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Who are the favourites to become the new French PM?

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne handed in her resignation on Monday, leaving many wondering who will be selected to replace her.

Published: 8 January 2024 19:24 CET
Who are the favourites to become the new French PM?
French former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (C) flanked by cabinet ministers including French Minister for the Economy and Finances Bruno Le Maire (L) and French Junior Minister for Public Accounts Gabriel Attal (top) at parliament in Paris in October 2022. (Photo by Emmanuel DUNAND / AFP)

Several names have been floating around, as political commentators in France attempt to determine who will take over as PM after Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s resignation.

While Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, the only senior minister to be in office since Macron’s election in 2017, is likely to remain in his post, four other names have been listed as favourites to replace PM Borne.

READ MORE: What does a French Prime Minister actually do?

Gabriel Attal

French Education and Youth Minister Gabriel Attal in December 2023 (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Just 34-years-old, Gabriel Attal is France’s current education minister.

In the course of his tenure – which began in July 2023 – Attal has overseen an anti-bullying campaign and the banning of abayas (a loose garment worn by some Muslim women) in French state schools.

Previously, he served as the government spokesperson from 2020 to 2022.

According to recent polling, Attal was a top choice among the French public to replace Borne as PM, with 36 percent of respondents agreeing he would “make a good prime minister”. In comparison, French President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating stood at 27 percent as of January 2024.

On Monday, a source close to the government told AFP that Attal was the favourite to succeed Borne.

If named, he would be France’s youngest ever and first openly gay prime minister.

Sébastien Lecornu

French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu in January 2024. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP)

37-year-old armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, joined Macron in 2017.

Previously, he served as France’s minister of overseas territories from 2020-2022. He is also a reservist with the rank of colonel in the Gendarmerie Nationale.

As a defector from the centre-right Republicans party, Lecornu would follow in the footsteps of two previous prime ministers — Philippe and Jean Castex — if he were to be named for the position.

Lecornu has become a close adviser to Macron, who has used his experience in local and regional government. 

Macron’s political party lacks a majority in parliament and is already riven by disagreements over the immigration law, which was greatly hardened as a condition for receiving necessary support from The Republicans.

Julien Denormandie

France’s former Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie in 2022. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Denormandie, aged 43, served as the agriculture minister from 2019 to 2022 and has been with Macron from the start of his presidential campaign. 

Denormandie almost founded a start-up with Macron in 2014 before becoming his deputy chief of staff when Macron was Economy Minister under President Francois Hollande. 

He has been working in the private sector since 2022 at a company called ‘Sweep’, a platform which seeks to reduce carbon emissions for businesses, where he holds the title of “chief impact officer”.

Catherine Colonna

France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna in Beirut in December 2023 (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

A seasoned diplomat and France’s current foreign minister, Colonna, aged 67, has been in her position since May 2022. 

Previously, she served as France’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2022. She has also been Ambassador to Italy (2014-2017), as well France’s permanent representative to the OECD and UNESCO.

Some have speculated that her tenure as foreign minister may be nearing its end – according to Ouest France (citing Politico), several appointments she had scheduled for this week have been cancelled.

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POLITICS

What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

France at last has a new government and one of its four main aims is to "control immigration and promote integration" - so what is this likely to mean for foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day?

Published: 20 September 2024 10:36 CEST
What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

After two weeks of intense negotiation, on Thursday evening newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier announced that he had succeeded in forming a government.

 He also laid out his four main priorities;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

He is set to give his Discours de politique générale on October 1st – this is the traditional speech that a prime minister makes laying out the main policy aims of their government.

So what is this likely to mean for foreigners living in France?

Obviously some of these things will have the same effect on foreigners as any other residents of France, since we all use the same healthcare and education systems.

The first challenge for the new government will be a budget that, as Barnier says, “gets public finances under control”. France is facing a ballooning deficit and the threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies if it cannot get spending under control.

Barnier said earlier in the week that he is “discovering that the country’s budgetary situation is very serious” – most people interpreted this as preparing to announce tax hikes.

No details of these plans have been released, but it is thought likely that extra taxes will be on business and the super-rich rather than any increase in income tax or VAT.

