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ECONOMY

Danish economy predicted to have tough 2023 in OECD report

European nations including Denmark are set to feel the pinch of difficult global economic conditions next year, according to a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Danish economy predicted to have tough 2023 in OECD report
The OECD predict fractional growth for the Danish economy in 2023. Photo: Emil Helms/Ritzau Scanpix

The OECD expects Denmark’s economy to get a marginal growth of 0.1 percent in 2023. The forecast is 1.3 percent lower than in the previous report from June this year.

Despite the OECD considerably reducing expectations for Denmark’s economy, analyst Tore Stramer, senior economist with the Danish Chamber of Commerce, in the Nordic country said the forecast was “mildly optimistic” in comments to news wire Ritzau.

The central bank, Nationalbanken, has forecast negative growth of -0.1 percent next year.

“OECD also points out that the slowing down of growth in the Danish economy is happening at a time when the pressure on the labour market is still high,” Stramer said in a written comment.

“The OECD therefore also recommends that fiscal policy should also be restrictive and further restrictions should be considered if pressure from inflation persists,” he said.

The economic co-operation organisation predicted in September growth of 2.2 percent for the global economy next year. That prediction is retained despite the outlook for Europe.

“This shows that the global economy has not been hit by new, serious shocks in recent months,” Stramer said.

Global economy is significantly impacted by the war in Ukraine, which has caused prives to go up.

Central banks have responded to the situation by putting interest rates up.

Tackling inflation should be a political priority next year according to the senior economist with the Confederation of Danish Industry, Allan Sørensen.

“Inflation will subside in 2023 but will still be at a high level. The fight against inflation will need more interest rate increases while fiscal policy must not cause more [inflation],” he told Ritzau.

OECD notes in its report that a significant degree of uncertainty is attached to the forecasts.

But an increased risk of economic downfall in in play due to “insecurity around energy supply, particularly in Europe over the coming two winters,” Stramer said.

“Additionally, there is a risk that restrictions of financial policies will slow the global economy more than expected,” he said.

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ECONOMY

IN DATA: Danish incomes rise faster than any time in the last 30 years

The average income earned in Denmark shot up by 6.3 percent in 2023, the largest annual rise in earnings recorded since the early 1990s. We break down the numbers.

IN DATA: Danish incomes rise faster than any time in the last 30 years

The average pre-tax income in Denmark rose to 395,500 kroner in 2023, a 6.3 percent rise on the average in 2022, and the highest year-on-year percentage rise in real incomes seen in the country in 30 years.

The sharp rise was driven primarily by income from investments, with shares and funds which performed poorly in 2022 bouncing back strongly in 2023, leading to a near-doubling in the earnings booked by many Danes. 

"The high increase in the average total income per person before tax in 2023 must be seen in the light of an extremely good year on the financial markets," Statistics Denmark wrote in a press release. The average pre-tax income from assets shot up 77 percent to 24,600 kroner in 2023, after the disappointing 29 percent decline in investment earnings received on average in 2022. 

Income from salaries rose a very solid 4.1 percent, with the average pre-tax salary rising by 10,100 kroner to 255,900 kroner. Income from small businesses rose 3.8 percent from 265,500 kroner to 275,500 kroner, while income for the self-employed was flat compared to 2022 at an average of 18,600 kroner. 

"It's hardly surprising that income is rising on average," Brian Friis Helmer, a private economist at Arbejdernes Landsbank, said in a comment. "Employment rose by more than 30,000 last year, and wages in the private sector, in particular, rose noticeably. With more Danes in work and more in the salary bag, it raises the average income." 

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