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POLITICS

Why are France and Italy rowing over migrants and what are the consequences?

French-Italian relations soured this week amid a row over migrant rescues, with the two countries accusing each other of "incomprehensible" behaviour. Here's a look at what it all means.

Why are France and Italy rowing over migrants and what are the consequences?
A migrant child plays in a cardboard box with the inscription "France" aboard the Ocean Viking rescue ship on November 10th, 2022. France accepted the ship after Italy refused to allow it to dock.(Photo by Vincenzo Circosta / AFP)

A row between France and Italy escalated further on Friday morning, as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni slammed what she called the French government’s “incomprehensible and unjustified” response to taking in a migrant rescue vessel rejected by Rome.

France had warned Italy of  “severe consequences” on Thursday after it accepted the Ocean Viking rescue ship carrying 234 migrants amid a blazing row over which country is responsible for them.

France has never before allowed a rescue vessel carrying migrants from the Mediterranean to land on its coast, but did so this time because Italy had refused access.

Italian leaders had on Wednesday claimed that France was ready to accept the ship – leading to suggestions that Italy’s government had tried to force France into accepting the rescue ship by announcing a deal when there wasn’t one.

Paris immediately hit back, saying on Thursday it would accept the ship but would suspend another deal to take thousands of migrants from Italy.

How did this start?

The Ocean Viking ship had initially sought access to Italy’s coast, closest to where the migrants were picked up, saying health and sanitary conditions onboard were rapidly worsening.

Italy refused, saying other nations must take in more of the thousands of migrants trying to reach Europe from North Africa every year.

French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin slammed Italy’s stance as “incomprehensible”, saying the Ocean Viking “is located without any doubt in Italy’s search and rescue zone”.

French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said on Thursday the Ocean Viking could dock at the port of Toulon and a third of the migrant passengers will be “relocated” to France. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

He slammed Italian authorities for “making the migrants wait at sea for 15 days”.

Later on Thursday and again on Friday, the Italian government also used the word “incomprehensible” to describe France’s response to allowing a migrant ship to disembark in a French port.

What’s behind Italy’s policy?

Italy’s refusal this week to allow migrants to disembark is a move that will please the new government’s far-right, Eurosceptic support base, and is thought also to be intended to force other countries to accept changes Italy wants to make to the EU-wide policy on accepting and distributing asylum seekers between member states.

Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said this week that the government was sending a “signal” to other EU nations that international law must change.

READ ALSO: Anger as Italy accused of illegally rejecting migrants rescued at sea

Under international law, ships in distress or carrying rescued passengers must be allow entry in the nearest port of call – which means Italy and often Malta must take in those rescued after trying to cross the Mediterranean from Libya.

In June, around a dozen EU countries, including France, agreed to take in migrants who arrive in Italy and other main entry points.

People on the deck of the Ocean Viking rescue ship in the Gulf of Catania in the Mediterranean Sea in international waters on November 6th, 2022. (Photo by VINCENZO CIRCOSTA / AFP)

Rome wants “an agreement to establish, on the basis of population, how migrants with a right to asylum are relocated to various countries”, Tajani said ahead of a meeting of EU ministers next week.

But commentators said Italy’s tactic of apparently forcing France to take the ship could easily backfire.

The hardline policy is led by Meloni – the leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party, who once said Italy should “repatriate migrants back to their countries and then sink the boats that rescued them” – and anti-immigrant League leader Matteo Salvini, known for his policy of closing Italian ports to rescue ships as interior minister in 2019.

Their hardline stance is expected to lead to strained ties that complicate decision-making on a range of subjects at the EU level.

“We’re seeing diplomatic arm-wrestling between France and Italy that could open a breach for similar conflicts, because Italy is clearly challenging a European accord (on migrants) that was in its favour,” Matthieu Tardis of the French Institute for International Relations told AFP.

How has France reacted?

Darmanin on Thursday warned of  “severe consequences” for Italy’s bilateral relations with France and the EU as a whole, and said Italy’s refusal to accept the migrants was “incomprehensible”.

He said France had acted according to its “humanitarian duty”, but the migrants were Italy’s responsibility under EU rules, and that the French move was an “exceptional” measure that would not guide future action.

What are the consequences?

The row has gone beyond a war of words as France has suspended a plan to take in 3,500 refugees currently in Italy under a European accord and urged Germany and other EU nations to do the same.

French police said on Friday it had also reinforced controls at Italian border crossings.

The flare-up of tensions echoes European migrant disputes four years ago, when French President Emmanuel Macron in particular clashed with Italy’s anti-immigrant interior minister Matteo Salvini.

Salvini, now back in government as infrastructure minister – meaning he has control of Italy’s ports – has again pledged to follow a hard line on preventing migrant arrivals.

The row over migrants marks a return to fractured relations between France and Italy after previous cooperation under Mario Draghi’s government.

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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