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Forecast: Where in France will see the worst of the icy weather?

Temperatures are expected to plunge below zero across France from this weekend. Here’s what to expect.

Published: 5 January 2024 10:47 CET

Forecast: Where in France will see the worst of the icy weather?

Expect difficut driving conditions next week, as temperatures plummet. (Photo by SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP)

Starting this weekend, the wet and mild weather that soaked much of France over the Christmas and New Year holiday period is expected to be replaced by a freeze that could last for several days, with temperatures predicted to fall below zero in much of the country.

For the first time since February 2018, France’s national heat indicator – the national average of daytime and night-time temperatures – could dip below zero on Tuesday.

A partir de ce #weekend, les températures vont baisser. Un temps hivernal et froid va s'installer la semaine prochaine.

🥶Lundi et mardi, les maximales dépasseront rarement 0°C sur une bonne moitié est du pays, jusqu'à la région Centre et Ile de France

👉https://t.co/9boEkUDOkK pic.twitter.com/t3tMK3cTu0

— Météo-France (@meteofrance) January 4, 2024

On Saturday, the north-east is forecast to have its first local frosts of 2024, as cold air from the north and east spreads over the country.

Temperatures in northern France are not expected to get above 8C, while the south could see the mercury rise to 11C.

Starting on Sunday, the north-eastern quarter will likely see more serious frosts, with daily temperatures close to 0C in the Paris region; and no higher than 1C in Strasbourg, Clermont-Ferrand and Lille; and 2C in Rennes. Elsewhere, a high of 9C is forecast in Marseille, and 8C in Bordeaux.

In the south, however, strong chilly winds will make it feel much colder, notably in the Rhône Valley and around the Pyrénées-Orientales.

Cold air is expected settle over most of France from Monday. Morning frosts are forecast in most areas, while temperatures are likely to fall as low as -5C from the Massif Central to the eastern borders for a good part of the week. Some forecasts predict local temperatures as low as -10C.

Vague de #froid la semaine prochaine sur la France ! 📉

Des minimales parfois situées mardi matin entre -5 et -10 degrés ! 🥶

Toutes nos cartes ↩️https://t.co/7XlsIEREdi pic.twitter.com/mD2gM8zodi

— Meteored | tameteo (@MeteoredFR) January 5, 2024

At the start of the week, maximum temperatures will struggle to pass 0C in the eastern half of the country, as far north as the Ile de France, according to national forecaster Météo-France. In fact, only the coastal north-west, south-west, and around the Mediterranean are predicted to see daytime temperatures rise noticeably above freezing – though the wind chill may make it feel much colder.

🥶 C'est bien l'air très #froid actuellement situé sur la Scandinavie et la Russie >> https://t.co/WyaIizgZxM qui va envahir une bonne partie de l’Europe (y compris la France) dans les prochains jours (#Moscou-Paris). Notre bulletin ici >>> https://t.co/utXhJwztKG
Animation ICON… pic.twitter.com/OEfLbuxnTd

— Guillaume Séchet (@Meteovilles) January 4, 2024

As of Friday, Météo-France, however, had not yet designated the upcoming cold period as a cold snap (vague de froid), which has a very specific definition.

For a cold snap to be declared, France must experience three consecutive days in which temperatures dip below -2C, and rise no higher than 0.9C. It officially ends when temperatures rise above 2.2C.

Cold snaps can also be characterised on a regional scale when cold spells last at least two days and temperatures are well below seasonal normals for the region concerned.

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Elsewhere in Switzerland, a man was found dead in a hotel in Saas-Grund in the southwest canton of Valais, police said, adding that he was probably taken by surprise by a sudden rapid rise in floodwater.

Images published in the online publication 20minuten showed parts of the town covered in a thick layer of mud and rocks.

Another man is also missing in Valais, police said.

In France, three people in their 70s and 80s died in the northeastern Aube region on Saturday when a falling tree crushed the car they were travelling in, the local authority told AFP.

A fourth passenger was in critical care, it added.

Switzerland’s civil security services said “several hundred” people were evacuated in the southern canton of Valais and roads closed after the Rhone and its tributaries overflowed in different locations.

The situation in Valais was “under control” Sunday, Frederic Favre, the official responsible for civil security, told a press conference, but he warned that it would remain “fragile” for the next several days.

Emergency services were assessing the best way to evacuate 300 people who had arrived for a football tournament in the mountain town of Peccia, while almost 70 more were being evacuated from a holiday camp in the village of Mogno.

The poor weather was making rescue work particularly difficult, police had said earlier, with several valleys in the southern cantons of Ticino and Valais near the border with Italy, inaccessible and cut off from the electricity network.

In Ticino, some 400 people — including 40 children from a holiday camp — had to be evacuated from risk areas and taken to civil protection centres.

The federal alert system also said part of the canton was without drinking water.

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis, who is from Ticino, said the repeated disasters “have touched us deeply”.

It’s the worst flooding experienced in the canton since 2000 when 13 people were killed in a mudslide which destroyed the village of Gondo.

Scientists say climate change driven by human activity is increasing the severity, frequency and length of extreme weather events such as floods and storms.

Italy flooding

In northern Italy, Piedmont and the Aosta Valley also suffered flooding and mudslides, though no deaths were reported.

Firefighters in Piedmont announced Sunday morning that they had carried out 80 operations to rescue people in difficulty.

A mudslide temporarily blocked a regional road to the ski resort of Cervinia in the Aosta Valley, a semi-autonomous region located along the border with France and Switzerland.

A river which burst its banks caused significant damage to the centre of the town where several streets were flooded.

A mudslide blocked access to Cogne, a village of 1,300 people in the Aosta Valley, where 90 millimetres of rainfall was recorded in a six-hour period on Saturday.

At the European football championships in Germany, a match between Germany and Denmark Saturday evening was interrupted for almost half an hour because of heavy rain and lighting.

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