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HEALTH

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

It’s back again: amid sinking temperatures, the incidence of Covid-19 has been slowly rising in Germany. But is this enough to merit worrying about the virus?

FFP2 masks
Archive photo shows a person in Brandenburg donning a face mask in the autumn. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-tmn | Christin Klose

More people donning face masks in supermarkets, friends cancelling plans last minute due to getting sick with Covid-19. We might have seen some of those familiar reminders recently that the coronavirus is still around, but could there really be a resurgence of the virus like we experienced during the pandemic years?

According to virologists, the answer seems to be ‘maybe’: since July, the number of people newly infected with Covid-19 has been slowly rising from a very low level.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), nine people per 100,000 inhabitants became newly infected in Germany last week. A year ago, there were only around 270 reported cases.

Various Corona variants are currently on the loose in the country. According to the RKI,  the EG.5 (also called Eris) and XBB.1.16 lines were each detected in the week ending September 3rd with a share of just under 23 percent. 

The highly mutated variant BA.2.86 (Pirola), which is currently under observation by the World Health Organisation (WHO), also arrived in the country this week, according to RKI. 

High number of unreported case

The RKI epidemiologists also warned about a high number of unreported cases since hardly any testing is done. They pointed out that almost half of all registered sewage treatment plants report an increasing viral load in wastewater tests.

The number of hospital admissions has also increased slightly, but are still a far cry from the occupation rate amid the pandemic. Last week it was two per 100,000 inhabitants. In the intensive care units, only 1.2 percent of all beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Still, a good three-quarters (76.4 percent) of people in Germany have been vaccinated at least twice and thus have basic immunity, reported RKI. 

Since Monday, doctors’ offices have been vaccinating with the adapted vaccine from Biontech/Pfizer, available to anyone over 12 years old, with a vaccine for small children set to be released the following week and one for those between 5 and 11 to come out October 2nd.

But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has so far only recommended that people over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions get vaccinated.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Who should get a Covid jab this autumn in Germany?

“The pandemic is over, the virus remains,” he said. “We cannot predict the course of coming waves of corona, but it is clear that older people and people with pre-existing conditions remain at higher risk of becoming severely ill from Covid-19”

The RKI also recommended that people with a cold voluntarily wear a mask. Anyone exhibiting cough, cold, sore throat or other symptoms of a respiratory illness should voluntarily stay at home for three to five days and take regular corona self-tests. 

However, further measures such as contact restrictions are not necessary, he said.

One of many diseases

As of this autumn, Covid-19 could be one of many respiratory diseases. As with influenza, there are no longer absolute infection figures for coronavirus.

Saarbrücken pharmacist Thorsten Lehr told German broadcaster ZDF that self-protection through vaccinations, wearing a mask and getting tested when symptoms appear are prerequisites for surviving the Covid autumn well. 

Only a new, more aggressive mutation could completely turn the game around, he added.

On April 7th of this year, Germany removed the last of its over two-year long coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing in some public places.

READ ALSO: German doctors recommend Covid-19 self-tests amid new variant

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HEALTH

Germany sees spike in summer flu and Covid infections

According to official data released by the Robert Koch Institute, instances of respiratory infections like coronavirus are unusually high for this time of year.

Germany sees spike in summer flu and Covid infections

There’s a common joke in Germany, normally made during the winter flu season: “Husten (cough), we have a problem.” But this year the number of respiratory infections, causing coughs, fevers and aches, is rising in the middle of summer.

According to the Robert Koch Institute’s (RKI) most recent respiratory infection statistics (ARE), the number of Covid-19 infections in Germany has been rising steadily over the past weeks to reach 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the week beginning June 17th. This increase follows a drop-off at the turn of the season.

READ ALSO: Flu cases on the rise in Germany – When (and how) should you take sick leave?

In Berlin, meanwhile, the number of Covid infections recorded in the laboratories and by local authorities has doubled within a week, the RKI told regional newspaper Tagesspiegel.

This reflects a general trend of rising flu-like infections this summer, with viruses like rhinovirus and enterovirus among the most commonly recorded. 

The past week saw an increase in the incidence of this type of infection rom 1,200 to 1,300 per 100,000 people.

Meanwhile, the overall incidence of respiratory viruses hit 5,900 per 100,000 residents, which equates to around five million cases in the population as a whole.

READ ALSO: Who should get a top-up Covid jab in Germany?

In its weekly infection report, the RKI states that this type of virus is “currently at a comparatively high level for this time of year”, but adds that severe cases remain rare so far.

The health authority advises people with symptoms of an acute respiratory infection to stay home for three to five days or until their symptoms have improved significantly. 

Self-reported data

Since the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the public health authority has been relying heavily on data self-submitted through its GrippeWeb portal to monitor the prevalence of flu-type viruses in Germany.

This data is then extrapolated out to the general population to create estimated incidences for society as a whole.

Infections are also partially monitored through local health authorities and lab reports, as well as through samples from waste water plants that contain traces of the virus.

According to the RKI, water from around 100 waste plants was available for the latest report, covering around 19 percent of the population.

New viruses 

Though Covid has been far less prevalent since the pandemic became endemic, top Berlin virologist Christian Drosten has recently issued warnings that other new virus could potentially spark a new global health crisis.

Speaking to RND at the end of June, Drosten cited the MERS virus and the H5N1 bird flu virus – the first human case of which was recently recorded in the US – as possible triggers for a new pandemic. 

According to the Charité virologist, there have even been traces of H5N1 in wholesale milk from the US that has come from infected cows.

“There has never been anything like this before, such extremely large outbreaks in cows – all the experts are worried,” he said, adding that the outlook was still unclear.

“We don’t really know what will happen now because we don’t have very good insight into the data,” Drosten said. 

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