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Germany’s Social Democrats take surprise lead in election poll

Germany's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) edged ahead in the race towards September elections on Tuesday, beating Angela Merkel's conservatives in a poll for the first time since 2006.

Published: 24 August 2021 16:03 CEST
Germany's Social Democrats take surprise lead in election poll
Olaf Scholz, the SPD's candidate for chancellor, on the campaign trail in Karlsruhe on Monday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Philipp von Ditfurth

The survey of 2,504 people for the NTV broadcaster had the centre-left party in the lead on 23 percent, with Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance (known as the Union) trailing behind on 22 percent.

The Greens scored 18 percent in the poll, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) scored 12 percent and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) managed 10 percent. The Left party trailed behind with six percent in the latest poll. 

READ ALSO: After Merkel – who could be next in line to lead Germany?

The two parties – the. Union and the SPD – are currently in a governing coalition led by the conservatives, with Merkel due to step aside after elections on September 26th.

The CDU-CSU alliance enjoyed a strong lead in the polls going into the summer, but has been on the back foot amid a series of missteps from Armin Laschet, the conservative candidate to succeed Merkel.

In July, Laschet was pictured laughing in the background with local officials while Germany’s president gave a speech mourning the victims of deadly floods.

Since the disaster, the conservatives have been unable to halt a falling trend in popularity.

READ ALSO: German chancellor candidate Laschet loses favour with voters: poll

The Greens, who enjoyed a surge in support earlier in the year, have also failed to regain momentum after their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock was embroiled in a plagiarism scandal.

READ ALSO: Election 2021: Germany’s Greens holding onto hope for change after Merkel

Until a few weeks ago, the SPD had been polling so badly that many had written off the possibility that it would be part of the next government.

But surveys last week already showed the centre-left party neck-and-neck with the conservatives, who have led Germany in four coalitions since 2005 when Merkel took office.

A survey published Friday also showed 41 percent of voters would prefer the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz to be the next chancellor, compared with just 16 percent for Laschet.

Scholz is the current Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor – and may appeal to voters who are searching for a stable Angela Merkel-type figure. 

Merkel is bowing out of politics at the upcoming election after leading the country for nearly 16 years. 

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

Published: 19 September 2024 09:11 CEST
ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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