German consumer confidence to worsen in September

German consumers are feeling more pessimistic heading into September, a key survey showed Tuesday, as concerns about jobs and wages add to a gloomy outlook for Europe's largest economy.

Published: 27 August 2024 08:25 CEST

A man checks his wallet to find it is nearly empty. Consumer confidence is down in Germany leading into September. Photo: picture-alliance/ dpa | Patrick Lux

The survey of around 2,000 people showed that consumer morale “suffered a severe setback” compared to a month earlier, according to pollsters GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM).

The forward-looking indicator fell by 3.4 points to minus 22 points for September, they said in a statement.

The “euphoria” triggered by the European football championship hosted by Germany in July “dissipated after the tournament ended”, said NIM consumer expert Rolf Buerkl.

“Slightly rising unemployment figures, an increase in corporate insolvencies, and downsizing plans by various companies in Germany are causing a number of employees to worry more about their jobs,” he said.

“Hopes for a stable and sustainable economic recovery must therefore be further postponed.”

The survey found that respondents were “noticeably” more downbeat about their wage prospects for the coming 12 months, and less likely than a month ago to make large purchases.

Consumers’ assessment of Germany’s economic outlook also worsened, erasing last month’s gains.

The darker mood comes after preliminary data showed that the German economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter, weighed down by cooling exports and an ongoing industrial slump.

Another closely watched survey, by the Ifo institute, showed on Monday that German business morale deteriorated further in August, particularly among companies in the manufacturing sector.

The German government expects the country’s economy to expand by 0.3 percent in 2024, lagging behind the wider eurozone which the European Union predicts will grow by 0.8 percent.

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Intel’s delay

The US chip giant announced Monday it is postponing plans for its project in Germany for two years as it focuses more on the United States.

This is a blow to Berlin, which had pledged 10 billion euros ($11 billion) – a third of the cost – to build the production plant in the eastern city of Magdeburg.

While Intel’s own struggles are the immediate cause for the delay, it has also fuelled concerns that Germany is becoming less attractive as a place to do business.

In this year’s ranking of the most competitive economies by Swiss business school IMD, Germany slipped two spots to 24th, with taxes, bureaucracy and poor infrastructure cited as major handicaps.

Volkswagen stalls

Auto titan Volkswagen announced earlier this month it could take the unprecedented step of closing factories in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history.

Europe’s biggest carmaker is struggling with high costs, problems in the transition to electric vehicles, and fierce competition from local rivals in key market China.

Employees of German car maker Volkswagen (VW) protest at the start of a company’s general meeting in Wolfsburg, northern Germany, on September 4, 2024. Photo by Moritz Frankenberg / POOL / AFP

A week after VW’s shock announcement, BMW announced it was recalling 1.5 million vehicles due to problems with their brakes and downgraded its outlook for the year, also citing problems in China.

Steel storm

Efforts by Thyssenkrupp to spin off its loss-making steel division and get its business back on track ran into trouble last month when a host of senior executives quit in protest at the what they said was the unacceptable behaviour of the group’s CEO.

The row centres around plans to restructure the division, which operates Europe’s largest steelworks in Duisburg, western Germany.

The conglomerate wants to separate the steelmaking unit from its other activities, which include building submarines, as it faces higher manufacturing costs and competition from cheaper Asian steel.

It already announced that it plans to cut jobs in Duisburg and reduce production.

Firms face being gobbled up

Deutsche Bahn announced last week that logistics unit Schenker, traditionally one of its most profitable arms, is to be sold to Danish group DSV, with unions fearful it could lead to thousands of job losses in Germany.

Meanwhile Italian bank UniCredit is targeting a takeover of Commerzbank after building up a nine-percent stake in Germany’s second-biggest lender, a development that reportedly blindsided Berlin and has angered German unions.

Still some say such takeovers also highlight that German firms remain attractive, despite the woes of the broader economy.

Poor indicators

After starting the year on a positive note, recent surveys – from business morale to consumer confidence – have been on a downward trend, denting hopes of a strong rebound.

Some economic institutes have cut their forecasts, and now expect either stagnation or a slight recession for the whole year.

In its last official forecast in April, the economy ministry still expected growth of 0.3 percent this year, but it may downgrade that forecast when it updates the figure soon.

Commenting after a recent batch of negative data, ING economist Carsten Brzeski summed up Germany’s problems: “Years of stagnation, and underestimating technological trends and international competition do not come without consequences.”

By Sophie MAKRIS