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GERMANY AND RUSSIA

Convicted hitman freed from Germany in Russian prisoner swap

Vadim Krasikov, one of the Russian nationals exchanged in a prisoner swap announced between Moscow and the West on Thursday, had been serving a life sentence in Germany for murder.

A general view taken on October 7, 2020 in Berlin shows the courtroom at the beginning of the trial of Vadim Krasikov, accused of gunning down a former Chechen commander in Berlin
A general view taken on October 7, 2020 in Berlin shows the courtroom at the beginning of the trial of Vadim Krasikov, accused of gunning down a former Chechen commander in Berlin in 2019. Krasikov has been released as part of a prisoner swap between Russia and the West. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / various sources / AFP)

Krasikov, alias Vadim Sokolov, was found guilty of gunning down former Chechen separatist commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in broad daylight in a Berlin park in 2019.

The case sparked a major rift between Germany and Russia, with tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions.

Krasikov stayed silent during his trial, speaking only through his lawyer, and has remained surrounded by mystery right up until the exchange came to light.

Through his laywer, Krasikov claimed he had been misidentified and was really a Russian construction engineer named Vadim Sokolov, but a Berlin court found him guilty of murder in December 2021.

According to German prosecutors, Krasikov approached the Georgian national from behind on a bicycle, firing two shots from a Glock 26 pistol equipped with a silencer.

After the victim fell to the ground, Krasikov allegedly shot him in the head, killing him on the spot, before getting back on his bicycle and fleeing.

Police divers later recovered the handgun, a wig and a bicycle from the nearby Spree river.

Berlin judges said the killing had been ordered by Moscow, but the Kremlin at the time slammed what it called a “political” ruling.

Mirror murder

Krasikov was born in 1965 in what is now Kazakhstan, then part of the Soviet Union, according to the Bellingcat investigative website.

In June 2013, Krasikov was the prime suspect in the murder of a Russian businessman who had been the subject of several previous assassination attempts, the website said.

The crime in Moscow was reportedly similar in many ways to the Berlin murder –- in both cases, the killer had approached his target on a bicycle, shot him in the back and in the head, and left on his bike.

Krasikov is likely to have been a member of an elite unit of the FSB, Russia’s state security service, according to Bellingcat.

President Vladimir Putin first hinted that he wanted Krasikov as part of a potential prisoner swap during an interview with US journalist Tucker Carlson in February.

Without mentioning him by name, Putin referred to Krasikov in the context of negotiations over a deal to free jailed US journalist Evan Gershkovich — one of the prisoners released in Thursday’s exchange.

Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, was sentenced in July to 16 years for spying in a case rejected as a “sham” by the White House.

“There is a person serving a sentence in a US ally. That person, out of patriotic sentiments, eliminated a bandit in a European capital,” Putin said.

Asked after Putin’s TV interview whether Krasikov was an agent for the FSB, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “I will leave that question without an answer.”

Navalny plan?

Krasikov’s name had also previously come up in other potential prisoner swaps involving high-profile figures, including the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Shortly after Navalny’s death, his ally Maria Pevchikh said Putin “was offered to exchange… Krasikov” for Navalny and two US citizens.

According to US media reports, Krasikov was also named during efforts to negotiate the freedom of Paul Whelan, a former Marine also among Thursday’s crop of freed prisoners.

Prosecutors in Berlin said Krasikov travelled as a tourist in the days before the murder, arriving in Paris where he visited sights before travelling to Warsaw.

Commenting on Khangoshvili’s murder, Putin described the former Chechen commander as a “fighter, very cruel and bloody” who had joined separatists against Russian forces in the Caucasus and also been involved in bombing attacks on the Moscow metro.

According to German media, Khangoshvili had survived two previous assassination attempts in Georgia before seeking asylum in Germany.

He had been living in Germany for several years and also went by the name Tornike Kavtarashvili.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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