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ELECTIONS

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?

All eyes were supposed to be on Paris this summer as the French capital lays on the sporting extravaganza of the Olympics - but will attention instead be fixed on the chaotic political situation and possible unrest on the streets?

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?
A demonstrator holds a flare during a rally against far-right after the announcement of the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Geoffroy VAN DER HASSELT / AFP)

One of French president Emmanuel Macron’s stated aims in calling a snap parliamentary election – three years earlier than scheduled – was to provide some political clarity.

To say that this failed would be a considerable understatement.

While the electorate did issue a firm rejection of the far-right Rassemblement National, the parliament is now hopelessly divided with no party even close to a majority and the country entering a period of political chaos and uncertainty unsurpassed since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

As the political wrangling continues, there are calls for French people to take to the streets over what is seen as a “denial of democracy”.

So what happens now? 

Current government 

For the moment, France does still have a government in place. President Emmanuel Macron remains in post – as he was always going to since in France the president is elected separately to the parliament.

Prime minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation to Macron the day after the elections but Macron asked him to stay on until a new government could be created. So he remains in post, and all the ministers remain in post – and therefore could take decisions in case of emergency.

This is, however, only a temporary solution and a new government will need to be created sooner or later.

The new government 

Forming a new government, however, is likely to be very complicated indeed, due to the fact that no party or group won an overall majority at the elections and in fact the parliament is now split into three mutually detesting groups – the far-right, the centrists and the left alliance.

Graphic showing the make-up of the French parliament after the 2024 legislative elections. Graphic: AFP

In order to create a government, either the centre or the left will need to find new allies to take them up to the magic number of 289 – the number of seats required for a majority. At present the left alliance has 193 seats and the centrists 164, so either of them would need to find a significant number of new allies.

Adding to the complication is that many of these groups loathe each other, and France has no tradition of coalition governments so this is uncharted waters for everybody.

Negotiations may be lengthy.

The role of Macron 

In France a prime minister is not directly elected, it is the president who appoints the prime minister – if the president’s party has a majority then this is essentially a personal choice for the president.

If the president’s party doesn’t have a majority, then the largest group can nominate a prime minister, although it still reliant on the president accepting their candidate.

Technically Macron can appoint anyone he likes as PM – but the prime minister can be deposed if a majority of MPs in parliament support a no-confidence vote (motion de censure). There is therefore little point in Macron picking someone who will immediately be voted out by MPs.

Unrest on the streets

But not everyone is content to wait while negotiations continue behind the scenes – especially the voters of the left who feel that any attempt to install a non-leftist PM would be a denial of democracy since they did, after all, finish the election as the largest group.

Adrien Quatennens, formerly an MP for the far left La France Insoumise until he was forced to stand down after a conviction for domestic assault, called for a “march on Matignon” – the residence of the prime minister.

This is not the official position of the party, however, LFI leader Manuel Bompard told LCI radio: “What Adrien Quatennens is saying, and I agree with him, is that the President gives the impression that he is looking for every way to ignore the results of the elections . .  Yes, there must be the conditions for a popular mobilisation to say: ‘No, Mr President, you must respect the results of the legislative elections’.”

However, he added: “If it reassures you, La France Insoumise is not calling for a march on Matignon”.

The far-right have slammed Quatennens’ call as “a Washington Capitol moment” – referring to the January 6th attack on the US Capitol building by supporters of defeated president Donald Trump.

However a prolonged period of political deadlock could lead to street protests or demos in the weeks to come – albeit more likely to be formally organised marches.

But doesn’t France usually shut down over the summer?

It’s true that the political world usually takes a break over the summer with parliament in recess and politicians retreating to the seaside or the country for a little downtime.

Parliamentary rules mean that parliament must sit for at least 15 days after being recalled – or up until August 2nd – but it’s not clear whether or not that session will be extended.

It’s possible that a deal could be agreed to install a caretaker prime minister over the summer, and then make a final decision on groups and a PM when parliament restarts in September.

This would have the added bonus of providing some political stability over the summer as Paris hosts the Olympics.

Paris’ socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo is in favour of this option, saying that she wants the Attal government to remain to “manage day-to-day business” during the Games.

As for interior minister Gérald Darmanin, he “did a very good job on the Games”, she told France Inter.

Will all this affect the Olympics?

On a practical level probably not, the election took place just three weeks before the start of the Olympics, by which time planning for the event was largely complete.

