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Nearly two thirds of voters think Seehofer ‘intolerable’

German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer's popularity has nosedived among voters, suggesting his explosive spat with Chancellor Angela Merkel over migration may have backfired.

Published: 16 July 2018 12:45 CEST

Nearly two thirds of voters think Seehofer 'intolerable'

"Troublemaker" German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. Photo:DPA

Nearly two thirds of Germans now see the minister as a 'troublemaker,' according to Monday's Forsa trend barometer. The same number, 62 percent, see him as 'no longer tolerable.'

Minister Seehofer has repeatedly made headlines in recent weeks by challenging Chancellor Merkel over her immigration policy, even threatening to resign after failing to gain guarantees of tougher policing along Germany's borders.

But with this explosive behavior, Seehofer, who is also leader of the Bavarian Christian Socialist Union (CSU), appears to have alienated both the electorate and his own party.

Among CSU voters, the number of those considering Seehofer no longer tolerable remains high at 56%, with less than half of the party’s followers considering him an upstanding politician.

Minister Seehofer is not the only CSU politician whose ratings have slipped.

Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder has clearly lost the trust of the public and has fallen with Seehofer to the bottom of the rankings.

The only people to come below the two CSU politicians in the popularity index are Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leaders Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland.

The poll will be unsettling for the CSU, which faces Bavarian state parliament elections in just three months.

But it will be welcomed by Chancellor Merkel, who remains the highest ranked politician amongst Bavarians and the wider country with a 47 point approval rating, as opposed to Söder’s 32 and Seehofer’s 31.

The poll suggests the only group with whom Seehofer remains popular is AfD voters, who are gleefully watching the damage he is inflicting upon the CSU.

“Seehofer only remains valued by AfD followers, who want to tackle the CSU,” Forsa boss Manfred Güllner told RTL.

Güllner laid the blame for Seehofer's popularity nosedive squarely at the minister's own feet.

Seehofer had gambled away his credibility among voters and within his own party during his series of recent controversial public appearances, Güllner added.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level.

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government.

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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