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‘Proud of our tradition’: Coal phase-out fuels far right in rural eastern Germany

Germany is phasing out coal as part of climate protection targets. But in rural Brandenburg, which has elections this week, the change heavily affects communities - and is resulting in growing support for the far-right AfD.

Published: 17 September 2024 09:11 CEST

A woman walks along the high street in Spremberg. White clouds still billow from the towers of a coal plant in Spremberg but the coal phase out is underway. Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP

White clouds still billow from the cooling towers of a coal plant near Spremberg in Germany’s ex-communist east but the end is in sight as Berlin phases out the dirty fossil fuel.

Thousands of jobs have already been lost in the region, where wind farms now rise near abandoned open-pit mines and many people look with dread towards 2038, the deadline for the “coal exit”.

Their fears help explain the strong local support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which does not just rail against migrants but also rejects the green energy push and questions man-made climate change.

At local elections held in Spremberg in June, the AfD scored 39.3 percent – an omen ahead of regional elections next Sunday in the state of Brandenburg, which polls suggest it could win.

Lignite, or brown coal, may be a climate killer, but since the 19th century it has been key to the identity of the Lusatia industrial region on the Polish border, known as the Lausitz in German.

“Thousands of people here have been linked to coal their whole working lives,” said the town’s mayor, Christine Herntier, an independent who has held the post for a decade.

“We are proud of our tradition,” said Herntier, 67, pointing to a huge map on her office wall of the Schwarze Pumpe plant and its surrounding industrial complex.

Most people in Spremberg, population 25,000, have grudgingly accepted the coal phase-out plan, under which the government has earmarked billions for structural transition plans, she said.

But, she added, ahead of the state election the winding down of coal “is still a big issue”.

‘Anger over wind farm’

Michael Hanko, the AfD’s top representative in Spremberg, said he is certain that the looming demise of the lignite industry is “one of the main reasons” residents are voting for his party.

“I don’t think the government has really got them on board with this whole prescribed transformation, saying that we now have to do everything with renewable energies,” Hanko said.

Michael Hanko, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) top candidate, in Spremberg, eastern Germany on, September 9, 2024. Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP

The AfD, founded about a decade ago, scored a triumph earlier this month when it won an election in the eastern state of Thuringia and came a close second in Saxony.

It now also has a good chance of winning in Brandenburg, the state that surrounds Berlin, where it is polling narrowly in first place at around 27 percent.

When the German government decided five years ago to phase out coal, it pledged around €40 billion to help coal regions adapt, with €17 billion for the Lausitz alone.

Much of the money is intended to flow into developing the renewables and hydrogen sectors, helping the region maintain its identity as an energy hub.

But residents complain the investment has been too slow to materialise and is flowing into the wrong places.

In Spremberg, plans to extend a nearby wind park have caused outrage among some locals, who fear it will be a threat to 150-year-old trees, a protected swallow species and drinking water.

‘Something different’

Coal has long been synonymous with the Lausitz region, which takes in parts of Brandenburg and Saxony and a small strip of Poland, and where lignite was discovered in the late 18th century.

But the industry all but collapsed after German reunification in 1990, when most of the region’s open pit mines were shut down and thousands of jobs vanished.

Today, only around 8,000 people are employed in the lignite industry across the Lausitz, with 4,500 of them in Brandenburg, though the industry is still one of the largest private employers in the state and coal remains a strong part of the region’s identity.

Already weary from the problems caused by reunification, people in the region have felt “overwhelmed” by recent global challenges, said Lars Katzmarek, a board member of the Pro-Lausitz campaign group.

Lars Katzmarek, board member of the Pro-Lausitz campaign group. Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP

“The coronavirus, the energy crisis, the Ukraine war – these are all very difficult things that people still haven’t fully digested… and perhaps at some point they just close their ears,” he said.

On a rainy morning in Spremberg, Joachim Paschke, 81, who used to work in mechanical engineering and welding, was buying bread rolls in the bakery opposite the town hall.

“I’m definitely not an AfD supporter but I can understand people who are,” he said.

“The established parties have nothing concrete and the AfD is offering something different. People want change.”

By Femke COLBORNE

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ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level.

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government.

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

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