Read news from:
Austria
SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

Heavy defeat for Scholz’s SPD in German regional vote

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a crushing defeat in a key German regional election on Sunday, in a damning verdict on his perceived weak response to the war in Ukraine.

Published: 15 May 2022 18:36 CEST
Updated: 16 May 2022 09:18 CEST
Leaders of the German parties
Party candidates in NRW answer questions from a TV presenter on May 15th, 2022, as the results come in. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Fabian Strauch

The loss for the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia is a big blow for Scholz, who has held the reins of Europe’s biggest economy for less than six months.

Results from the vote in Germany’s most populous state showed the SPD on around 26.7 percent, with the conservative CDU far out in front on around 35.7 percent.

The result are the SPD’s worst-ever showing in the state, a prosperous industrial hub that is home to some 13 million eligible voters and around a quarter of the population.

North Rhine-Westphalia, which houses major cities Cologne, Bonn, Düsseldorf, Essen and Dortmund, was an SPD stronghold during the 1980s and 1990s but had been ruled by the CDU since its last election in 2017.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Why Sunday’s state parliament vote in NRW is important for German politics

Back then, the CDU under Armin Laschet triumphed with around 33 percent of the vote, while the SPD finished on 31.2 percent.

Laschet went on to replace Angela Merkel as the leader of the CDU before losing to Scholz in the race to become chancellor last year.

The CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia is now led by moderate Hendrik Wüst, 46, who said he believed his party was “quite clearly the strongest force” and had a mandate to form the next regional government.

Green wave

Scholz had played a prominent role in the election campaign but his involvement appears to have done nothing to help SPD candidate Thomas Kutschaty, 53.

The Social Democrats were also roundly beaten in another regional election last week, in the small northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.

In North Rhine-Westphalia, the Green party received 18.2 percent of the vote — almost triple its score in the last regional vote in 2017, when it scored 6.4 percent.

READ ALSO: Four things the Schleswig-Holstein vote tells us about German politics

The liberal FDP was on around five percent, a sharp drop on its performance on 2017 when it joined forces with the CDU to form the regional government.

At the federal level, Scholz’s party has formed a government with the Greens and the FDP after winning last September’s general election.

The Greens have been perceived as stronger than the SPD in their response to the war in Ukraine, with Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock now Germany’s most popular politicians.

Regional Green party candidate Mona Neubaur saw the local result as a vote of confidence in her party’s performance at the federal level, crediting its leaders with “clarity and purpose in times of crisis”.

To add to the SPD’s woes, Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht is currently caught up in a storm of criticism for allowing her son to accompany her on a government helicopter on their way to a family vacation.

“The stakes in this election are high,” said Der Spiegel magazine ahead of the vote, pointing out that “whoever governs here automatically has a say at the federal level”.

Armin Laschet and Hendrik Wüst

Armin Laschet, the former state premier of NRW and leader of the CDU, stands with Hendrik Wüst at a conservative election night party. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Oliver Berg

‘The CDU is back’

Scholz, by contrast, has seen his ratings slide during the war in Ukraine, with critics accusing him of hesitancy to provide heavy weapons to help Kyiv resist Russia’s invasion.

SPD general secretary Kevin Kühnert said his party would seek talks with the Greens to build a coalition, similar to the one at the federal level.

But given the scale of the SPD’s defeat, it seems unlikely it will be able to claim leadership of the region.

The SPD is “the big loser” in the election, said former CDU health minister Jens Spahn, and no party could claim a mandate to govern after such a “historically bad result”.

The victory will be seen as an important boost for the CDU, relegated to the opposition in last year’s election after 16 years in power under Merkel and now led by veteran right-winger Friedrich Merz.

“The CDU is back,” Merz said on Sunday, hailing an “outstanding” result for Wüst but also a “test of the mood” at the national level.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

SHOW COMMENTS