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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Who are France’s ‘ni-ni’ people?

They might sound like something out of a Monthy Python film, but the 'ni-ni's could end up determining the course of the French election.

Published: 27 June 2024 11:26 CEST
Who are France's 'ni-ni' people?
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the main parties in this French election. Photo by JEFF PACHOUD / AFP

In among the fevered speculation about France’s snap legislative elections – in which the far-right Rassemblement National is currently leading the polls – you may have heard talk of les ni-nis.

In French the word ni means neither or nor, and it is used regularly in everyday conversation – Je n’aime ni la bière ni le vin (I like neither beer, nor wine).

In a political context, it means rejection of both of the main or poll-leading parties, and it is important because of France’s two-round voting system.

Snap elections

In the current snap parliamentary elections – with polling days on June 30th and July 7th – the two groups leading the polls are Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party and the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of the four main parties of the left (the hard-left La France Insoumise, the centre-left Parti Socialiste, the Greens and the Communists).

Although the left alliance consists of four parties, it is dominated by the biggest – La France Insoumise. The party’s hard-line economic positions and recent accusations of anti-Semitism have made them unpalatable to some voters, especially those in the centre or centre-left.

All of which means, that a significant chunk of voters are saying “Ni RN, ni NFP” – neither Rassemblement National, nor Nouveau Front Populaire.

Among those seem to be at least some in Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group, the president himself describes both groups as ‘les extremes‘.

Two rounds

It’s pretty common in elections around the world to find plenty of voters who don’t like either of the main parties on offer.

What makes ‘les ni-nis‘ more significant in France is the two-round voting system – voters head to the polls once and choose from any of the array of candidates standing in their seat. The highest scorers from round one then go through to a second round, and voters go back to the polls a week later and vote on the second-round candidates.

READ ALSO How does France’s two-round voting system work?

Current polling suggests that in a significant number of constituencies, the second round will come down to a run-off between candidates from Rassemblement National and the Nouveau Front Populaire.

At which point les ni-nis will have to decide whether they truly can’t vote for either of the candidates.

They have the choice of either abstaining, casting a vote blanc (blank ballot paper) or picking the candidate they dislike the least.

What they decide could well end up determining France’s next government.

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive by email our bi-weekly election breakdown

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

French elections: What next after first round of voting?

Sunday, June 30th sees the first round of voting in France's extremely dramatic snap elections - but this is only half the story. Here's a look at what happens next.

Published: 30 June 2024 08:08 CEST
French elections: What next after first round of voting?

Two-round voting

Voters in France go to the polls twice, meaning that the voting of June 30th is only the first phase, with a second round required if no candidate polls more than 50 percent in the opening round.

In this election the first and second rounds are just one week apart – voters will return on Sunday, July 7th and make their choice between the second-round candidates. Votes are not carried forward between the rounds, meaning that July 7th is a blank slate.

While most areas will have a choice of around eight candidates in round one, only the highest scorers go through to round two.

The two highest scorers from round one go through, along with any other candidate who gets more than 12.5 percent of the total votes cast. In most areas, round two is a two-horse race, but in some places there are three-way or even four-way contests.

READ ALSO How does France’s two round voting system work?

There are also some places that don’t have a second at all – if one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes cast in round one (and if that also makes up more than 25 percent of the registered voters in that area) then they win outright and no second round is held.

This is rare but it does happen at parliamentary election level – it has never happened during a presidential election – so there will likely be a few constituencies that have no second round.

First round results 

Therefore the results of round one in most cases will tell us only who will be the candidates for each area in round two – not who has or will win.

That’s still pretty significant though, especially in these elections where it is predicted that many Macronist candidates will be knocked out in the first round.

The seats with a second-round contest between a candidate from the far-right Rassemblement National and the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire will be the ones that all eyes are upon.

France’s most experienced pollsters admit that predicting which way voters will go in a choice between an RN or NPF candidate is tough – although that doesn’t mean that many people won’t try to make that calculation over the next week.

Faire un barrage

Typically in French elections, the defeated parties will urge their supporters to vote for one side or the other in the second round.

That’s usually even more the case when a far-right candidate is still involved – parties will call on voters to Faire un barrage (make a roadblock) against the far right, or invoke Le Front républicain, the term for when parties unite across the political divide to combat the far-right.

However, having called this election as a referendum on the far-right, Emmanuel Macron and many of his ministers have spent the campaign referring to both RN and NPF as ‘les extremes‘ and saying both pose a threat to the country.

Will the Macronists take part in the Front républicain in seats where they have been defeated? Time will tell.

Voters who find the second-round choices unpalatable have the option of abstaining (which is why turnout will be carefully monitored) or casting a ‘vote blanc‘ – a blank ballot paper – to express their opposition.

Round two

Round two of voting takes place on Sunday, July 7th and – like round one – provisional results will be released at 8pm.

A party needs a minimum of 289 seats to get an overall majority in parliament – any party that gets this number will be able to put forward their candidate for prime minister. If it is either RN or NPF, that prime minister will then enter a cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron – who remains president whatever the results are.

If no-one gets 289 seats, then we’re in for messy and protracted negotiations.

The most likely scenarios are either a coalition or some kind of ‘government of national unity’ headed by figures from outside politics.

Coalition, resignation of unity government? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

Truthfully, however, no-one really knows since this has never happened since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958. We’re entering uncharted waters . . .

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