Read news from:
Austria
SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

Merkel’s conservatives in turmoil after far-right vote debacle in eastern German state

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives are in crisis mode after regional MPs sided with the far-right in a key vote, causing nationwide outrage and testing her leadership.

Published: 7 February 2020 15:47 CET
Updated: 7 February 2020 16:47 CET
Merkel's conservatives in turmoil after far-right vote debacle in eastern German state
An exit sign at the CDU press conference on Friday. Photo: DPA

Merkel condemned Wednesday's “unforgivable” vote in the small state of Thuringia, where her CDU party voted in the same camp as the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) to block the re-election of a leftist state premier.

Thanks to the CDU and AfD, Thomas Kemmerich of the liberal Free Democrats, one of Germany's smaller parties, ousted incumbent premier Bodo Ramelow from the far-left Die Linke party by one vote.

It marked the first time a state premier had been voted into office with help from the far right, shattering a taboo in Germany where mainstream parties have always ruled out working with the AfD.

Faced with an uproar, Kemmerich offered his resignation just 25 hours later and called for snap elections.

But the wider aftershocks are only just being felt in Berlin.

“Merkel's fatal error,” headlined the conservative newspaper Die Welt, accusing the veteran chancellor of failing to find a strategy to deal with the growing might of the AfD.

READ ALSO:

Merkel's centre-left coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), are fuming about the apparent betrayal in Thuringia.

The two sides will hold crisis talks on Saturday in the latest stress test for the fragile alliance.

“There are a lot of questions that need to be answered to restore trust,” said SPD co-leader Saskia Esken.

Meanwhile, FDP leader Christian Lindner suvived a vote of confidence on Friday and will remain chairman of the party.

In a statement, Lindner apologised and sought to distance himself and the party from the AfD. He said that the FDP belonged to the “democratic centre of the political landscape”.

FDP leader Christian Lindner. Photo: DPA

'Hanging by a thread'

The Thuringia fiasco was also a humiliating blow for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is seen as Merkel's chosen heir but has struggled to assert herself since replacing her mentor as CDU leader in 2018.

The CDU's Thuringia arm, led by the ambitious Mike Mohring, ignored her pleas not to vote alongside the AfD on Wednesday.

Worse still, Kramp-Karrenbauer – often known by her initials AKK – was unable to get the rebel branch to back new elections despite hours of emergency talks late on Thursday, as they fear an even worse showing than in the original October polls.

AKK appears helpless” as her authority is increasingly undermined, the Bild newspaper wrote in a scathing assessment.

Kramp-Karrenbauer's prospects of replacing Merkel as chancellor once the longtime leader bows out in 2021 “are hanging by a thread”, it added.

Die Welt said Merkel and Kramp-Karrenbauer shared the blame for not recognising just how far Mohring would go to have a seat in government.

Nor had they provided the local branch with a plan B after Thuringia's inconclusive legislative polls pushed the CDU into third place behind the AfD and Die Linke – both parties the CDU won't cooperate with.

Kramp-Karrenbauer's arch-rival Friedrich Merz, liked by the CDU's most conservative members, is already waiting in the wings to take advantage of the turmoil.

AKK on Friday. Photo: DPA

He announced this week he was quitting his job on the supervisory board of the German arm of investment firm BlackRock to dedicate himself to politics and helping the CDU “renew itself”.

Cracks in the firewall

Set up in 2013, the AfD started out as an anti-euro outfit before capitalising on widespread anger over Merkel's 2015 decision to allow in a flood of asylum seekers at the height of Europe's refugee crisis.

It now has representatives in every regional parliament in Germany, as well as in the national Bundestag.

The AfD is especially strong in states in the former communist east, putting even more cracks in the political firewall meant to keep them out of power.

“The chancellor has always sidestepped the issue of the AfD, and in Thuringia she's paying the price,” said Welt.

A Forsa survey released Friday predicted that the CDU would be punished most if Thuringians were asked to return to the ballot box.

After scoring 21 percent of the vote in October, the CDU would now slump to just 12 percent.

Former state premier Ramelow's leftist party would come out ahead with an even better showing of 37 percent, followed by the AfD at a slightly improved 24 percent.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

SHOW COMMENTS