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Olaf Scholz: the Social Democrat channelling Merkel in succession bid

Olaf Scholz, the centre-left Social Democrat (SPD) candidate to succeed Angela Merkel, is one of Germany's most influential politicians, with a reputation for being meticulous, confident and fiercely ambitious.

Olaf Scholz: the Social Democrat channelling Merkel in succession bid
Olaf Scholz waves to supporters at his final rally a few days ahead of the German federal election, in Cologne, western Germany, on September 24th, 2021. (Photo by Uta Wagner / AFP)

As finance minister and vice-chancellor under Merkel, he enjoys a close relationship with the chancellor and has even sought to position himself as the true Merkel continuity candidate, despite hailing from a different party.

He was pictured recently on the cover of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung magazine adopting Merkel’s famous “rhombus” hand gesture — a stunt that provoked consternation from rivals in Merkel’s CDU camp.

Nicknamed “Scholzomat” for his robotic speeches, Scholz has hardly stood out for his charisma in the run-up to Sunday’s election.

But unlike his two main rivals, Armin Laschet of Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, the 63-year-old has also managed not to make embarrassing mistakes on the campaign trail.

READ ALSO: Greens faced dashed hopes but new leverage with German vote

As a result, he is now the favourite to head Germany’s next coalition government.

During his time as finance minister, Scholz has cemented his reputation for being on the fiscally conservative side of his workers’ party.

Olaf Scholz leaves a voting booth to cast his ballot at a polling station in Potsdam, eastern Germany, during general elections on September 26th, 2021. (Photo by WOLFGANG RATTAY / POOL / AFP)

Cautious approach
Despite agreeing to suspend Germany’s cherished “debt brake” to stave off the crippling effects of the coronavirus pandemic, he has insisted on a return to the policy by 2023.

“All this is expensive, but doing nothing would have been even more expensive,” he said at the time.

Scholz’s cautious approach has at times seen him marginalised within the SPD, overlooked in a leadership vote in 2019 in favour of two relatively unknown left-wingers.

But he has got behind the SPD’s flagship policies in the election campaign, backing a planned wealth tax and an increase in the minimum wage.

Despite his tight grip on Germany’s finances, Scholz has been known to loosen the purse strings, notably as mayor of Hamburg from 2011 to 2018, when he bailed out the wildly over-budget Elbphilharmonie concert hall.

For Scholz, whose motto is “I can only distribute what I have”, the spending was justified by the city-state’s healthy finances.

Born in the northern city of Osnabrueck, Scholz joined the SPD as a teenager.

He flirted with its more left-wing ideals but soon came to prefer a more centrist course.

After training as a lawyer specialising in labour issues, Scholz was elected to the national parliament in 1998. He married fellow SPD politician Britta Ernst that same year.

The SPD Party’s candidate for chancellor smiles after his final rally before the German federal election. (Photo by Martin Meissner / AFP)

‘Not particularly emotional’
It was during his 2002-2004 stint as the SPD’s general secretary that he earned the “robot” moniker for his dry yet tireless defence of the unpopular labour reforms of his idol, then-chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

As labour minister in Merkel’s first coalition government from 2007 to 2009, Scholz helped avert mass lay-offs during the financial crisis by convincing firms to cut workers’ hours with the state topping up their salaries — a policy repeated during the pandemic.

The SPD’s deputy leader for almost a decade, he also backs deeper eurozone integration and greater German contributions to the EU budget post-Brexit.

Scholz himself has admitted he is “not someone who is particularly emotional in politics”.

But his calm demeanour has helped him weather some turbulent times during his stint as finance minister, including the Wirecard fraud debacle.

Wirecard, once a rising star on the German fintech scene, filed for bankruptcy last year in what has been described as Germany’s biggest post-war accounting scandal.

READ ALSO: Why Germany’s finance minister has come under fire over Wirecard scandal

More recently, Scholz has come under fire over allegations that the FIU anti-money laundering authority, under his finance ministry, failed to report potential wrongdoing to the relevant authorities.

But when he was attacked by Laschet during a TV debate over the money-laundering claims, Scholz appeared mostly unfazed, briefly interrupting only to accuse him of “twisting the facts”.

In a snap poll after the 90-minute debate, viewers declared Scholz the winner.

READ ALSO: ‘Most Merkel-like candidate’: SPD’s Scholz wins final German election TV debate

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ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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