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Succeeding Merkel: Chancellor’s ally Armin Laschet elected CDU party chief

Armin Laschet, state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is the new CDU leader and thereby frontrunner to be the party's candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor at September's general election.

Published: 16 January 2021 11:33 CET
Succeeding Merkel: Chancellor's ally Armin Laschet elected CDU party chief
North Rhine-Westphalia's State Premier Armin Laschet delivers a speech after being elected as CDU leader at a digital congress in Berlin on January 16, 2021: AFP

The close Merkel ally, 59, was elected in a digital conference with 521 votes in a run-off against Merkel rival Friedrich Merz, who fetched 466 votes.

A third hopeful, foreign affairs expert Norbert Roettgen, was knocked out of the race.

READ ALSO: CDU leader vote: Who are the three men vying to succeed Merkel?

Merz had campaigned on a promise to shift away from Merkel's centrist path and steer right, writing in a column for Der Spiegel that a “happy 'carry on like this' is just as inappropriate as the vague claim to occupy the centre at all times”.

In contrast, Laschet pledged to continue with Merkel's more moderate course.

In a speech minutes before the vote on Saturday, Laschet called for “continuity” and highlighted the challenge of retaining CDU voters without Merkel at the top.

“What we need is continuity of success,” he said, in a direct rejection of Merz's vision.

Merz, meanwhile, attempted to address his low levels of support among women in the party by highlighting his good relationship with his wife and daughter — leading to some panning on social media.

“Sure, every heterosexual husband and father is virtually a women's rights movement in their own right,” one Twitter user wrote.

At the opening on Friday of the two-day congress which had been forced online by the pandemic, Merkel had signalled her opposition of Merz as she urged delegates to stay the centrist course.

“As a people's party of the centre, we naturally seek solutions that balance out conflicts and always promote … social cohesion,” she said.

“This has always distinguished us as a governing party,” added Merkel.

Merkel backs 'team'

Giving a further hint of her choice, Merkel said she hoped that “a team will be elected that will take the fate of our proud party in its hands”.

While she did not name names, the call appeared to indicate support for Laschet, who has campaigned on a joint ticket with Health Minister Jens Spahn as his deputy.

Merkel had previously said that Laschet “has the tools” to be chancellor.

READ ALSO: Who is the new head of Germany's conservative CDU party?

Merkel, elected as Germany's youngest and first female chancellor in 2005, is planning to stand down after four terms and 16 years in the job following a general election in September.

She had already given up the party's chairman job in 2018 but her preferred successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was forced to also step down over her handling of a regional election scandal.

The head of the CDU traditionally leads the party into a general election as its chancellor candidate, meaning the winner of Saturday's vote would be in with a good chance of securing the top job.

But the pandemic has reshuffled the cards, and many voices are calling instead for the conservative alliance to field someone else as its chancellor candidate. 

READ MORE: Life after Merkel: Is Germany ready to think about what's next?

Chancellor candidate

Most popular at the moment is CSU leader and Bavarian state premier Markus Soeder, whose robust response to the pandemic has won him widespread praise and given him a national spotlight.

Another contender could be Spahn, who has reportedly been sounding out his chances behind the scenes.

The final race at Merkel's conservative alliance for Germany's top job is therefore far from over ahead of the September 26 elections.

Merkel helped Germany weather storms including the global financial crisis and eurozone turmoil as she shifted her CDU firmly to the political centre.

Support for the chancellor plummeted after Germany kept open its borders in 2015 to a mass influx of refugees, dividing society and leading to the rise of the far right.

But in the twilight of her reign, Merkel's popularity has soared again thanks to her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, making it increasingly difficult for Germans to imagine political life without her.

 

 

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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