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Sweden’s central bank keeps interest rate low amid trade conflicts and Brexit uncertainty

Sweden's central bank said on Thursday that its interest rate, which has stayed below a historic zero since the beginning of 2015, will remain unchanged for now amid global uncertainty.

Sweden's central bank keeps interest rate low amid trade conflicts and Brexit uncertainty
Stefan Ingves, head of Sweden's central bank. Photo: Karin Wesslén/TT

“GDP growth abroad, which has been strong for several years, has now slowed and is expected in the coming years to be approximately in line with a historical average,” said the Riksbank in a statement.

The bank said it would stick with plans announced in July to raise the country's key interest rate, the repo, later this year. However, it also downplayed future expectations, and said it would raise the repo rate at a slower rate than previously predicted, with only a modest hike from -0.25 to -0.23 percent up ahead.

“During the year (…) sentiment has worsened, due in part to the trade conflict between the United States and China and the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom's exit from the EU,” it said. “Market rates have fallen substantially and inflation expectations have also fallen, above all in the euro area.”

READ ALSO: What the weak Swedish krona means for international workers

Sweden's weak krona got a boost from the announcement, with the currency growing 0.06-0.07 kronor against both the euro and the dollar on Thursday. Many observers had expected the Riksbank to completely abandon plans to raise the repo rate this year, as the rate of inflation is generally predicted to remain low.

READ ALSO: How Sweden's cost of living compares to the rest of Europe

The bank first took the landmark decision to slash the rate below zero in February 2015, hoping that the strategy would boost inflation to raise the price of everyday goods and services which had been stagnant in recent years, and therefore improve the Nordic nation's economic prospects.

It raised it from a record -0.50 to -0.25 in December last year as the inflation rate approached the target two percent, but it has since remained unchanged. The bank said it planned to raise it above zero in 2020.

Read the full Riksbank report here.

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MONEY

How to protect your Swedish savings when the stock market tumbles

Recent stock market developments have made consumers in Sweden worried about the savings they have invested in the market.

How to protect your Swedish savings when the stock market tumbles

Stock market volatility can be unsettling, especially when it hits close to home.

On Monday, the Stockholm stock exchange mirrored global market turmoil, with the OMXS index dropping 4.8 percent in morning trading. By 11 am, there was a slight recovery, but the index remained 2.6 percent down.

READ MORE: Stockholm stock exchange opens in the red amid global market jitters

Big names in Swedish industry weren’t spared: Boliden, a major mining company, dropped 3 percent, defence giant Saab fell 1.5 percent, and engineering firm Sandvik declined by 2.6 percent. In the banking sector, SEB took a 2.4 percent hit, while Swedbank dropped 3.6 percent.

This turbulence in the Swedish market came after significant drops in Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, which experienced its most significant one-day fall since the 1987 Black Monday Crash, and similar declines in markets across South Korea, Frankfurt, London, and anticipated losses on Wall Street.

In these uncertain times, many Swedish consumers with money invested in the market wonder whether they should do something to safeguard their savings.

Avoid impulsive decisions, expert warns

Stock market volatility can raise concerns about the safety of your savings, but according to SEB household economist Américo Fernández, there’s no need to panic.

“Should they be worried? I mean, no. I would say that this is how the stock market works: there’s a lot of uncertainty and risk connected,” he told The Local. 

“When you have savings on the global stock exchanges, this will happen, especially when we’ve had at least six months of really, really good returns – maybe even too good. Then, this is a little bit expected.

“But of course, it’s always dramatic when we have such developments in the stock market in just one or two days.”

Slow and steady wins the (investment) race

For those wondering how to protect themselves against such crashes, Fernández emphasised a consistent and steady approach to investing.

“The most common thing, the best strategy for the broad masses, is to save on a monthly basis. And this is what many Swedes do; our surveys show that 9 out of 10 Swedes save on the stock market every month. This is precisely what you should do: invest in a mutual fund, which is quite common in Sweden,” he said.

“In circumstances such as these, you buy more at a lower price, instead of timing the stock market, which is almost impossible, continue your monthly investments through mutual funds. That’s a good way of diversifying your portfolio.”

READ ALSO: Will the krona’s decline stop Riksbank from cutting rates?

Ignore the alarmist headlines

The SEB household economist also advised against reacting hastily to alarming headlines.

“Another thing that households should be aware of is that when you see alarming headlines, you should sit and calmly ride the wave out.

“It’s understandable that a lot of people are affected by herd mentality when we have these negative headlines. Everyone, but especially households with tiny savings, acts and sells, and then they buy again when the headlines are positive, when the stock exchange is at high levels…

“That is the opposite of what you should do. Try to neglect these things and be cool in these circumstances, even though it seems bad and hurts your wallet. However, if it hurts your wallet too much, that might be a signal that you have too much money in the stock market (laughs), which can be common for younger investors. Although they have had it pretty good recently,” he noted.

This advice is not only applicable to Sweden but also relevant across Scandinavia, according to Fernández.

“I think it’s applicable. Across Scandinavia, all Nordic countries save a lot of money on the stock exchange, partially because the pension system isn’t fully funded by the government,” he said.

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