Read news from:
Austria
SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

Thuringia set to elect new state leader after far-right vote debacle

Lawmakers in the eastern German state of Thuringia will try again to elect a new state premier Wednesday, re-running a vote that sank Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU party into what has been described as the biggest crisis in its history.

Published: 4 March 2020 09:07 CET
Updated: 4 March 2020 10:24 CET
Thuringia set to elect new state leader after far-right vote debacle
AfD supporters protest outside the Thuringian state parliament with a flag that says: 'We are the people'. Photo: DPA

It is the second attempt in a month to form a working government in the former East German state, after CDU MPs there unleashed an earthquake in national politics by voting with the far-right AfD in February.

Amid the national outrage, the liberal candidate elected during the first vote on February 5 stepped down, leaving the state rudderless.

But more significantly, the apparent cooperation of CDU politicians with the far-right triggered the departure of Merkel's designated successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and sparked a new leadership contest for the German chancellor's party.

The race to a new CDU leadership election on April 25th is a fresh struggle for control between supporters of the chancellor's centrist course and those who believe the party must tack right.

But so far none has offered a convincing answer to the CDU's conundrum in Thuringia, squeezed between the extremes of left and right.

Popular local politician and former state premier Bodo Ramelow of the far-left Die Linke is now up against far-right firebrand Björn Höcke, with Merkel's conservatives once again the reluctant kingmakers.

READ ALSO:

New force on the right

A fundamental article of faith for the CDU during its decades of dominance of German politics since 1949 was that no political force could be allowed to emerge to its right.

It long provided a home for hardliners on issues like immigration, integration and refugees.

The Left's Bodo Ramelow last month. Photo: DPA

But Merkel has shifted the party to closer to the centre.

The repeated rescue programmes for Greece during the eurozone crisis and above all, Merkel's decision to allow in more than one million migrants and refugees since 2015 stoked the rise of the AfD.

The far-right is especially strong in Germany's former communist east, which did not go through the same process of facing up to its Nazi past as the democratic west.

Graph prepared for The Local by Statista.

Double-digit scores for AfD in state elections in recent years have made it increasingly tough to build working coalitions that shut out both far right and the radical-left Left party.

With the party leadership – and likely the candidacy for the chancellorship in 2021 – now up for grabs, those tensions are boiling to the surface.

Some contenders such as long-time Merkel rival Friedrich Merz are advocating a return to the party's conservative roots and winning back voters lost to AfD.

Meanwhile moderates argue the party cannot hope to hang on to masses of centrist supporters if it abandons Merkel's course.

Impossible choice

With no majority possible in Thuringia without either AfD or the Left, the state has become a unique crucible for the CDU's repeated declarations that it would work with neither.

Earlier this month, its MPs voted with AfD to install Thomas Kemmerich from the liberal FDP as state premier, ousting popular Left premier Ramelow.

Faced with national outrage at the unprecedented alliance, the Thuringian CDU branch immediately backed down and its leader quit, but it remains confronted with an impossible choice.

The AfD's Björn Höcke congratulating the FDP's Thomas Kemmerich after the first vote that sparked outrage. Photo: DPA

“CDU votes for a Left party candidate are unacceptable,” moderate party leadership contender Armin Laschet said Sunday, echoing conservative rivals like Merz.

Tilman Kuban, leader of the party's national youth wing, even suggested Monday that MPs “leave the chamber” during the state premier vote to avoid the impression they had cooperated with AfD or the Left.

If Ramelow — whose previous broad left coalition is four votes short of a majority — fails to secure a mandate as state premier, the result will likely be more months with no regional government in Thuringia until fresh elections.

Meanwhile there is little chance of AfD contender Höcke winning.

One of the most radical voices within AfD, the former history teacher's rhetoric includes calls for “tempered inhumanity” in removing non-ethnic Germans from the country.

Such declarations have placed him beyond the pale even for the more hardline eastern CDU branches.

By Kit Holden

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

SHOW COMMENTS