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Merkel’s CDU sidelined as Left party wins closely watched east German vote

Politicians in the eastern German state of Thuringia re-elected a former state premier Wednesday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU party sitting out the vote after a first try sank it into a deep crisis.

Published: 4 March 2020 17:18 CET
Updated: 5 March 2020 09:21 CET
Merkel's CDU sidelined as Left party wins closely watched east German vote
The Left's Bodo Ramelow. Photo: DPA

Popular former state premier Bodo Ramelow, of the radical-left Die Linke party, was returned to power, despite falling four votes short of an absolute majority after the centre-right CDU abstained.

It was the second attempt in a month to form a working government in the former East German state, after CDU MPs there set off an earthquake in national politics by voting with the far-right AfD in the first vote on February 5th.

The unprecedented alliance with the far-right triggered the departure of Merkel's designated successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and sparked a new leadership contest for the German chancellor's party.

Amid the national outrage, elected liberal candidate Thomas Kemmerich immediately stepped down, leaving the state rudderless.

As Wednesday's rerun of the vote pitted the far-left Ramelow against far-right firebrand Björn Höcke, the only viable option left for the CDU was to abstain in order to hold to its national edict of not cooperating with either extreme.

“We are returning to stable conditions,” said Ramelow , adding that Thuringia had “overcome a crisis of democratic legitimation”.

He refused to shake Höcke's hand after the vote, accusing him and his party of being “arsonists” who were “stamping on democracy”.

Bodo Ramelow refuses to shake Björn Höcke's hand. Photo: DPA

READ ALSO: Thuringia set to elect new state leader after far-right vote debacle

New force on the right

A fundamental article of faith for the CDU during its decades of dominance over German politics since 1949 was that no political force could be allowed to emerge to its right.

But Merkel has shifted the party closer to the centre.

The repeated rescue programmes for Greece during the eurozone crisis and above all Merkel's decision to allow in more than one million migrants and refugees since 2015 stoked the rise of the AfD.

Double-digit scores for AfD in state elections in the East in recent years have made it increasingly tough to build working coalitions that shut out both extremes.

With the party leadership – and likely the candidacy for the chancellorship in 2021 – now up for grabs, those tensions are boiling up to the surface.

The race to a new CDU leadership election on April 25 is a fresh struggle for control between supporters of the chancellor's centrist course and those who believe the party must tack right.

Crucible

With no majority possible in Thuringia without either AfD or Die Linke, the state became a unique crucible for the CDU's repeated declarations that it would work with neither.

In Wednesday's re-run, Ramelow had initially hoped to persuade individual CDU MPs to edge him to the absolute majority needed in the first two rounds, threatening to otherwise call fresh elections.

Yet he changed strategy on Wednesday morning as conservatives railed against a potential cooperation with the far-left.

“CDU votes for a Linke party candidate are unacceptable,” moderate party leadership contender Armin Laschet said Sunday, echoing conservative rivals like long-time Merkel rival Friedrich Merz.

Yet after the CDU's abstention on Wednesday, Hoecke accused them of “holding open the door” for Ramelow, and claimed that the former East German Communist Party SED had “risen again”.

One of the most radical voices within AfD, the former history teacher's rhetoric includes calls for “tempered inhumanity” in removing non-ethnic Germans from the country.

Such statements placed him beyond the pale even for the more hardline eastern CDU branches.

On Wednesday, parliamentary president Birgit Keller opened the sitting with a tribute to the victims of a deadly racist attack in neighbouring state Hesse two weeks ago.

Ramelow is now expected to lead a minority government until new elections in April 2021, in a compromise agreed with the CDU at the height of the crisis two weeks ago.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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