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Why support for the far-right AfD is set to surge in eastern Germany

Voters in two former East German states will go to the polls on Sunday in what could be a rough night for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, with the far-right AfD expected to make big gains.

Published: 28 August 2024 09:28 CEST

A car drives past a billboard displaying an election campaign poster for Alternative for Germany (AfD) with the lettering 'The east is doing it - class in German' in Altenburg, eastern Germany on August 20th. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony come just a week after three people were stabbed to death in the western city of Solingen, allegedly by a Syrian asylum seeker, in an attack that has shocked Germany and fuelled a bitter debate about immigration.

Opinion polls have the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the biggest party in Thuringia on around 30 percent, while in Saxony it is running neck-and-neck for first place with the conservative CDU.

The AfD is unlikely to come to power in either state, even if it wins, as other parties have ruled out collaborating with it to form a majority.

But the result would still be a humiliating slapdown for Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the other parties in his governing coalition, the Greens and the liberal FDP, as they look ahead to Germany’s national election next year.

In both states, Scholz’s SPD is polling at around six percent.

A third former East German state, Brandenburg, is also due to hold an election later in September, with the AfD also leading there on around 24 percent.

The picture in each state is slightly different but “in any case, it is clear that the AfD will unite a very strong number of votes behind it”, Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), told AFP.

Besides causing a headache for Scholz’s coalition, the election could also have international implications if it gives a boost to parties that oppose continued support for Ukraine.

‘Dissatisfied protest voters’

Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has enjoyed a resurgence over the past 12 months as Germany struggles with a rise in migration and a stumbling economy.

The AfD has also capitalised on dissatisfaction with the three-way coalition government in Berlin that has been plagued by disagreements and stalemate, most recently a protracted dispute over the 2025 budget.

In June’s EU Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.

Björn Höcke, leader and top candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia, signs his autograph on a large German national flag belonging to supporters after addressing an election campaign event in Apolda, eastern Germany on August 18, 2024. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP

The AfD has also notched up several local successes including its first city mayor, but a victory in Thuringia or Saxony on Sunday would be the first time it has won a state election.

The AfD is especially strong in the former communist East Germany partly “because it has a core of voters there who can identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions”, according to Kneuer.

But the party’s popularity there can also be put down to “a large proportion of dissatisfied protest voters who turn to the AFD because they don’t want to vote for any other party”, she said.

Saxony is the most populous former East German state, with around four million inhabitants and several large cities including Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz.

Thuringia, which has a population of around two million and whose biggest city is Erfurt, is the only state to currently have a leader, Bodo Ramelow, from the far-left Die Linke party.

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‘The right party’

After struggling economically for years after reunification, eastern Germany has recently seen higher growth than western Germany and wage increases have also been higher.

But “despite these positive economic developments, differences and injustices persist (between east and west)”, according to Carsten Schneider, the government’s commissioner for East German affairs.

Stefan Angelov, 35, a security guard from Jena, the second-largest city in Thuringia, said the AfD was “the right party” to vote for, “especially after the attack in Solingen”.

“Open borders, anyone can come in… with who-knows-what in their hands,” said Angelov, who is originally from Bulgaria but has been living in Jena for 10 years.

BSW, a new party formed by popular left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she defected from the Die Linke, is also polling well in all three states.

BSW has enjoyed a swell of support for its stance against weapons deliveries to Ukraine and won six percent in June’s EU elections.

“It is possible that BSW could become an important factor in forming a coalition in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony,” Kneuer said.

By Femke COLBORNE

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Debt, migration and the far-right: The big challenges facing Germany this autumn

The never-ending budget talks

After the coalition somehow managed to piece together a sort-of budget agreement for 2025 at the beginning of summer, many thought (and hoped) the worst of negotiations were behind us.

But no, this is Germany. And that means that nothing is ever quite that simple, especially when it comes to spending and saving.

Cracks have emerged in the financing behind the plans, which include funding greater security and societal cohesion, tax relief for residents and businesses, family support, ambitious climate action and accelerated economic growth.

After last year’s catastrophic constitutional court ruling that threw Germany’s spending plans into disarray resulting in a €60 billion shortfall, the government is keen to avoid any other potential budget disasters.

