France.

Although the Brexit transition period ended at the end of 2020, figures on residency cards from 2021 and 2022 include British long-term residents in France being issued with a residency card under the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The figures from 2023 therefore provide the first clear indication of how many Brits move to France since Brexit.

And thousands did – 9,261 UK nationals were issued with a first-time carte de séjour residency card in 2023. Although this number may include a small number of family members of British residents who were resident before Brexit, the great majority of these are people moving to France for the first time.

READ MORE: 10 things to do before moving to France

It is not possible to compare this with pre-Brexit patterns since before the UK left the EU Brits were not required to get a visa or residency card to live in France, and there is therefore no comparable data.

How many Brits live in France now?

The interior ministry data does, however, give an idea of the total number of Brits living in France – prior to Brexit, this was difficult to estimate due to EU freedom of movement. 

In 2023, French authorities noted that there were 166,314 Brits holding residency cards in France, a 2.5 percent increase from 2022, when there were 161,194.

The real figure is probably slightly higher because it does not include Brits who have dual nationality with an EU country – eg British-Irish or British-French dual nationals – since they are not required to have a residency card. 

In 2020, a study by the French national statistics body, INSEE used pre-Brexit data and estimated that there were 148,000 Britons in France. This also found that a large number of Brits in France were in western and south-west France, particularly in départements of Charente, Dordogne and Haute-Vienne.

READ MORE: Which part of south-west France is the top ‘dream destination’ to move to?

Brits becoming French

In 2023, 1,522 Brits gained French nationality, with 767 going via décret (by residency) while another 755 gained French nationality via déclaration, the category for those who are either married to a French person or can prove family ties (eg parent of a French child).

In comparison, in 2022, 2,206 Brits became French, and in 2019, 3,557 did.

Acquiring French citizenship is a long process – the application takes an average of between 18 months and two years, while those applying through residency need to have lived in France for five years (cut to two years if they have completed higher education in France).

The post Brexit period saw a spike in Brits applying to become French – many had lived in France for many years but had never considered it necessary before since they already had the right to live in France.

What Brits do in France

Unfortunately, the data did not specify the types of residency cards given to Brits in 2023. 

However, Eurostat data from 2022 did break down first time residency permits into four categories; work, study, family reunification or ‘other’ – which includes retirees and others who don’t intend to work or study in France.

READ MORE: ‘Not all gin-swilling pensioners’ – What are Brits in France really doing?

While their data differs slightly form the interior ministry numbers, they found that a little under half (3,182 out of 7,927) of first-time residency cards for Brits were work-related.

After that, students came in second place, with 1,901 came to study in 2022.

France has been working hard to market itself as an international study destination and around 400,000 foreign students come here each year. It is the fourth most popular country for foreign students – and the top non-English speaking country.

Although Brexit has made studying in France more complicated for British students, the fact that French is still widely taught in British schools makes it a natural destination for those who want to study abroad.

READ MORE: How easy is it to move to France if you don’t speak French?

The third biggest group of Brits was the ‘other’ category which includes retirees and had 1,760 people. Meanwhile, 1,084 people came via family reunification – ie joining a spouse, partner or parents already resident in France, according to Eurostat.

How do Brits compare overall?

In comparison to general immigration data, Brits are somewhat different and are more likely to move to France to work than to study.

In 2023, the interior ministry data for all non-EU nationals moving to France showed that the largest group were students. After that, the second largest category was ‘family’ related residency cards, and the third was work-related.

Brits reverse that trend being most likely to move to France to work.

As for the number of Brits moving to France, there are fewer Britons coming here than Americans. In 2023, 12,153 Americans were issued a first-time residency card – although that number includes a significant number of students doing a study abroad programme who don’t actually intend to make France their home.

Brits come in 10th place for the largest nationality represented in new residency cards issued, behind Indians who made up 9,819 first-time cartes de séjour. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, China and the United States were the top five (in order).

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