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POLITICS

A crisis of presidential proportions

Knowing Horst Köhler served Germany more as an administrator than a visionary tempers any sorrow over his surprise resignation, writes Der Tagesspiegel Editor-in-Chief Stephan-Andreas Casdorff.

A crisis of presidential proportions
Photo: DPA

And so, a great misunderstanding ends in catastrophe. Germany’s president has resigned, suddenly, with immediate effect, as if he’s throwing in the towel. This ensures Horst Köhler his place in the history books, although it’s certainly not how he intended to become unique in the annals of the Federal Republic.

His actions cannot be explained by thin skin and pride alone. What might appear to have been a spontaneous decision, one made in the heat of the moment, is actually totally logical. It comes from the complete estrangement of this president from large swathes of the so-called political elite – which he always almost coquettishly refused to join.

Also because, having never previously held an elected office, he always served the body politic as a civil servant. As an administrator. He did not have, at times spectacularly, the instincts for knowing the right time to intervene in the national discourse. Imagine if this president had been forced to make one important existential decision. Doing so qualifies any sorrow – if there is any – over his resignation.

What someone in the mould of the Richard von Weizsäcker would know in their sleep, Köhler could and did not want to understand. Moreover he still is unable to make a rousing speech even six years after taking office. That a great majority of the public likes him is thanks to the fact that he, more than anyone else, tried to get close to the people. He reduced the distance between the people and the head of state. But this had the side-effect that with his words and actions he also commanded less respect. What he said was often banal, or too late, or excessive – or simply wrong.

Choosing Köhler back in 2004 despite all doubts appeared to be a sovereign and clever masterpiece by the Christian Democrats and Free Democrats. Today it simply shows the lack of competence Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition has in making appointments for sake of the office and not just for tactical advantage. This misunderstanding was continued with Köhlers re-election last year, which was supposed to be a demonstration of power and unity.

That said, after that first period in office, the centre-right allies already knew better but they obviously thought it was not so important. That was another poor estimation – especially since the highest political office in the land is important – as important as the president is considered to be. And it becomes even more important when the government exhibits leadership weaknesses that cannot be ignored. The lack of respect was mutual.

Germany is currently experiencing four unprecedented challenges. First: Never has a federal government gotten off to a worse start and yet also failed to improve over the months. The country is being governed into irrelevancy.

Second: Never have Germany and its chancellor been more isolated and poorly regarded in Europe. This is particularly true in France, the other half of the European engine.

Third: Never has a foreign minister and vice chancellor been less influential or so unpopular.

And now the fourth exceptional challenge is plopped upon the country following the president’s resignation. Germany looks destabilised – and of all times during the greatest crisis of the last 60 years. This may not yet be discernable everywhere, but it will become very real after the government presents its grim budget.

The crisis, everyone is hoping, will bring forth a saviour. But the government must look hard to find one. It must this time make a wise, not petty-minded decision that is not oriented around the political balance of power in order to minimise damage to the nation. That is the priority now. The politicians must now look for a non-partisan presidential candidate, male or female, who will be supported by broad majority of population. Someone who can begin repairing Germany’s image in Europe and the wider world.

Lena, Germany’s Eurovision song contest winner, isn’t going to be enough.

This commentary was published with the kind permission of Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel, where it originally appeared in German. Translation by The Local.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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