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French election breakdown: Hung parliaments and the far-right’s ‘bad apples’

From the 'bad apples' of Marine Le Pen's party to the chances of a far-right majority and why France doesn't usually have hung parliaments, here's the latest from the final day of campaigning before the decisive second round in the French snap elections.

Published: 5 July 2024 09:08 CEST

French election breakdown: Hung parliaments and the far-right's 'bad apples'

The French proverb says that it only takes one 'scabby sheep' to infect the entire flock. Photo by JEAN-PHILIPPE KSIAZEK / AFP

The final countdown

Well we’re here, heading into the final straight of what has variously been described as the most consequential French election of the Fifth Republic, a turning point for the whole of Europe, and a showdown between ‘extremes’ – suffice to say, this is a big deal.

And it’s even more weird because normally it’s French presidential elections that attract all the attention – parliamentary elections are usually regarded as secondary and only of interest to politics enthusiasts.

The reason that all of this has changed is very simple; Rassemblement National. All current polling predicts that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will become the biggest in the parliament after these elections. The only question, now, seems to be whether the party will get an absolute majority or not.

We’ve taken a look at what their policies are, who votes for them and – the question that someone always asks – can they still be described as a far-right party?

Candidate problems

The modern party certainly works hard to portray itself as reasonable and competent, but has it really changed from the days of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s leadership? The experts we spoke to reckoned that it hasn’t.

The other clue is in the party’s candidates, and specifically how many of them get caught out using racist, anti-Semitic or homophobic comments, and how many times party leader Jordan Bardella can use the phrase brebis galeuse.

This phrase (literally translating as ‘scabby sheep’) is the French equivalent of a rotten apple – or the time-honoured attempt of leaders to deny that there are institutional problems – it’s just a few bad individuals.

The below meme in the style of Who Wants to be a Millionaire asks ‘Which one of the following RN candidates have withdrawn from the election – the one who said she’s not racist because she has a Jewish ophthalmologist and a Muslim dentist; the one who is under state guardianship because of mental deficiency; the one who was convicted in 1995 of taking a hostage with a weapon; the one who was photographed wearing a Nazi hat?’.

#Elections2024 pic.twitter.com/DoGKYT1F4W

— BFMemes (@BFMemes3) July 2, 2024

These are all real candidates in these elections and the answer is D.

Racist remarks and a Nazi hat: The ‘unrepresentative’ candidates of the French far-right

Meanwhile here’s the cartoon from Libération’s Coco showing RN leader Jordan Bardella sacking all his ‘scabby sheep’ candidates and ending up with . . . no candidates.

🐑 Bardella, berger du #RN

✏️ Le dessin du jour de @cocoboer #Législatives2024 pic.twitter.com/BrnTN3fyrj

— Libération (@libe) July 5, 2024

What now?

Campaigning is officially suspended on Friday evening, with Saturday marking a ‘truce’ day when candidates are not supposed to campaign.

Then on Sunday, the French head to the polls to vote in the decisive second round, which will determine the make-up of the French parliament for (at least) the next year.

Of course the team at The Local will be bringing you all the results from the second round of voting on Sunday night – here’s how to follow the news and when we expect the results. We will also be releasing a special episode of the Talking France podcast on Monday analysing the final results.

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Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is due to submit his resignation to Macron on Monday but has also made clear he is ready to stay on in a caretaker capacity as weeks of political uncertainty loom.

The left is emerging as the biggest group in the new parliament but has yet to even agree on a figure who it would want to be the new prime minister.

The unprecedented situation is taking shape just as Macron is due to be out of the country for most of the week, taking part in the NATO summit in Washington.

“Is this the biggest crisis of the Fifth Republic [ie since 1958]?” asked Gael Sliman, president of the Odoxa polling group.

“Emmanuel Macron wanted clarification with the dissolution, now we are in total uncertainty. A very thick fog.”

After winning the June 30th first round by a clear margin, the results were a major disappointment for the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen, even if her forces are set to boast about their biggest ever contingent in parliament.

Macron’s centrist alliance will have dozens fewer members of parliament, but held up better than expected and could even end in second.

The left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) — formed last month after Macron called snap elections — brought together the centre-left Parti Socialiste, Greens, Communists and the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) in one camp.

Projections by major polling agencies showed the NFP set to be the largest bloc in the new National Assembly with 177 to 198 seats, Macron’s alliance on 152 to 169 seats and the RN on 135 to 145 seats. Final results are expected later on Monday.

That would put no group near the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority and it remains unclear how a new government could be formed.

Macron, who has yet to speak in public about the projections, is calling for “prudence and analysis of the results”, said an aide, asking not to be named.

LFI lawmaker Clementine Autain called on the NFP alliance to gather on Monday to decide on a suitable candidate for prime minister.

In key individual battles, Le Pen’s sister Marie-Caroline narrowly lost out on being a lawmaker, but former president François Hollande will return to frontline politics as a Socialist member of parliament.

Firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of LFI and the controversial figurehead of the NFP coalition, demanded that the left be allowed to form a government.

Only one week ago, some polls had indicated the RN could win an absolute majority with Le Pen’s 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister.

Instead, he expressed fury.

Bardella dubbed the local electoral pacts that saw the left and centrists avoid splitting the anti-RN vote as an “alliance of dishonour”.

He said it had thrown “France into the arms of Jean-Luc Melenchon’s extreme left”.

Le Pen, who wants to launch a fourth bid for the presidency in 2027, declared: “The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed.”

The first round saw more than 200 tactical-voting pacts between centre and left-wing candidates in seats to attempt to prevent the RN winning an absolute majority.

This has been hailed as a return of the anti-far right “Republican Front” first summoned when Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie faced Jacques Chirac in the run-off of 2002 presidential elections.

The question for France now is if this alliance of last resort can support a stable government, dogged by a still substantial RN bloc in parliament led by Le Pen herself as she prepares a 2027 presidential bid.

Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said there was “no obvious governing majority” in the new parliament.

“It may take many weeks to resolve the muddle while the present government manages current business.”

Follow all the latest election news from France HERE