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Why Denmark won’t try to follow the UK out of the EU

With Brexit a reality, many point to Denmark as being the next country to follow suit but Danish experts say they are wrong.

Why Denmark won't try to follow the UK out of the EU
Photo: Bjørn Wylezich/Iris/Scanpix

As Europe woke up to the reality of Brexit on Thursday, much of the chatter centred on which countries might follow suit. Denmark is often suggested as a likely candidate, but a recent survey has shown Danes are far more positive about the EU than many believe.

The survey, carried out by broadcaster DR’s Undersøgende Databaseredaktion (Investigative Database Editorial Team), collated results from 40 years’ worth of annual opinion polls carried out by Eurobarometer in EU countries.

Even though Danes have a record of voting against the EU in referenda – most recently in December 2015’s vote on retaining exemption from legal clauses – the survey shows that their overall view of the EU is becoming more positive.

The study results show that, since the beginning of the 1990s, most other member countries have become more sceptical while Denmark has become more positive towards the EU.

In 1990, only 40 percent of Danes responded positively to Denmark’s membership of the EU, while this number was up to 60 percent in 2015.

See also: Five reasons Denmark should want Britain to stay in the EU

“This change in the Danish viewpoint is generally an unnoticed success story for the EU,” Catharina Sørensen, head of research with the Think Tank Europa (Tænketanken Europa), which was founded by the Danish Chamber of Commerce and trade union association CO-industri, told DR.

“It is characteristic of political debate to always say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the EU […] but voters have moved away from that debate,” Sørensen continued. “We are certainly still sceptical, but that hard form of scepticism relating to membership has evolved since the 1990s. Politically, we are locked into a yes-no debate. But voters left that behind a long time ago.”

Jørgen Goul Andersen, a political science professor at Aalborg University, told DR that while Danish EU-scepticism does exist, its form is fundamentally different from that seen in the United Kingdom. This means it is unlikely that Denmark will follow the UK's lead and vote to leave the union, he said.

The potential of Denmark being encouraged to leave the EU by a British ‘yes’ vote, given the Scandinavian nation’s form for voting against pro-EU motions in its own referenda, has been cited as a possible knock-on effect of Brexit.

Nigel Farage, leader of the nationalist and strongly anti-EU UK Independence Party, has claimed that Denmark would be at the head of the queue to follow the UK out of the EU should the ‘Leave’ campaign prevail.

Meanwhile, anti-Brexit voices have voiced concerns that the EU would be unlikely to give Britain favourable trade deals or free movement agreements after Brexit for fear of countries like Denmark following suit.

Last week, former Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt expressed opposite views to Farage, saying that she believes most Danes want to remain in the EU, even if they generally vote against closer ties.

“Everyone knows that the EU is not perfect, but deep down I think a lot of Danish know how much we gain economically, culturally in terms of our freedom by being part of the EU,” Spectator magazine reports Schmidt as saying at an event in London.

Andersen told DR that underlying attitudes towards Europe partly explained the difference in Danish and British perceptions of the EU.

“The British and Danish are often compared [with regard to the EU],” said Andersen. “But the British are chronically incorrigible. They will never be good Europeans. But Danes are actually good Europeans. There was a shift during the 1990s, when many of the old EU countries became more negative. But we have made big steps forward and become significantly more positive.”

“It’s gone unnoticed. It’s completely impossible to get through to mainstream debate the fact that Danes – compared with others – are very good Europeans,” continued Andersen.

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BREXIT

What Labour’s UK election win could mean for Brits in Europe

The UK's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has swept into Downing Street in a landslide victory. But how will a Labour government affect Brits in Europe? And what, if anything, will the former 'Remainer' do about Brexit?

What Labour's UK election win could mean for Brits in Europe

The Labour party won a landslide victory in the UK general election on Thursday, bringing an end to 14 years of Conservative party rule.

Labour majority

The new Labour government enters office at a time of high political and economic uncertainty, stagnant growth, public services pushed to breaking point, and Britain’s international reputation tarnished after the Conservative government staggered from calamity to calamity in recent years.

