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POLITICS

New survey: Here’s how Swedes would vote if an election were held today

A new political survey shows a boost for the Christian Democrats at the expense of Sweden's other right-wing parties.

New survey: Here's how Swedes would vote if an election were held today
The leader of the Christian Democrats, Ebba Busch-Thor. Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

The Christian Democrats improved their result the most in Statistics Sweden's major party sympathy survey, climbing 6.7 percentage points since Sweden's general election in September – and a whopping 10.1 percentage points compared to the same survey a year ago.

This would put the party at 13 percent of the vote if an election were held today, a significant share for what is normally one of the smaller right-wing parties in parliament.

The charisma of party leader Ebba Busch-Thor and her uncompromising stance on a number of issues appear to have won the party support. However, the party performed worse than expected in last month's European election, with 8.62 percent of the vote, after questions were raised over its views on abortion.

EUROPEAN ELECTION:

The Christian Democrats' gains in the new Statistics Sweden survey primarily came from former supporters of the Moderates – long seen as the leader of Sweden's centre-right bloc – and the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats.

Sweden's ruling centre-left party, the Social Democrats, were the winners of Statistics Sweden's party sympathy poll with 27.6 percent of respondents saying they would vote for them if an election were to be held today.


The new survey compared to the parties' results in the last Swedish parliamentary election. From left, Centre Party, Liberals, Moderates, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens and Sweden Democrats. Photo: Statistics Sweden

The Sweden Democrats remained at more or less the same score as in September, but still overtook the Moderate Party, which dropped from 19.8 percent in the election to 16 percent today.

Sweden's 2018 election – followed by a long period without a government and tough negotiations – began a redrawing of the country's political map, and it is still not clear where the chips will ultimately fall.

The Centre Party and the Liberals' legislative pact with the Green Party and Social Democrats solved the government negotiation conflict, but infuriated its old Moderate and Christian Democrat partners.

READ ALSO: What does Sweden's government deal mean for internationals?

As for the Sweden Democrats, they have made no secret of the fact that they would like to be seen as part of a new conservative bloc with the Moderates and Christian Democrats. Such a bloc would get 46.1 percent of the vote if an election were held today, according to Statistics Sweden.

For the party sympathy survey, pollsters asked a total of 4,500 respondents in May which party they would vote for if a parliamentary election were to be held in the next few days.

Sweden's next general election will be held in September 2022.

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POLITICS

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

Sweden has won the fight against inflation and expects GDP to grow next year, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson proudly proclaimed as she presented the government's budget bill for 2025.

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

“Going forward, the task will be to ensure that high inflation does not return, and at the same time to implement reforms and investments that build a more prosperous, safer and more secure Sweden for generations to come,” said Svantesson in a statement on Thursday morning.

The government predicts that Swedish GDP will grow 2.5 percent next year followed by 3.2 percent 2026.

Unemployment, however, is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3 percent in 2025, only beginning to drop in 2026 (7.9 percent, according to the government’s predictions, followed by 7.6 percent in 2027).

Svantesson told a press conference that a strong focus on economic growth would create jobs.

The 2025 budget, worked out in collaboration between the right-wing government coalition and far-right Sweden Democrats, is far more expansionary than the restrained budget Svantesson presented last year when Sweden was still fighting high inflation: 60 billion kronor towards new reforms rather than 39 billion kronor for 2024. Almost half, 27 billion kronor, will go towards funding lower taxes.

ANALYSIS:

Svantesson highlighted three areas in which new reforms are prioritised:

  • Strengthening household purchasing power after several years of the high cost of living putting a strain on household budgets, with reforms set to push the tax burden to its lowest level since 1980, according to the government.
  • Reinstating the “work first” principle, meaning that people should work rather than live on benefits. Some of the measures include language training for parents born abroad and increasing the number of places in vocational adult education.
  • Increasing growth, focusing on investments in research, infrastructure and electricity supply.

In the debate in parliament on Thursday, the centre-left opposition is expected to criticise the government for lowering taxes for high earners and not investing enough in welfare. 

Investments in healthcare, social care and education are significantly reduced in this budget compared to last year: down from 16 billion kronor to 7.5 billion kronor. 

Meanwhile, the hike of the employment tax credit (jobbskatteavdraget) – a tax reduction given to people who pay tax on their job income – is expected to lead to a 3,671 kronor tax cut for people on the median salary of 462,000 kronor per year.

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