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POLITICS

OPINION: Germany’s bewildering Covid rules show fierce regionalism is alive and well

Long before today’s Federal Republic, Germany was always a country of stark regional differences. Nowhere has this been more striking than in the handling of the Covid crisis, which has often resulted in bizarre local laws, writes Brian Melican.

Markus Söder
Markus Söder (CSU), state premier of Bavaria, sits at his desk to announce the latest round of Covid regulations after the summer break. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Peter Kneffel

Writing when she travelled the German lands in 1716, Mary Wortley Montagu remarked that it was “impossible not to observe the difference between the free towns and those under the government of absolute princes, as all the little sovereigns of Germany are.” A good 300 years later, one might be tempted to make a similar observation: in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the state premiers and mayors of the 16 states in Germany have been ruling by decree since late March 2020 – and each has been decreeing rather differently from the other.

Not that the historical analogy is perfect: currently, all of Germany’s “little sovereigns” enjoy something close to absolute power, as, under the state of emergency declared 18 months back, executive orders to combat the virus don’t pass through the usual parliamentary channels. And, ironically, when it comes to Covid regulations, the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg (named in reference to the old tradition of self-governing “free towns” as opposed to places under monarchical rule), is actually the most restrictive place in Germany.

That’s right: throughout 2021, Hamburg – once considered the country’s most licentious city and in possession of an iconic Soho-style backstreet named “Große Freiheit” (“Great Freedom”) – has consistently been the strictest when it comes to curbing personal freedoms to fight the pandemic. While people elsewhere in Germany were getting angry about the proposed 10pm curfew back in April, for instance, many Hamburgers were hoping the legislation would be passed so it could replace the 9pm curfew already put in place by our Mayor, Peter Tschentscher.

Lockdown in Hamburg
Hamburg’s Schanzenviertel during the Covid curfew. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Daniel Bockwoldt

The strangest thing about differences in coronavirus regulations between states, however, is not the varying degree of strictness, but rather the sheer oddity of the innumerable permutations of busy-body details – often imposed with precious little grounding in any of the widely available knowledge about the virus. Yes, German federalism is so strong that its practitioners seem to actually believe it changes the rules of physics.

Regional coronavirus restrictions: the devil is in the detail

As I noted on holiday last week, in restaurants in Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, it seems to have become a requirement that four-person tables be set with couples sat next to each other, leaving the two chairs opposite them empty to ensure that there is enough distance between them and the next couple (who are of course sitting with their backs to them). Couples looking to dine together or families with children have to find a restaurant happy to leave a whole table empty between them and any other groups. Clearly, in the fiefdom of Manuela Schwesig – Mecklenburg’s state premier – aerosols only spread in one direction.

Or let’s take North Rhine-Westphalia, which opened its swimming pools earlier than Hamburg back in spring, but where, as I discovered on a brief visit in September, coronavirus is so contagious that masks have to be worn not only on entry (like in Hamburg) but also from changing cabins to poolside. Whether you are actually allowed to take them off in the showers (usually situated between cabins and the water’s edge) and where it best to put them to avoid them becoming wet (and thus, according to medical professionals, ineffective) is a lively area of debate for the state’s public health officials, swimmers, and Germany’s answer to Baywatch lifeguards: the Bademeister.

And then there’s Hamburg, where, unlike in nearby MeckPom or neighbouring Schleswig-Holstein, you apparently can catch coronavirus outside from somebody standing several feet away and therefore have to wear a mask at open-air markets. That’s unless you are a vendor, of course, in which case you are no longer a danger to yourself or your customers and may remove your mask.

Diners in Schwerin
Diners sit at a distance from one another at a restaurant in Schwerin. In Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, it seems aerosols only travel in one direction. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Ulrich Perrey

Far be it from me to question Mr. Tschentscher’s understanding of how virus transmission works (he was a doctor before becoming mayor), but it feels more than just a little unscientific to be wearing a mask outside in the fresh air while being sold a turnip by someone without one. Then again, they say that Hamburg has always been in hock to the interests of its merchant class, so I suppose it should be no surprise that, when the usual rules of democracy are suspended, people selling things end up with more rights than those buying them…

READ ALSO:

Not just Covid: Germany’s Bundesländer like having their cake and eating it

There’s nothing more German than fierce regionalism – and few things more German than never-ending debate about whether this is an advantageous or detrimental characteristic. The most German thing, though, is for states to delegate downwards and blame upwards. And now that, on November 25th, the federally mandated state of emergency is set to expire, all of these mechanisms are on full display.

The fierce regionalism can be seen in the fact that, even with nationwide legislation in place since late March 2020, Germany’s 16 states have managed to install a truly bewildering array of contradictory public health regulations. And when it comes to the debate about federalism, politicians, scientists, and pundits like myself have spent countless hours discussing whether minimal differences in coronavirus regulations between states represent a fruitful environment in which to gather data or are actually the hallmark of a Banana Republic. And then there’s the way states have managed to shift the blame for unpopular decisions onto Berlin, in which Corona is a masterclass.

Indeed, as November 25th approaches, the state premiers and mayors have been taking to the airwaves to demand both that nationwide laws be kept and that they must be able to set their own measures against the virus. Daniel Günther’s recent cryptic demands are symptomatic of this. Confused? Behind the doublespeak it’s actually very simple: what they want is to be able to continue mandating potentially unpopular measures as they see fit while claiming that they have no choice because of federal legislation. If they actually have to get their own parliaments and senates to pass laws, they might also have to explain the rationale behind them (which, as we have seen, may be somewhat dubious) – and put their weight behind divisive policies.

Angela Merkel and Daniel Günther
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) with Schleswig-Holstein state premier Daniel Günther. Covid has been a masterclass in shifting responsibility from the states to the federal government. Photo: picture alliance / Carsten Rehder/dpa | Carsten Rehder

Yet when it comes to federalism, coronavirus is not revealing anything we didn’t already know. From big issues like the structure of school systems down to the minutiae of how smoking bans are implemented, each and every part of Germany thinks it knows better than all the others; but if something goes wrong or is unpopular, it’s Berlin’s or Brussels’ fault. Take Bavaria’s tortured health policy history, where back in 2009, for instance, the state’s then health minister – a certain Markus Söder – voluntarily imposed Germany’s strictest smoking ban before blaming Brussels for making him introduce a smoking ban at all after his party lost vote share.

So it’s hardly surprising that, now as one of Germany’s “little sovereigns”, Söder is trying to pull off the same trick with coronavirus restrictions. As long has he and the other 15 heads of states are allowed to behave like “absolute princes”, they’ll get to avoid debate about exactly which of their measures against Covid are sensible and which are just pointless. November 25th won’t – and can’t yet – be “Freedom Day”, but it cannot come soon enough.

READ ALSO: OPINION: Germany is showing the world it can do grown-up politics

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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