The government doesn’t get directly involved in organising the Games – that is done by the Paris organising committee, the International Olympic Committee and Paris city hall – although ministers have been involved in issues like security and policing for the event.

Government-level decisions such as legal dispensation to allow face-recognition software were taken long in advance and now the day-to-day organisation of each event is in the hands of the organisers.

The Prime Minister was never scheduled to play an official role in the Games, representing France will be Anne Hidalgo as mayor of host city Paris – and president Emmanuel Macron.

The political chaos is, however, likely to steal focus from the Games and is certainly not the image that France was hoping to project to the world.

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POLITICS

What’s going on with France’s government now the Olympics are over?

The country appeared to declare a national truce in the political wrangling in order to enjoy the Olympics - but now the Games are over, what happens next in the ongoing saga of the French government?

What's going on with France's government now the Olympics are over?

For the last three weeks France – and much of the world – has been busy being enthralled by the Paris Olympics. From the beautiful venues to the astonishing sporting feats and the general sense of joie de vivre, it was a very happy period.

But now the Olympics are over (although the Paralympics start in two weeks) and France must again face its lack of a government.

What happened again?

In case a newly-acquired knowledge of the rules of competition skateboarding has caused you to forget, here’s a brief recap of where we were politically when the Games began at the end of July.

A parliamentary election, hastily called by Emmanuel Macron, resulted in an inconclusive result in which no party or group won a majority in the Assemblée nationale in the second round of voting on July 7th.

Instead three blocks emerged – the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left alliance with 193, centrists including Macron’s party on 164 and the far-right Rassemblement National on 143. No party came even close to the 289 seats required for a majority. 

Things drifted for a while as it became obvious that not only did no party have a majority, but no-one had any immediate prospects of forming an alliance or coalition that would take them to the magic 289 seats.

On July 17th, Macron formally accepted the resignation of prime minister Gabriel Attal and his government, but asked them all to stay on in ‘caretaker’ roles until a new government could be created.

The caretaker government has been in power ever since – it can take decisions in case of emergency or urgent need, but has severely limited powers.

READ ALSO How does France’s caretaker government work?

Then what happened?

The Olympics started. Although no-one actually agreed to a political ‘truce’ the French public and French media seemed very happy to be distracted from this ongoing mess and instead focus on sport.

It helped that the Paris Olympics were a big success – the city looked gorgeous, French athletes won plenty and the whole country was in an unusually good mood.

But the politicians were still working behind the scenes, right?

There doesn’t seem to be much evidence of this. Most of the cabinet immediately decamped to the Games and were pictured cheering on French athletes and generally having fun.

Macron himself appears to have loved the Games – he attended multiple events, embraced French athletes and the closest he appears to have got to politics was attending the France-USA basketball final with the American ‘second gentleman’ Doug Emhoff. 

Meanwhile other ministers decamped to the seaside or the country for their traditional summer holidays.

The politicians of the leftist NFP continued to bang the drum for a new government, especially their eventual pick for prime minister Lucie Castets, who has been touring France introducing herself to the people and generally giving the vibe of a politician on the campaign trail.

So what now?

The Olympics are over and the Paralympics, while likely to be a fantastic sporting spectacle, probably won’t be accepted as an excuse to continue the drift.

On Tuesday, Attal proposed to the various parties of the French parliament that they ‘build a legislative compromise’ with a left-to-right spectrum of parties, but excluding the far-right Rassemblement National and the far-left La France Insoumise.

This is basically what the Macronists were proposing before the Olympics, and it remains to be seen whether they will find enough (or any) parties willing to agree to join, and who could be acceptable to all parties as a candidate for prime minister. Meanwhile the NFP continues to insist that as the largest group it has the right to nominate a prime minister, the aforementioned Castets.

Basically, nothing has changed.

So who’s in charge?

Macron remains president, with the wide-ranging powers afforded to him by the French constitution, but when it comes to government it’s still in caretaker mode, with Attal as a caretaker PM with limited powers.

How will this go on for?

Who can say? The Constitution does not provide any kind of limit for how long a caretaker government can remain in place, nor does Macron have a constitutional deadline by which to name a prime minister.

August is generally a pretty sleepy time in France so it’s possible or even likely that this could drag on until September.

Eventually patience will start to run out, with an increasingly widespread perception that Macron is simply seizing on the complicated situation and constitutional uncertainty in order to expand his own power.

One thing we do know – parliamentary elections are limited to once every 12 months, so there cannot be another one until June 2025.

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