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance group briefed the press that one of their conditions for joining the new government was a pledge that any tax increases would not target “the middle classes or working French people”.

Immigration

But the strand of government that is most likely to affect foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day, is the pledge to “control immigration and promote integration”.

Again there is no detail on this, but the French government’s most recent bill to “promote integration” introduced language tests for certain types of residency card, while raising the language standard required for other processes.

We know that Barnier himself is strongly to the right on the topic of immigration – in his unsuccessful 2022 bid for the Les Républicains presidential nomination he called for a total moratorium on all immigration into France from non-EU countries.

Barnier said he would organise a referendum if elected, asking voters to approve constitutional changes and the ability of parliament to set immigrant quotas each year.

The exact composition of the new government has not been revealed – it is expected “before Sunday” – but we do know that Barnier has appointed several ministers from within the Les Républicains party.

These are reported to include Bruno Retailleau, who sparked outcry with his comments about immigrants in the context of the 2022 riots.

Speaking about the rioters who were arrested, 90 percent of whom were French citizens, he said: “OK, they’re French, but these are French people in their official identity, and unfortunately for the second and third generations (of immigrants), there is a sort of regression towards their ethnic roots.”

Clearly for some politicians, you can never be integrated enough.

New laws?

Although it’s far too early to think of any specific policies – and the government may not last long enough to actually see any laws passed – the debate around France’s recent immigration bill does provide some clues about the goals of right-wing politicians.

The Immigration law that finally passed in January changed – among other things – conditions for certain types of residency card and introduced expanded language tests, a civics test and a declaration of allegiance to ‘French values’ for foreigners living here.

READ ALSO What changes under France’s new immigration bill

However as the bill progressed through parliament, many right-wing lawmakers attempted to add amendments to toughen it up. In the end, most of the amendments were either voted down in parliament or struck out later by the Constitutional Council, but they do provide a guide to right-wing goals.

Among the rejected amendments were;

Migration quotas – the original bill contained nothing about migration quotas, but a section on this was added in the Senate (which is controlled by Les Républicains). The amendment was vague, setting out only the principle that parliament can set migration quotas – the wording of the text talked about ‘economic migration’, suggesting that these quotas would apply only to people coming to France to work, not students or retirees. The quotas would not affect asylum seekers or people arriving on a family reunification visa.

It called for parliament to have an annual debate on migration, with the ‘objective’ of setting quotas or numbers.

This was one of many amendments that was eventually struck out by the Constitutional Council – although on procedural grounds, not because of its content.

Healthcare restrictions – currently undocumented foreigners who are in France for more than three months are entitled to basic healthcare under the Aide medicale de l’Etat, with costs reimbursed by the State for hospital treatment and medication. The amendment proposed a complete ban on this for anyone who is undocumented or in an irregular immigration situation.

Benefit restrictions – currently foreigners in France can qualify for benefits such as housing allowance or certain family benefits after they have been resident for six months, the amendment aimed to increase the qualification period to five years.

Expelling radicalised foreigners – the law that was eventually passed makes it easier to expel radicalised foreigners by removing certain protections, including the restriction that people who came to France aged 13 or under cannot be expelled once they reach adulthood. The amendment aimed toughen this up still further by allowing the expulsion not just of people who are on terror watchlists, but of people who have “committed a grave and deliberate violation of the principles of the French Republic”.

Toughen asylum rules – various amendments aimed to make it easier to expel failed asylum seekers by reducing the amount of time for appeals and allowing a notice to quit the country to be served as soon as a first application is rejected.

Limit family reunification rights – rules around foreigners in France being joined by spouses or family members would also be tightened up under the amendment, with a minimum stay of 24 months before you can be joined by a spouse or family member, and extra financial requirements.

French citizenship for children born in France – currently children who are born in France to foreign parents are automatically given the right to French citizenship once they reach 18 under the droit du sol principle (although in order to do anything practical like get a passport or ID card they still need to apply for a naturalisation certificate). Several amendments proposed that this no longer be an automatic right and children must “express their will” to get citizenship – presumably through an extra admin procedures.

All the immigration measures listed above would apply to non-EU nationals – anyone who needs a visa or carte de séjour to spend more than three months in France.

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