Leading up to the election, the question was not if Labour would win but when, and how big the majority will be. In the end Labour won one of the biggest landslides in British political history, taking 412 seats. 

What the new Labour government does (or more likely, doesn’t) do with its massive majority could have big implications on life for approximately 1.3 million UK nationals living throughout the EU.

Writing exclusively for The Local after his party’s election win, the UK’s new Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Britain would reset its ties with the EU.

“As the new British Foreign Secretary, with our Prime Minister Keir Starmer, this government will reset relations with Europe as a reliable partner, a dependable ally and a good neighbour.”

Lammy added: “We must do more to champion the ties between our people and our culture. Holidays, family ties, school and student exchanges, the arts, and sport (I was of course cheering on England in the Euros…). Thanks to this, our citizens benefit from the rich diversity of our continent.

“If we are to fulfil our ambitions for a reset, we must also improve Britain’s relationship with the European Union… I look forward to seeing Britain reconnect with our European neighbours in the years ahead.”

For many Brits in Europe (as well as those in the UK), the elephant in the room is, of course, Brexit.

Starmer and Labour’s Brexit policy

But what, if anything, does a Labour government actually mean for Brexit and Brits in Europe?

For many, Starmer first came to national prominence in his role as shadow Brexit secretary under former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. He was then an ardent Remainer, and largely responsible for Labour’s eventual position on a second referendum, demanding that the British people deserve a “confirmatory vote” on Europe.

How things have changed. In the build-up to the election Starmer categorically ruled out the idea of rejoining the single market and the customs union, let alone a second referendum on rejoining the EU. He has, however, stated that he will take steps to ease trade barriers and sign a bolstered security agreement with Brussels.

Asked recently by the British press if he could envision Britain re-entering the EU in his lifetime, Starmer was unequivocal. “No. I don’t think that that is going to happen,” he said. “I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union – or a return to freedom of movement.”

These comments sparked a certain amount of anger and disappointment among many Brits in Europe. Although they were made before the actual election with Starmer still in campaign mode.

In essence, despite his Remain-backing past, Starmer’s position seems to be that Labour can improve the Brexit deal signed by the Johnson government in January 2020, rather than tear it up or try and force the UK back into the EU on new terms.

For those hoping to rejoin the EU one day, this will be disappointing. Brexit became something of an internal psychodrama for the Conservative party, yet Starmer’s Labour appear to have accepted it as the political framework and don’t dare reopen the debate.

So for the hundreds of thousands of UK nationals living in Europe there will be no return of their freedom of movement and EU citizenship anytime soon.

So will Labour change anything for Brits in Europe?

Labour has been tight-lipped on what its Brexit policy will actually mean in practical terms, but of the few concrete proposals it has outlined so far there are plans to revamp a veterinary deal on animal products to ease on paperwork and border checks, as well as making it easier for qualifications to be recognised abroad.

Labour has also promised to enshrine rights to consular assistance for UK citizens abroad in cases of human rights violations, and to make reciprocal arrangements for touring artists and musicians moving between the UK and EU.

In terms of broad strokes commitments, however, it’s hardly ambitious.

Some economic experts have suggested that rejoining the single market or customs union would significantly boost the British economy, so some hold out hope that the political and economic reality may force the new Labour government to reconsider its position on Europe somewhere down the line.

What about the roll out of the the EU’s new EES border system?

Britons travelling to Europe will face likely travel disruption when the EU finally rolls out its new biometric border checks known as Entry/Exit System or just EES.

There had been much talk of the UK government trying to get the rollout delayed in a bid to avoid or at least postpone the likely chaos. Could Keir Starmer’s government put pressure on the EU to delay EES?

Well the main point to note is that it’s up to the EU when it rolls out EES, not the UK government. It is due to be launched in October or November although an exact date has not been announced. However if there is any delay it will likely be because of concerns on the EU side rather than because of pressure from the UK.

READ ALSO: When will Europe’s new EES passport system be launched?

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