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ECONOMY

Merkel ups heat on Greece, rebuffs Brussels

German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up the pressure on Greece on Wednesday to commit to reforms, and held to her tough stance against European Commission proposals to introduce eurobonds.

Merkel ups heat on Greece, rebuffs Brussels
Photo: DPA

In a wide-ranging speech in the Bundestag lower house of parliament, Merkel said: “The Greek question has still not been cleared up because we have not seen the criteria met for the payment of the next tranche” of bailout loans.

Greece needs an €8-billion ($11-billion) pay-out by December 15 to avoid bankruptcy but the conservative group in the three-party unity government has refused to sign a reform pledge the EU says is needed for the funds.

“We need not only the signature of the Greek prime minister, but also the signatures of the parties that have formed a government in Greece, otherwise there can be no payment of the next tranche,” said the chancellor.

And Merkel persisted with her firm veto on allowing the ECB to step up its purchase of the bonds of distressed eurozone nations, insisting on the independence of the central bank and its sole mandate – to fight inflation.

“The economic and monetary union is based on a central bank which has as its sole responsibility the maintaining of price stability,” stressed Merkel. “That is its mandate, it is carrying it out … and I am firmly of the opinion that this mandate should not, absolutely not, be changed,” added the chancellor to loud applause.

Merkel also took aim at the European Commission, which is preparing to launch proposals for eurobonds, which many believe could be an effective response to the eurozone debt crisis.

She said she found it “extremely worrying” and “inappropriate” that Brussels was publishing its eurobond proposal as if what she called the weaknesses of the eurozone framework could be solved by pooling eurozone debt.

“This will not work,” she said.

Later Wednesday, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will unveil a radical set of reforms designed to toughen the policing of member states’ budgets, laying the ground for the potential introduction of eurobonds.

However, Germany fears its ultra-low borrowing costs would rise sharply if its debt were pooled with other, less fiscally solid countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece.

But investors shunned Wednesday an issue of German 10-year bonds, considered the gold standard of eurozone debt, as the crisis continued to simmer.

Germany received bids for only €3.9 billion of its 10-year Bund, despite offering €6 billion, in what the German Finance Agency called a “reflection of the extraordinarily nervous market conditions.”

“It doesn’t mean any refinancing bottleneck for the budget,” insisted Jörg Müller, a finance agency spokesman.

However, analysts worried that the eurozone debt crisis was beginning to slip into the very core of the 17-nation zone, as the euro dropped sharply on the foreign exchange markets after the auction.

“There’s been a lot of talk lately that perhaps Germany isn’t the safe-haven that many people thought it was,” said UBS currency strategist Chris Walker.

Danske Bank chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen said the auction “reflects the deep mistrust to the euro project rather than a mistrust to German government bonds.”

He said: “As some investors say regarding the euro project – ‘if it is broke, then fix it’.”

At VTB capital in London, economist Neil MacKinnon commented that in the “latest bad news for the eurozone … Germany fails to get bids for 35 percent of 10-year bonds at this morning’s auction.”

He also noted from a document on the website of the European Central Bank that “the ECB is to lend $552 million to two un-named eurozone banks in a 6-day tender: the crisis is getting worse.”

AFP/The Local/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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