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JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: No, France is not suffering from an unprecedented wave of violence

France's murder rate is less than half of what it was in the 1990s, so why do so many people feel that the country is getting more violent, asks John Lichfield.

OPINION: No, France is not suffering from an unprecedented wave of violence
Police officers check young men's identity in downtown Marseille, southern France. Photo by Nicolas TUCAT / AFP

Le Figaro writes: “The most recent (crime) figures (in France) indicate a society in the grip of savagery.”

Marine Le Pen states: “Immigration has exploded and savagery (ensauvagement) has increased.”

Is that really so? Facts – remember those? – suggest otherwise.

The murder rate in France is less than half of what it was 30 years ago. Crime statistics exploded in the 1970s and 1980s They fell sharply with the start of the new century and are now rising again.

Recorded crimes and offences per 1,000 people in France. Graph: observationsociete.fr

They remain far below what they were in the mid-1990s (also known as The Good Old Days).

Murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in France. Graph: observationsociete.fr

Two horrible and tragic events in recent days involving teenagers in Montpellier and in the south Paris suburbs have ignited one of France’s frequent moral panics about crime and violence.

Because both the incidents involved young French Muslims – including, in one case, Muslim girls – they have generated a festival of delighted mock-horror in French far-right social media (aka La Fachosphère) and in the columns of the once sensible, centre-right newspaper, Le Figaro.

Some members of the government, terrified of seeming weak or complacent, have also taken to using the racially-loaded terms “savagery” and “decivilisation”.

The violence in some of France’s multi-racial suburbs or banlieues is real. It should neither be accepted nor denied.

There is a new fashion for extreme violence amongst a minority of 13 to 15-year-olds. It is promoted by and then displayed on social media.

The new willingness of some teenage girls to emulate the violent behaviour long associated with teenage boys is disturbing. Gender equality has its limits.

But the claim that France is descending into an apocalyptic twilight world of migrant-driven violence is nonsense. Or rather, it is a lie calculated to stir racial prejudice and hatred. The use of the word “savage” is not accidental.

Violence exists; it has always existed. Some of the new forms of violence are disturbing. But there is no evidence for the repeated Le Figaro/Le Pen claims that France is a “society in the grip of savagery” or submerged by an unprecedented wave of migration-driven violence.

Overall crime figures have jumped in each of the last two years. The numbers are worrying but they are scarcely enormous.

The crime rate zoomed from the 1970s, undulated in the 1990s, fell sharply just after the millenium and has now started rising again. It remains well below what it was in the mid-1990s.

Violent attacks, provoked and unprovoked, including domestic violence, have risen in the last two years. Violent robberies are down. So are unarmed robberies. Sexual crimes are up by 7 percent but this may partly reflect a greater willingness to report them.

Murders have increased from 803 in 2014 to 1,033 last year. They are still way below the mid-1990s when there around 1,400 murders a year in France.

The homicide rate (murders by 100,000 population) is now 1.5, which is broadly in line with other European countries. In the 1995, it was over 3 per 100,000. You had twice as much risk of being murdered in France 30 years ago than you do now.

When did you last see a headline saying: “Good news, the French murder rate has been halved in 30 years”?

Some parts of France are more violent than others – especially the impoverished overseas départements. The Marseille area, where drug-related gang killings are rife, the homicide rate is 4.1 per 100,000.

READ ALSO Does Marseille deserve its ‘dangerous’ reputation?

(For comparison, in New Orleans, the murder rate is a staggering 53.3. Overall, the rate in the United States is four times that of France, 6.4 deaths per 100,000.)

What has also changed in the last 20 years is the willingness of politicians to exploit, and distort, crime figures and high-profile acts of violence for political gain. That began with President Jacques Chirac’s campaign for re-election in 2002, which blamed the Socialist PM Lionel Jospin for being weak on crime when crime figures were falling.

In one recent poll, 90 percent of French people said that they felt that the country was becoming more violent. Right-wing social-media silos are to blame. So is the constant drum-beat that “immigration equals violence” from Le Pen, her rival Eric Zemmour and some politicians on the centre right.

The supposedly moderate Le Figaro now gives exaggerated space on its front page or its website to any violent incident in France – especially those involving racial minorities.

Some migrants and second-generation migrants are violent or criminal but violence and criminality grows from poverty and marginalisation. The boom in violence in the 1970s and 1980s is attributed not to immigration but to the sharp rise in unemployment.

