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Update: Merkel ‘heir’ AKK will not run for German chancellor

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party and her plans to stay on until 2021 were plunged into disarray Monday after her heir-apparent gave up her leadership ambitions in a deepening crisis over ties between the centre and far right.

Published: 10 February 2020 09:35 CET
Updated: 10 February 2020 17:55 CET
Update: Merkel 'heir' AKK will not run for German chancellor
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer next to Angela Merkel at a CDU meeting in 2019. Photo: DPA

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), opted out after barely a year in the post — a period marked by internal battles over whether to cooperate with the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD).

She announced that she was standing down as CDU leader and would not seek to be the party's candidate for chancellor in next year's general elections.

“This is an unusually serious situation for the CDU,” said close Merkel ally and Economy Minister Peter Altmaier.

Speaking later in Berlin, Merkel said she “regrets” AKK's departure, at one point calling her simply “Annegret” in a rare personal moment in front of the cameras.

AKK, as Kramp-Karrenbauer is popularly known, said she had had “a difficult time” as party leader.

“At present, we can feel powerful centrifugal forces in our society and in our party,” she told reporters in Berlin.

While the party has a policy of no cooperation with either far left or far right at a national level, regional CDU lawmakers last week went rogue and voted with MPs from the AfD to oust a far-left state premier in Thuringia.

The breach in the political dam towards the AfD in Thuringia prompted Merkel's junior partners in the national government, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), to call urgent talks at the weekend about the partnership's future.

AKK's departure, the most prominent political head to roll after the Thuringia crisis, was “unsettling,” SPD board member Michael Roth tweeted Monday.

“It is still less certain whether decent democrats stand together in the battle for democracy and against nationalism,” he added.

READ ALSO: Merkel's conservatives in turmoil after far-right vote debacle in eastern German state

“The CDU must clarify its relationship to far-right extremists,” SPD co-leader Norbert Walter-Borjans told a press conference on Monday.

Centre-left SPD ministers will not work with a party “that leaves room for far-right forces,” he added.

With the race to the chancellery wide open again, Süddeutsche Zeitung said the aftershocks could be huge.

“It's very possible that the chancellor's exit is coming closer,” it wrote.

Broken taboo

Voting alongside the far right breaches one of the fundamental taboos of post-World War II German politics – the refusal of mainstream parties to work with the extremes.

READ ALSO:

AKK's attempts to impose rigid no-cooperation discipline from Berlin have foundered especially in Germany's former communist east, where strong showings for the AfD and Left in some states threaten the ability of mainstream parties to form functioning coalition majorities.

Germany's next national elections must take place by autumn next year, although the fractious coalition between the CDU, its Bavarian CSU allies and the SPD may not hold until then.

AKK however said she did not believe her retreat would endanger “the stability of the grand coalition government”.

By this summer, the Catholic mum-of-three hopes to have set up a process for finding the person to lead the CDU into the next federal campaign.

“Separating the office of chancellor and the party chairmanship is weakening the CDU,” she said Monday — an implicit rebuke to Merkel's 2018 decision to split the two.

The veteran chancellor gave up on the party leadership as a string of regional defeats and the growth of the far right undermined her popularity within her own ranks.

Merkel, who has been in power since 2005, announced at the same time that she would not run again for the highest office.

Her inability to keep her troops in line prompted Kramp-Karrenbauer to tell a meeting of the CDU's leadership “she will not be a candidate for the chancellery”, the source said.

The move finally ends the role as heir apparent she had held since even before she was heaved with Merkel's backing into the party's top job.

Race to the top

Despite Merkel naming her defence minister last July to lend her the gravitas of federal office, AKK has never managed to stamp her authority on the CDU after her narrow win over challenger Friedrich Merz.

Her bowing out now reopens the race to succeed Merkel.

Merkel has been in power since 2005, but said she would not run again for the highest office at the same time she gave up the CDU leadership.

Merz, a former rival of Merkel's, has been waiting in the wings ever since AKK prevailed in the leadership election, and still enjoys strong backing from the pro-business and more conservative wings of the party.

Just last week, the former CDU parliamentary leader gave up his job at giant asset manager BlackRock “to support the party more strongly in its renewal and re-enter politics”, he said.

AKK's decision to quit “deserves respect,” Merz tweeted Monday. “I will give her every support to lead from the front the process for her succession and the chancellor candidacy.”

READ ALSO: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer: The woman behind the 'mini-Merkel' headlines

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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