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Can Merkel hold on as chancellor after stepping down as CDU chief?

Angela Merkel will hand over the reins of her party to a successor at a conference on Friday but how long she can remain German chancellor remains an open question.

Published: 5 December 2018 11:41 CET
Can Merkel hold on as chancellor after stepping down as CDU chief?
Angela Merkel at a CDU party gathering in February. Photo: DPA

Merkel, who has led the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since 2000 and Germany since 2005, has expressed the desire to see out her fourth term until 2021.

However a number of scenarios could threaten that plan.

Settling of scores 

The most immediate risk could come in the form of old rival Friedrich Merz, whom Merkel muscled off the political stage more than a decade ago.

The charismatic corporate lawyer, 63, is now one of three main contenders to take the helm of the CDU and few believe he would be able to overcome his smouldering resentment to work together with Merkel for long.

“Merz can't stand to be in a room with Merkel for one minute — he has always said that behind closed doors,” said Michael Bröcker, editor of the daily Rheinische Post and close CDU watcher.

A swift end to the Merkel era would also be highly likely if Health Minister Jens Spahn, 38, an outspoken critic of her refugee policy, wins the CDU chairmanship.    

Hence she must hope her favoured heir apparent, CDU general secretary and Merkel loyalist Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, can unite a majority behind her in the tight race.

SEE ALSO: Germany looks beyond Merkel as party prepares to elect successor

Risky polls 

European Union elections in May, in which mainstream parties are expected to lose further ground to the extremes, are also likely to put Merkel's unwieldy “grand coalition” to the test.

Her already fragile alliance with the weakened Social Democrats (SPD) could crumble in the wake of a further poll debacle, triggering new German elections.

With three key state polls to follow in 2019 in the ex-communist east, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has built up strong support on a “Merkel-must-go” platform, the CDU might seek to staunch the bleeding by ousting her beforehand.

But even if she hangs on until those regional elections, grim scores in any of them could also force her from office — particularly a possible AfD win in the unsettled state of Saxony.

SPD in disarray 

Political scientist Eckhard Jesse of the University of Chemnitz says with all the factors she is up against, it is “nearly unthinkable” that Merkel will hold on for another three years.

SEE ALSO: Greens will replace SPD in long term, says pollster

He cites the sorry state of the SPD as one of the biggest risk factors largely beyond her control, as Germany's oldest party struggles with ideological infighting and a voter exodus.

The SPD sees its alliance with Merkel — who has co-opted many of its positions and squeezed it out of the political centre — as one of the main sources of its woes.

Many party members see jumping ship as the SPD's only hope — a move that would deprive Merkel of a ruling majority.

Such a move could come as soon as after the European elections, or following a planned members' referendum on the “grand coalition” government at midterm in autumn 2019. 

It would then be up to Merkel's successor at the head of the CDU to either try to find new partners, or carry the party banner into new elections. 

SEE ALSO: Merkel: 'People's parties are in danger' 

By Deborah Cole

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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