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ELECTIONS

How to follow all the latest French election news this weekend

Sunday, June 30th marks the first round of polling in the crucial French parliamentary elections, which may well trigger a political earthquake in France and across Europe. Here's how to keep up with all the latest news and analysis in English.

Published: 28 June 2024 08:54 CEST
Updated: 30 June 2024 08:08 CEST
How to follow all the latest French election news this weekend
French Prime Minister - although maybe not for much longer - Gabriel Attal during a pre-election TV debate. Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF / POOL / AFP

What’s happening?

France is holding snap parliamentary elections. Most French elections are held on a fixed cycle, but these are different – they were called by President Emmanuel Macron after his party’s humiliating losses at the European elections at the start of June.

They came as a surprise to the French, and even to some senior members of the president’s own party.

These elections are parliamentary elections – known as les législatives in French – and they determine the make-up of the French parliament and crucially the nature of the next government. The winning party gets to nominate the prime minister, but Macron will remain the president.

READ ALSO: Who is likely to be France’s new prime minister

Why are they important?

Apart from the surprise factor, these elections are attracting worldwide attention because of who might win.

Current polling shows a strong lead for the far-right Rassemblement National party led by Marine Le Pen. If the party gains an absolute majority it would be able to nominate a prime minister – giving France a far-right PM for the first time since the Vichy occupation in World War II.

What a Le Pennist PM could mean for foreigners in France

The RN party are also strongly anti-EU and even the possibility of them being in power is already provoking near-panic in Brussels.

Then there’s the fact that both they and the second-placed group (the alliance of leftist parties known as Nouveau Front Populaire) have somewhat vague economic plans, leading to turmoil on the stock markets.

When are they happening?

Like almost all French elections, these take place over two rounds – round one of voting is on Sunday, June 30th followed by round two a week later on July 7th. Preliminary results for each round will be available on Sunday evening from 8pm.

How do I follow them?

You can keep up with all the latest news at The Local – either on our website or app – at the French elections section HERE.

We will be updating the site on Sunday evening from around 8pm as the results come in, and explaining what happens next and what it all means – especially for foreigners living in France or those hoping to move here some day.

You can also listen to our weekly podcast Talking France – we will be making two election-special episodes coming out on Monday, July 1st and Monday, July 8th.

And you can sign up to receive by email or bi-weekly election briefings and all the latest election news.

If you download our app, which is available for Apple and Android phones, you can receive all the major breaking news in France and all election stories by turning on your notifications via the “User” button.

Do you have a question about the French elections you want us to try and answer? Feel free to email our team at news@thelocal.fr

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Published: 30 June 2024 22:38 CEST
Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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