But things are still shaky.

The coalition, dubbed the ‘traffic light’ thanks to the party colours of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), plans to spend almost €490 billion next year. More than a tenth of that amount – €51.3 billion – will be on credit. They also plan a record investment of €81 billion.

This is all set to happen even though the infamous debt-brake (Schuldenbremse) – a self-imposed cap on annual borrowing at 0.35 percent of the GDP – is back in force. However, the coalition says the proposals comply with the debt brake, which allows new debt to a limited extent in the event of a struggling economy.

Nevertheless, there are doubts as to whether the draft budget is constitutional. The opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), which won the challenge at the constitutional court on spending last year, is talking about the possibility of fresh legal action.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FPD) appeared in the Bundestag this week to defend his plans – and admitted that things were not rosy.

There is still a financial gap of €12 billion, which the government had not been able to reduce as much as it had planned “despite all our efforts”, admitted Lindner.

Why should all of this matter to residents? Because there will likely be more cuts in the pipeline that will affect services and leave people with less money in their pocket.

Expect a rocky few weeks and months ahead.

A person holds cash in hand. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Jan Woitas

Who should be allowed to enter Germany?

It’s been a rough summer for the government. As well as the budget difficulties, another topic at the top of the news agenda is migration policy.

The government has already been facing mounting pressure to limit the number of migrants arriving in Germany and crack down on extremists after a number of suspected Islamist attacks in recent months.

Things reached boiling point in August when three people were killed in a knife attack in the western city of Solingen, in which the Syrian suspect was meant to have been deported but escaped law enforcement.

As well as tightening the law around carrying knives, Germany also drew up tougher rules for illegal migrants, such as refusing benefits payments.

The government has also vowed to step up deportations of asylum seekers convicted of crimes. Germany returned 28 Afghans late last month for the first time since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.

This week the German government also said temporary controls will be extended to the internal borders with all nine of its EU neighbours for six months – a move that has seen pushback from the EU and Poland.

Despite this, the government is still facing strong criticism from opposition parties, who have been calling for more action to curb irregular migration. This refers to people trying to enter Germany without going through the usual channels like with a visa.

In an unusual move, Christian Democrat (CDU) leader Christian Merz last month offered to work with Chancellor Olaf Scholz away from his government partners. Merz put forward his own agenda, which included proposing a “national emergency” that could potentially override EU law, and ensure that migrants who have first travelled to another EU country are turned back at the German borders.

A cross-party migration summit started this week, but Merz maintained that “it will only work if we really push back on a large scale”.

During the general debate in the Bundestag on Wednesday, the CSU’s Alexander Dobrint was keen to stress the failures of the SPD-led coalition when it comes to migration issues – but he did fail to mention that significantly more migrants arrived in Germany under Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU-led government.

Scholz barked back at the conservatives during the debate, accusing them of “talking in slogans” but “not getting anything done”.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the general debate on September 11th.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the general debate on September 11th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld

The chancellor also defended his government’s migration policy and emphasised the need for immigration to Germany. ‘”There is no country in the world with a shrinking labour force that has economic growth,” he said.

“That is the truth that we are confronted with,” he added, while also emphasising the need for management and control.

With migration at the top of German voters’ minds, this issue will continue to plague the government.

How will the government handle AfD gains at state elections?

That brings us to the rise of the far-right. Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the most votes in a recent state election in Thuringia, and came a close second (behind the CDU) in Saxony.

Meanwhile, the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new party to the state ballots, had the third biggest share of votes in both states.

With state elections coming up in Brandenburg on September 22nd – and with the AfD riding high in the polls there – the outlook is bleak for mainstream parties, who have all vowed not to work with the AfD in government and are grappling with how to deal with the BSW, given its populist and often pro-Russian policies.

For the coalition, things are even worse. Much like in the European elections back in June, the governing parties performed terribly, with the FDP and Greens even missing the five percent threshold to make it into parliament.

Voters are making their intentions clear: they are angry at the current situation. The question is: will these elections be a wake up call for the government parties ahead of the nationwide election in 2025?

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