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Le Pen army claim infuriates Macron camp in French election

Tensions soared between supporters of Emmanuel Macron and the French far right three days ahead of legislative elections, after its longtime leader Marine Le Pen cast doubt on the president’s ability to act as head of the armed forces.

Far-right Rassemblement National president Jordan Bardella, and France's prime minister Gabriel Attal
Far-right Rassemblement National president Jordan Bardella, and France's prime minister Gabriel Attal. (Photo by JOEL SAGET / AFP)

The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is tipped to win the election, potentially giving Le Pen’s party the post of prime minister for the first time in its history in a tense ‘cohabitation’ with Macron.

Three days before the first round of the vote on June 30th, Macron’s centrist alliance is battling to make up ground. But opinion polls suggest it will come third behind the RN and a left-wing coalition, the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP).

The RN party chief, Jordan Bardella, 28, would have a chance to lead a government as prime minister.

But he has insisted he would do so only if his party wins an absolute majority of the 577 seats in the National Assembly after the second round of voting on July 7th.

Friends and foes of Macron alike are still scratching their heads over why the president dissolved the lower house of parliament and called new elections in the aftermath of his party’s heavy defeat in this month’s EU Parliament vote.

Le Pen told the regional daily Telegramme that the president’s title as commander in chief of the armed forces was “honorific, because it’s the prime minister who holds the purse strings”.

In a televised debate, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that Le Pen had sent a “clear message” by indicating that if the RN wins the election “there will be a kind of dispute between the prime minister and president over who is commander-in-chief of the army”.

“It is a very serious message for the security of France,” he said.

But Bardella said in the debate he would “not let Russian imperialism absorb an allied state like Ukraine”.

He said he was also opposed to sending longer range missiles to Ukraine that could hit Russian territory “and place France and the French in a situation of co-belligerence”.

“My compass is the interest of France and the French,” said Bardella.

Attending a European summit in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was confident that whatever the composition of France’s next government, it would be pro-European and independent from Russian influence.

“We believe that the French will continue to support Ukraine regardless of the political situation,” Zelensky told AFP in written comments.

Macron has insisted he will serve out the remainder of his second term until it expires in 2027, no matter which party emerges on top in the coming legislative contest.

Le Pen, whom opponents have long accused of having too cosy a relationship with the Kremlin, scents that this could be her best-ever chance to win the Elysée Palace after three previous failed attempts.

When he called the snap vote after a European Parliament election drubbing by the RN on June 9th, Macron had hoped to present voters with a stark choice about whether to hand France to the far right.

An Ipsos poll published in Le Monde predicted the RN would win 36 percent of the vote, the NFP 29 percent and Macron’s alliance 19.5 percent.

“It (the RN) can not only envisage a relative majority, but we cannot exclude, far from it, an absolute majority,” Brice Teinturier, deputy director of Ipsos, told AFP.

The televised debate, where Attal and Bardella were joined by Socialist leader Olivier Faure, was equally ill-tempered as the first such session on Tuesday.

“Whenever you are in difficulty you change the subject,” Attal told Bardella. “He is tense this evening, is Mr Attal,” said Bardella.

Underscoring the stakes felt by many in France from ethnic minority backgrounds, French basketball superstar Victor Wembanyama said “for me it is important to take a distance from extremes, which are not the direction to take for a country like ours”.

Acclaimed black French filmmaker Alice Diop meanwhile told the Liberation newspaper that having the far right in government would be “not only a moral discomfort but a real fear”.

In a rare comment on domestic politics in France by its neighbour, Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it would be a “tragedy” for France’s finances if the elections returned a government that increased the country’s large debt pile.

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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