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What would Germany do if Russia cuts off the gas supply?

Germany and France are preparing for a cut in Russian gas deliveries, France's economy minister said Thursday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Moscow will turn off the taps for those who refuse to pay in rubles.

Published: 31 March 2022 18:00 CEST

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck and French Business Minister Bruno Le Maire

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and French Business Minister Bruno Le Maire meet in Berlin to discuss European energy policy on March 31st, 2022. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Bernd von Jutrczenka

“On the sanctions against Russia, we will not accept the payment of gas in any other currency than stated in the contract,” said Bruno Le Maire following talks in Berlin with his German counterpart Robert Habeck.

“There could be a situation tomorrow in which … there is no longer any Russian gas. It’s up to us to prepare for these scenarios and we are preparing,” he said.

Separately, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday that Western countries would continue paying for Russian gas in euros or dollars despite the Kremlin’s threat to cut off supplies not paid for in rubles.

“We looked at the contracts for the gas deliveries,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin.

“They say that payments are made in euros, sometimes in dollars… and I made clear in my conversation with the Russian president that that will remain the case,” referring to a telephone call with Putin on Wednesday.

It came as Putin signed a decree that said buyers “must open ruble accounts in Russian banks” from Friday.

“Nobody sells us anything for free, and we are not going to do charity either – that is, existing contracts will be stopped,” he said.

The order signed by Putin means foreign buyers of Russian gas will have to open an account at Gazprom bank and transfer euros or US dollars into it, reported the BBC.

The bank will then use the currency to buy rubles which will then be used to make the payment for gas.

‘Emergency gas plan’

On Wednesday, Economy and Climate Minister Habeck said that Germany had triggered the first “early warning” alert level under its emergency gas plan.

He said it was a precautionary measure to prepare for any supply restrictions.

However, the government also urged households and businesses to cut back on gas as much as possible.

Habeck said that if deliveries from Russia stopped there would be “serious” consequences although supplies would continue to flow.

“We are in a situation where every kilowatt-hour saved helps,” Habeck said on Wednesday, urging consumers to limit gas usage.

“You’re helping Germany, you’re helping Ukraine when you reduce your use of gas, or energy in general.”

What happens if Russia stops energy supplies?

Germany’s Economy Affairs and Climate Action Ministry says that for the coming weeks and summer, thanks to the precautionary measures already taken, Germany could function without gas from Russia.

But in order to guarantee supplies in the coming winter, more measures will have to be taken.

“The more that is consumed in spring and summer, the more difficult the situation will be in winter,” said the ministry.

“Conversely, the more energy we save now, the better we will get through the winter.”

The ministry said once again: “Therefore, every gas consumer is required to save as much energy as possible.”

Since the outbreak of the war, Germany has been trying to diversify its supplies and accelerating investments in renewable energy to get away from its heavy reliance on Russian gas.

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Thousands of jobs have already been lost in the region, where wind farms now rise near abandoned open-pit mines and many people look with dread towards 2038, the deadline for the “coal exit”.

Their fears help explain the strong local support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which does not just rail against migrants but also rejects the green energy push and questions man-made climate change.

At local elections held in Spremberg in June, the AfD scored 39.3 percent – an omen ahead of regional elections next Sunday in the state of Brandenburg, which polls suggest it could win.

Lignite, or brown coal, may be a climate killer, but since the 19th century it has been key to the identity of the Lusatia industrial region on the Polish border, known as the Lausitz in German.

“Thousands of people here have been linked to coal their whole working lives,” said the town’s mayor, Christine Herntier, an independent who has held the post for a decade.

“We are proud of our tradition,” said Herntier, 67, pointing to a huge map on her office wall of the Schwarze Pumpe plant and its surrounding industrial complex.

Most people in Spremberg, population 25,000, have grudgingly accepted the coal phase-out plan, under which the government has earmarked billions for structural transition plans, she said.

But, she added, ahead of the state election the winding down of coal “is still a big issue”.

‘Anger over wind farm’

Michael Hanko, the AfD’s top representative in Spremberg, said he is certain that the looming demise of the lignite industry is “one of the main reasons” residents are voting for his party.

“I don’t think the government has really got them on board with this whole prescribed transformation, saying that we now have to do everything with renewable energies,” Hanko said.

Michael Hanko, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) top candidate, in Spremberg, eastern Germany on, September 9, 2024. Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP

The AfD, founded about a decade ago, scored a triumph earlier this month when it won an election in the eastern state of Thuringia and came a close second in Saxony.

It now also has a good chance of winning in Brandenburg, the state that surrounds Berlin, where it is polling narrowly in first place at around 27 percent.

When the German government decided five years ago to phase out coal, it pledged around €40 billion to help coal regions adapt, with €17 billion for the Lausitz alone.

Much of the money is intended to flow into developing the renewables and hydrogen sectors, helping the region maintain its identity as an energy hub.

But residents complain the investment has been too slow to materialise and is flowing into the wrong places.

In Spremberg, plans to extend a nearby wind park have caused outrage among some locals, who fear it will be a threat to 150-year-old trees, a protected swallow species and drinking water.

‘Something different’

Coal has long been synonymous with the Lausitz region, which takes in parts of Brandenburg and Saxony and a small strip of Poland, and where lignite was discovered in the late 18th century.

But the industry all but collapsed after German reunification in 1990, when most of the region’s open pit mines were shut down and thousands of jobs vanished.

Today, only around 8,000 people are employed in the lignite industry across the Lausitz, with 4,500 of them in Brandenburg, though the industry is still one of the largest private employers in the state and coal remains a strong part of the region’s identity.

Already weary from the problems caused by reunification, people in the region have felt “overwhelmed” by recent global challenges, said Lars Katzmarek, a board member of the Pro-Lausitz campaign group.

Lars Katzmarek, board member of the Pro-Lausitz campaign group. Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP

“The coronavirus, the energy crisis, the Ukraine war – these are all very difficult things that people still haven’t fully digested… and perhaps at some point they just close their ears,” he said.

On a rainy morning in Spremberg, Joachim Paschke, 81, who used to work in mechanical engineering and welding, was buying bread rolls in the bakery opposite the town hall.

“I’m definitely not an AfD supporter but I can understand people who are,” he said.

“The established parties have nothing concrete and the AfD is offering something different. People want change.”

By Femke COLBORNE