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RIOTS

Will France’s riots benefit far-right Le Pen?

In her first speech in parliament as France's riots ebbed this week, far-right leader Marine Le Pen accused the government of turning the country into a "hell" that she had foreseen.

President for the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) group Marine Le Pen Marine Le Pen attends a session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on July 4th, 2023.
President for the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) group Marine Le Pen Marine Le Pen attends a session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on July 4th, 2023. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP

“The reality is that you didn’t want to hear any of the warnings,” said the 54-year-old, whose 89 MPs form the biggest opposition party in parliament since elections last year.

“We predicted what is happening despite great adversity. Unfortunately, we were right.”

She and her father Jean-Marie have been forecasting France’s demise and even civil war since the 1970s in doom-laden speeches focused on the presence of foreigners in France.

“Above all and before anything else, we need to stop anarchic immigration,” Le Pen continued.

The political fallout from France’s worst urban violence since 2005 remains highly uncertain, leading to speculation about who stands to gain from the breakdown in law and order that has shocked millions of French people.

Le Pen and many others on the right have sought to blame the mass looting and clashes on immigrant-origin communities, mostly from former French colonies in Africa, who have settled in suburban areas in towns and cities since the 1960s.

Despite the riots being sparked by allegations of police brutality and racism after the fatal shooting of Nahel M. – a 17-year-old boy of Algerian origin in Paris – many analysts feel the far-right promise of a radical crackdown on crime and immigration could find new takers.

READ ALSO: Ask the experts: How much of a threat are violent far-right activists in France?

“I think we’ll see a rise of several points for the National Rally in an extension of the quite incredible gains they’ve made over the last few years,” Olivier Babeau, co-founder of the right-leaning Institute Sapiens think-tank, told AFP.

“Without them really doing or saying much, events are helping them convince part of the population,” he added.

Le Pen achieved her highest-ever score in last year’s presidential elections – 41.5 percent in the second round – and then celebrated record parliamentary election results two months later.

Jean-Yves Camus, a far-right specialist at the Jean Jaures Foundation, agreed that Le Pen and the even more radical anti-Islam politician Eric Zemmour looked the most likely to gain from the riots.

“There’s a risk that Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen benefit from the situation, notably during the European elections which will take place next year,” he told AFP.

Government response

The government has sought to counter the narrative being pushed by the far-right and in the mainstream Republican party that immigrants were to blame for the unrest, which saw 273 buildings belonging to the security forces and 168 schools damaged.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said that 90 percent of the roughly 3,500 people arrested during the five nights of the most severe rioting were French nationals.

“Yes, there were some who could be from immigrant backgrounds,” Darmanin, who has Algerian roots, said of the lists of names of detainees he had seen while touring police stations.

READ ALSO: LATEST: Are there still riots and clashes in France?

“But there were a lot of Kevins and Matteos too,” he told a hearing in the Senate on Wednesday.

“This identity-based analysis seems wrong to me,” he said while acknowledging that the question of how best to integrate immigrants was “interesting.”

Camus believes that the government might be credited by some voters for having brought the unrest under control in under a week thanks to a massive deployment of up to 45,000 security forces at their peak.

The last nationwide riots in 2005 lasted for nearly three weeks and led the government to resort to a state of emergency.

“Without having to use a state of emergency and with a strategy of responding gradually, the government demonstrated that it was able to contain the movement,” he told AFP.

Left splits

President Emmanuel Macron has condemned the “inexcusable” police shooting which sparked the riots, which saw an officer open fire at point-blank range having stopped a 17-year-old driving a Mercedes without a licence in a west Paris suburb.

The centrist head of state has promised a response, but major police reform – called for by the left – remains off the table.

Macron has so far focused on how to punish parents whose children commit crimes amid shock about the young ages of many of the rioters.

The country’s leftist alliance is also at odds, with the head of the radical France Unbowed party Jean-Luc Melenchon creating rifts with his Socialist and Communist allies by failing to unequivocally call for calm.

He has suggested the riots were “poor people rebelling.”

Left-leaning Le Monde newspaper sharply criticised him in an editorial, saying that he was “at odds with a very strong demand for a return to order which is rising in public opinion.”

“In a country shocked by five days of urban riots, the left is not reassuring,” it said on Thursday.

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POLITICS

LATEST: French PM says new government names will be revealed ‘before Sunday’

France's long-running political deadlock finally reached a conclusion on Thursday night as newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier travelled to the Presidential palace to present his new government.

LATEST: French PM says new government names will be revealed 'before Sunday'

Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s office said on Thursday that he would “go to the Elysée to propose to the president a government that is ready to serve France”.

After a meeting earlier on Thursday afternoon with the heads of political parties, Barner then travelled to the Elysée Palace on Thursday evening to meet president Emmanuel Macron.

Their meeting lasted for just under an hour and at the end journalists saw Macron showing Barnier out saying Merci beaucoup, à demain (thanks very much, see you tomorrow).

After the meeting, Barnier’s office said he had had a “constructive exchange” with the president and that the full list of names of the new ministers will be made public “before Sunday, after the usual checks have been made”.

French media reported that the full list of 38 names, of which 16 will be full minsters, includes seven ministers from Macron’s centrist group, two from fellow centrists MoDem and three from Barnier’s own party, the right-wing Les Républicains.

Listen to John Lichfield discussing the challenges that Barnier faces in the latest episode of the Talking France podcast – download here or listen on the link below

Barnier’s statement said that “after two weeks of intensive consultations with the different political groups” he has found the architecture of his new government, adding that his priorities would be to;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

France has been in a state of limbo ever since parliamentary elections in July produced a deadlock with no group coming close to winning enough seats for a majority.

A caretaker government remained in place over the summer while president Emmanuel Macron declared an ‘Olympics truce’.

He finally appointed the right-wing former minister and ex-Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on September 5th.

Barnier has spent the last two weeks in intense negotiations in his attempt to form a government that won’t immediately be brought down through a motion of no-confidence in parliament.

Numerous left-wing politicians are reported to have refused to serve in his government while several high-profile Macronists have also ruled themselves out, including long-serving finance minister Bruno Le Maire who last week announced that he was quitting politics.

The reported make up of the new government does not reflect the election result – in which the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire coalition came first, followed by Macron’s centrists with the far-right Rassemblement National in third – but Barnier’s hope is that enough MPs will support it to avoid an immediate motion de censure (vote of no confidence).

The government’s first task will be to prepare the 2025 budget, which is already a week late. France’s soaring budget deficit and threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies mean that it will be a tricky task with Barnier, who has prepared the ground for tax hikes by warning that the situation is ‘very serious’.

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