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PROPERTY

‘Burst bubble’: Germany sees record drop in property prices

Prices for residential houses and flats in Germany fell by an average of 10.2 percent this year, marking the biggest decline since records began.

Blocks of flats in Berlin
Blocks of flats in the German capital of Berlin. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Florian Schuh

After years of soaring prices in Germany’s property market, the turnaround has been swift and painful. 

According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), residential property prices fell by an average of 10.2 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year – the sharpest decline since the time series began in 2000. 

Both in cities and rural regions, the drop in prices seen in the first two quarters of the year continued – though the price of flats fell less dramatically than houses. 

In the metropolises of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart and Düsseldorf, detached and semi-detached houses became 12.7 percent cheaper in the third quarter, while buyers had to pay an average of 9.1 per cent less for flats than a year earlier.

In sparsely populated rural districts, prices for detached and semi-detached houses fell by 12.4 percent, while apartments were 5.6 percent cheaper year-on-year.

READ ALSO: Where are property prices in Germany falling the fastest?

Compared to the second quarter, residential properties became 1.4 per cent cheaper, Destatis announced on Friday. The news marks the first year-on-year drop in prices since 2010.

The main reason for the fall in prices is the sharp rise in interest rates, which have made loans more expensive, as well as high construction costs.

Many people can no longer or no longer want to afford their own four walls, while banks are struggling to sell mortgages at the current eye-watering rates. 

This is in spite of the fact that demand for housing remains high, not least due to the high level of immigration in Germany and lanquid house-building rates.

On Thursday, Housing Minister Klara Geywitz announced that the government would once again miss its building target of 400,000 new homes per year, with 270,000 newbuilds expected in 2023 and around 265,000 expected in 2024. 

READ ALSO: What will happen to the German property market in 2024?

‘Speculative price bubble’ 

The decline in the third quarter marks the first price fall in the current year since 2010, when the property boom began. Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are particularly affected, according to an analysis published on Wednesday by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).

The DIW calculations show that the road to home ownership remains rocky for buyers.

Despite the declines of recent quarters, property is still much more expensive than at the start of the boom: prices for detached and terraced houses doubled between 2010 and 2023, according to the researchers.

Rents rose much less during this period, by a total of 53 percent. Buying an apartment in major cities currently costs as much as 27 annual rents, compared to 28 annual rents last year.

READ ALSO: Why renting is still cheaper than buying in Germany

“Until 2022, there was a speculative price bubble in Germany, one of the biggest in the last 50 years,” said DIW study author Konstantin Kholodilin. “Since then, prices have been falling. The bubble has burst.”

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RENTING

Do rising rents make buying a home in Germany a better option?

Across Germany, rents have shot up in the last two years while property prices have fallen. Experts say this is making buying more attractive than renting at the moment.

Do rising rents make buying a home in Germany a better option?

For several years, property prices in Germany rose at a much faster pace than rents. Between 2016 and 2022, the average price for apartments climbed by a dramatic 76.5 percent, according to an analysis by real estate company ImmoScout 24. During the same period, rents for flats rose by 26.8 percent.

Experts said this was due to comparatively low interest rates and high buyer demand along with limited supply – all of which caused the property market to explode. 

However, this trend has reversed over the past two years, with rental prices rising significantly more than purchase prices.

According to ImmoScout, falling property prices is a big factor. The price index for apartments fell by 9.4 percent between 2022 and 2024, while rents rose on average by 11.7 percent, reducing the difference in price development from a peak of 39.2 percent in 2022 to 12.9 percent this year.

At the same time, the strong pressure on the rental market has resulted in a considerable financial burden for tenants. An earlier ImmoScout analysis from March showed that rental flats in Germany’s 40 largest cities received 21 times more enquiries than owner-occupied flats.

In another study released in summer, real estate experts Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) found that asking rents for flats in the eight major cities of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Stuttgart and Leipzig climbed by an average of 6.3 percent in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

READ ALSO: Rents still rising fast in major German cities

Real estate experts say it means buying a property in Germany has become more attractive.

“The sharp rise in rents in particular is making buying a property as an investment or home more and more attractive,” said Dr Gesa Crockford from ImmoScout. 

The index values for renting and buying have converged even more in Germany’s five largest cities – Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne and Munich. 

Berlin prenzlauer Berg

Flats in the Berlin district of Prenzlauer Berg. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Monika Skolimowska

The purchase price of existing flats rose by 65.5 percent between 2016 and 2021, while the rental price only increased by 21.6 percent. From the peak in 2021, prices for apartments have fallen by 2.1 percent, while rents have continued to rise by 28.9 percent. As a result, the gap in price development since 2016 has shrunk from 36.1 percent (2021) to 3.4 percent (2024).

People looking to rent in major cities are not only facing rising rents, but also fierce competition to snag an affordable place to live. 

“In the metropolises, buying has become increasingly worthwhile over the past two years,” said Crockford. “There, the difference between purchase and rental prices has levelled off from 30 percent and more to a low single-digit percentage range.”

Is it better to buy a home than rent?

Choosing to buy instead of renting is of course a personal decision and you have to consider several factors – including whether you can afford the mortgage and extra fees associated with house buying.

That said, property prices are expected to increase again slightly after the dip over the last two years.

READ ALSO: Is autumn 2024 the right time to buy a property in Germany?

However, it should also be noted that tenants rights are strong in Germany so renting can be a worthwhile and savvy way to go, if you can find a home that is affordable to you. 

That goes some way to explain why Germany has one of the lowest level of property ownership in the EU, with just over half of the population owning their own home.

Meanwhile, one study released in 2023 by credit insurer Allianz Trade found that buying property in Germany is “significantly more expensive than renting in Germany”.

Even if rents were raised by the legal maximum of 20 percent next year compared to 2023, the difference between average mortgage repayments and average rents would still come in at €381 per month, said the insurer. 

However, some buyers may consider a home an investment in the long term and rely on the value going up over time – though this, of course, is not guaranteed. 

READ ALSO: How the cost of renting in Germany compares to home ownership

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