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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Macron versus Le Pen: What happens next in the French presidential election race?

We now know who will face each other in the crucial election run-off to decide the next president of France. The race for the Elysée is about to get very tense, so what happens next?

France has voted in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.
France has voted in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. We take a look at what happens next. (Photo by Sameer Al-DOUMY / AFP)

The preliminary results show that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen collected the highest share of the vote in round one, and will therefore go through to the second round run-off.

So what happens next?

Second round

Now the first round is over, we move to round two, which is held on Sunday, April 24th.

This round features only two candidates – Macron and Le Pen – and the winner just needs a simple majority of the vote. Their first round scores are not carried over, they both start again with a blank slate in the hunt to get over 50 percent of the vote.

Polling stations in mainland France will open at 8am on Sunday, April 24th and then at 8pm a projection based on a small number of counted votes is published showing the winner.

Most registered voters vote in both rounds, but it’s possible to only vote in the first, only vote in the second or abstain completely. Some voters also cast a vote blanc as a kind of protest against the quality of the candidates.

Interim

So what happens between round 1 and round 2?

Debate – there is a live TV debate between the two finalists – that is scheduled for the evening of Wednesday, April 20th. This debate has taken place in every French presidential election since 1974, except for in 2002, when President Jacques Chirac refused to debate with far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. 

Media – Expect a lot of media coverage in the next two weeks, but broadcasters are required to give equal airtime to the two candidates in the lead up to the second round vote.

Campaigning – Formal campaigning restarts after round one, with the candidates taking part in rallies, meetings and walk-abouts as they try to drum up support. All campaigning is suspended on the day before the second round vote. 

What about the other candidates? 

The 10 losing candidates from the first round take no formal part in the election proceedings from here on in. They can, however, have an influence the second round result by calling on their supporters to back one candidate or another. 

Immediately after the first round centre right Valérie Pécresse, centre left Anne Hidalgo, green Yannick Jadot and Communist Fabien Roussel called on their supporters to vote Macron in the second round. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third and narrowly missed out on the second round, did not call for a Macron vote, but told his supporters that “not a single vote” should go to Le Pen.

These candidates  will also be anxiously looking at their final poll scores – first round candidates who scored more than 5 percent of  the vote can claim up to 47.5 percent of their campaign expenses back from the State, those who scored less than five percent can only claim a maximum of 4.75 percent back.

Initial results show that only four candidates – Macron, Le Pen, Mélenchon and the extreme right candidate Eric Zemmour – scored more than 5 percent. Centre-right Valerie Pécresse was hovering around the 5 percent mark so she might just scrape some money back.

And what happens after the second round?

The current presidential mandate expires on May 13th, so if France has a new president the handover of power must be completed by this date. If the incumbent wins, they simply carry on, although it’s quite common for a newly re-elected president to make some changes to their cabinet at this point.

This year, the presidential elections are shortly followed by parliamentary elections, when the French go back to the polls to elect their local MP to the Assemblée nationale.

At this point the new or newly re-elected president will see whether they can command a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament) and therefore how easy it is going to be to get their policies and reforms passed over the next five years.

Like the presidential elections, parliamentary elections are held over two rounds, this time with just a week between voting – on June 12th and June 19th.  

And then in either April or May 2027 we get to do this all over again with the next presidential election. 

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POLITICS

French PM says new government names will be revealed ‘before Sunday’

France's long-running political deadlock finally reached a conclusion on Thursday night as newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier travelled to the Presidential palace to present his new government.

French PM says new government names will be revealed 'before Sunday'

Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s office said on Thursday that he would “go to the Elysée to propose to the president a government that is ready to serve France”.

After a meeting earlier on Thursday afternoon with the heads of political parties, Barner then travelled to the Elysée Palace on Thursday evening to meet president Emmanuel Macron.

Their meeting lasted for just under an hour and at the end journalists saw Macron showing Barnier out saying Merci beaucoup, à demain (thanks very much, see you tomorrow).

After the meeting, Barnier’s office said he had had a “constructive exchange” with the president and that the full list of names of the new ministers will be made public “before Sunday, after the usual checks have been made”.

French media reported that the full list of 38 names, of which 16 will be full minsters, includes seven ministers from Macron’s centrist group, two from fellow centrists MoDem and three from Barnier’s own party, the right-wing Les Républicains.

Listen to John Lichfield discussing the challenges that Barnier faces in the latest episode of the Talking France podcast – download here or listen on the link below

Barnier’s statement said that “after two weeks of intensive consultations with the different political groups” he has found the architecture of his new government, adding that his priorities would be to;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

France has been in a state of limbo ever since parliamentary elections in July produced a deadlock with no group coming close to winning enough seats for a majority.

A caretaker government remained in place over the summer while president Emmanuel Macron declared an ‘Olympics truce’.

He finally appointed the right-wing former minister and ex-Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on September 5th.

Barnier has spent the last two weeks in intense negotiations in his attempt to form a government that won’t immediately be brought down through a motion of no-confidence in parliament.

Numerous left-wing politicians are reported to have refused to serve in his government while several high-profile Macronists have also ruled themselves out, including long-serving finance minister Bruno Le Maire who last week announced that he was quitting politics.

The reported make up of the new government does not reflect the election result – in which the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire coalition came first, followed by Macron’s centrists with the far-right Rassemblement National in third – but Barnier’s hope is that enough MPs will support it to avoid an immediate motion de censure (vote of no confidence).

The government’s first task will be to prepare the 2025 budget, which is already a week late. France’s soaring budget deficit and threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies mean that it will be a tricky task with Barnier, who has prepared the ground for tax hikes by warning that the situation is ‘very serious’.

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