It would be idle to deny that the banlieues can be violent and sometimes scary places. They also home to hundreds of thousands of hard-working men and women who commute to menial and essential jobs in Paris and other cities every day. They, not readers of Le Figaro, tend to be the prime victims of banlieue violence, which mostly remains within the banlieues.

So let us stand Marine Le Pen’s logic on its head.

France now has more people of migrant origin than it did in 1995. Violent crimes, and especially murders, are less common than they were then.

Conclusion: migration has made France a safer and a more peaceful place.

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POLITICS

Why is France accusing Azerbaijan of stirring tensions in New Caledonia?

France's government has no doubt that Azerbaijan is stirring tensions in New Caledonia despite the vast geographical and cultural distance between the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian state and the French Pacific territory.

Why is France accusing Azerbaijan of stirring tensions in New Caledonia?

Azerbaijan vehemently rejects the accusation it bears responsibility for the riots that have led to the deaths of five people and rattled the Paris government.

But it is just the latest in a litany of tensions between Paris and Baku and not the first time France has accused Azerbaijan of being behind an alleged disinformation campaign.

The riots in New Caledonia, a French territory lying between Australia and Fiji, were sparked by moves to agree a new voting law that supporters of independence from France say discriminates against the indigenous Kanak population.

Paris points to the sudden emergence of Azerbaijani flags alongside Kanak symbols in the protests, while a group linked to the Baku authorities is openly backing separatists while condemning Paris.

“This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” interior minister Gérald Darmanin told television channel France 2 when asked if Azerbaijan, China and Russia were interfering in New Caledonia.

“I regret that some of the Caledonian pro-independence leaders have made a deal with Azerbaijan. It’s indisputable,” he alleged.

But he added: “Even if there are attempts at interference… France is sovereign on its own territory, and so much the better”.

“We completely reject the baseless accusations,” Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry spokesman Ayhan Hajizadeh said.

“We refute any connection between the leaders of the struggle for freedom in Caledonia and Azerbaijan.”

In images widely shared on social media, a reportage broadcast Wednesday on the French channel TF1 showed some pro-independence supporters wearing T-shirts adorned with the Azerbaijani flag.

Tensions between Paris and Baku have grown in the wake of the 2020 war and 2023 lightning offensive that Azerbaijan waged to regain control of its breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists.

France is a traditional ally of Christian Armenia, Azerbaijan’s neighbour and historic rival, and is also home to a large Armenian diaspora.

Darmanin said Azerbaijan – led since 2003 by President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Heydar – was a “dictatorship”.

On Wednesday, the Paris government also banned social network TikTok from operating in New Caledonia.

Tiktok, whose parent company is Chinese, has been widely used by protesters. Critics fear it is being employed to spread disinformation coming from foreign countries.

Azerbaijan invited separatists from the French territories of Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia and French Polynesia to Baku for a conference in July 2023.

The meeting saw the creation of the “Baku Initiative Group”, whose stated aim is to support “French liberation and anti-colonialist movements”.

The group published a statement this week condemning the French parliament’s proposed change to New Caledonia’s constitution, which would allow outsiders who moved to the territory at least 10 years ago the right to vote in its elections.

Pro-independence forces say that would dilute the vote of Kanaks, who make up about 40 percent of the population.

“We stand in solidarity with our Kanak friends and support their fair struggle,” the Baku Initiative Group said.

Raphael Glucksmann, the lawmaker heading the list for the French Socialists in June’s European Parliament elections, told Public Senat television that Azerbaijan had made “attempts to interfere… for months”.

He said the underlying problem behind the unrest was a domestic dispute over election reform, not agitation fomented by “foreign actors”.

But he accused Azerbaijan of “seizing on internal problems.”

A French government source, who asked not to be named, said pro-Azerbaijani social media accounts had on Wednesday posted an edited montage purporting to show two white police officers with rifles aimed at dead Kanaks.

“It’s a pretty massive campaign, with around 4,000 posts generated by (these) accounts,” the source told AFP.

“They are reusing techniques already used during a previous smear campaign called Olympia.”

In November, France had already accused actors linked to Azerbaijan of carrying out a disinformation campaign aimed at damaging its reputation over its ability to host the Olympic Games in Paris. Baku also rejected these accusations.

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